Disappearing acres: America could lose more than 18M acres of farmland by 2040, according to new report (2024)

Farmland sustains life around the country, but it’s disappearing as cities grow.

American Farmland Trust (AFT) took a deep dive into the numbers. What the nonprofit organization found is the losses will only continue without action.

“Well-managed farmland supports wildlife and biodiversity, cleans our water, increases resilience to natural disasters like floods and fire, and helps to combat the changing climate,” according to AFT.

The organization says we’ll never achieve climate goals by just reducing emissions. America needs to retain farmland and actively manage it to draw down carbon from the air.

American Farmland Trust recently compiled a report titled “Farmlands Under Threat.” The organization’s second farmland-based initiative shows the number of shrinking acres is sobering.

“It’s difficult to absorb,” said Angie Doucette, Midwest farmland protection manager for AFT. “The Midwest has some of the richest and most productive agricultural lands in the nation. Our recent ‘Farmlands Under Threat’ Initiative shows a serious problem with our farmland.”

The continued growth of urban development and what the organization calls low-density residential development are eating away at some of the most productive farmland in the world. That first report showed that between 2001 and 2016, the Midwest lost over 1.1 million acres of farmland across seven states, and the trend is continuing.

To define the terms, Urban and Highly-Developed (UHD) land use include commercial, industrial, and moderate-to-high density residential areas. Low-density residential (LDR) land use includes scattered subdivisions and large-lot housing, which fragments the agricultural land base and limits production.

The Plains states are losing some of the most prime farmland in America, according to AFT.

Kristopher Reynolds is the Midwest regional director with AFT.

“The Farmland Under Threat report took a look at the problem from three policy pathways America can take,” Reynolds said. “Business as Usual, which builds off the previous report as we predict what happens by 2040. Runaway Sprawl, which means land is developed at a less efficient rate than business as usual, in which low-density housing sweeps into the countryside and displaces farmers and ranchers.

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“The third is what we call Better Built Cities,” he added. “Policymakers and land-use planners can promote more compact development and reduce sprawl, saving irreplaceable farmland and ranchland from conversion.”

The second farmland initiative is AFT’s first attempt at predicting the future of farm loss. The first report took a look at what America had lost over 15 years. Here’s how much farmland AFT is predicting America will lose by 2040.

The old cliché about the high demand for farmland is “we aren’t making any more of it.” In fact, between 2001 and 2016, AFT says America lost 11 million acres of farmland.

In the Business as Usual option, 18.4 million acres will get converted, which is an area about the size of South Carolina. In Runaway Sprawl, the losses could climb to 24.4 million acres, with more than one million acres paved over or compromised every year. However, in the Better Built Cities Plan, policymakers and planners can slash conversion by 55% and save up to 13.5 million acres.

“In Nebraska, for example, with the Business as Usual policy in place, we are projecting that the state will lose almost 104,000 acres of farmland by 2040,” Reynolds said. “Over 80% of that number includes Nebraska’s best farmland. The hardest-hit counties will be the ones around Omaha and Lincoln.”

Runaway Sprawl policies will mean losing almost 124,000 acres in Nebraska. The Better Built Cities policy will limit the loss to 64,000 acres by 2040.

“South Dakota is projected to lose a total of almost 157,000 acres if we go the Business as Usual route,” he said. “There’s a little bit of difference from Nebraska in that roughly about 50 percent of that number is considered to be South Dakota’s best farmland.”

Runaway Sprawl will lead to losing 215,000 acres across South Dakota while the Better Built Cities plan will limit it to 87,000 acres. The numbers are gloomy in other states as well.

Business as Usual means losing almost 200,000 acres in Kansas, almost 370,000 in Minnesota, and 184,000 in Iowa by 2040. When put under the Rapid Sprawl umbrella, those numbers only get worse. Once that land is gone, Doucette says the chances of it ever coming back into production for growing food are “slim to none.”

“That’s what is so significant about this data,” she said. “Once that land gets converted, it’s gone forever. Our food security and the affordability of our food supply take a direct hit when that land gets lost to urban development.”

While the numbers are gloomy, she says America can drastically limit the number of farmland acres lost every year between now and 2040. The tools do exist to protect America’s farmland.

“By embracing smart growth, permanently protecting agricultural land, and supporting the next generation of farmers, we can save 1.8 million acres of farmland in this Better Built Cities Smart Growth Urban Investment scenario. And that’s just in the Midwest alone.”

More information, including interactive maps, is available at farmland.org

Chad Smith can be reached at editorial@midwestmessenger.com.

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Disappearing acres: America could lose more than 18M acres of farmland by 2040, according to new report (2)

Chad Smith

Chad started out as a radio broadcaster for 22 years, then made the switch to full-time freelance journalism. He grew up working on the family dairy farm, and enjoys staying busy with his wife and six children. Reach him at editorial@midwestmessenger.com.

Disappearing acres: America could lose more than 18M acres of farmland by 2040, according to new report (2024)

FAQs

Disappearing acres: America could lose more than 18M acres of farmland by 2040, according to new report? ›

In Runaway Sprawl, the losses could climb to 24.4 million acres, with more than one million acres paved over or compromised every year. However, in the Better Built Cities Plan, policymakers and planners can slash conversion by 55% and save up to 13.5 million acres.

How much farmland has America lost? ›

More than 31 million acres of U.S. agricultural land have been irrevocably lost to urban expansion since 1982 and an additional 175 acres of farm and ranchland are lost every hour to make way housing and other industries. The land that is being lost is some of the most productive agricultural land in the country.

How many acres of farmland does the US lose a year? ›

In 2021 alone, the US lost 1.3 million acres of farmland. According to the US Department of Agriculture, the total land used for farming decreased from 896.6M acres in 2020 to 895.3M in 2021.

What does the United States lose 2000 acres of everyday? ›

The Farms Under Threat: The State of the States report from American Farmland Trust estimates an average of 2,000 acres of farmland are converted each day.

Why is farmland acreage decreasing? ›

New study says California's farmland is shrinking due to years-long severe drought - CBS Sacramento.

Is farmland disappearing in the US? ›

Disappearing acres: America could lose more than 18M acres of farmland by 2040, according to new report. Farmland sustains life around the country, but it's disappearing as cities grow.

Why is the US losing farmland? ›

One of the main reasons behind this trend is urbanization. Cities and towns are expanding into previously rural areas. And that often involves the conversion of farmland into residential, commercial or industrial land uses.

How many acres became waste land? ›

The “Yearbook of Agriculture” for 1934 announces, “Approximately 35 million acres of formerly cultivated land have essentially been destroyed for crop production…. 100 million acres now in crops have lost all or most of the topsoil; 125 million acres of land now in crops are rapidly losing topsoil….”

How many farms are lost every year? ›

The nation lost more than 100,000 farms between 2011 and 2018; 12,000 of those between 2017 and 2018 alone.

How much of US land is farmland? ›

Farms and Land

These farms accounted for 900.2 million acres of land in farms, or 40 percent of all U.S. land.

How much land in the U.S. is abandoned? ›

Nationally, an average 16.7% of large US cities' land area is considered vacant, with approximately 4% of city addresses unoccupied. The ratio of vacant land to city size has increased by 1.3 percentage points since 1998 but decreased by 3 percentage points since 1963.

Will there be enough food in the year 2050? ›

June 2, 2022 -- By 2050, we will need to produce as much as 56% more food than we did in 2010 to feed the world's growing population. While experts agree we can do it using current farming and production practices, it could be catastrophic for the planet.

How long does farmland last? ›

ROME (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Generating three centimeters of top soil takes 1,000 years, and if current rates of degradation continue all of the world's top soil could be gone within 60 years, a senior UN official said on Friday.

Is the population growing but US farm acreage declining? ›

The US farming base has shrunk 7% in eight years, yet the world population is continuously growing. The number of farms has also declined over the past eight years by an estimated 117,500 farms.

Why farmers are selling their land? ›

Financial Reasons Owners Sell Farmland

Sometimes a seller just wants to realize their gains in asset appreciation or trade land for cash to invest in another opportunity. For example, a landowner may find a desirable property and want to sell out of one piece of land to invest in the new one.

Why is farming declining? ›

His analysis found that the number of farms around the world would drop from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100. A key reason: As a country's economy grows, more people migrate to urban areas, leaving fewer people in rural areas to tend the land.

How much farmland will there be in 2050? ›

The availability of arable land. Data source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Bank. The per capita arable land worldwide was 0.42 hectares in 1960. It will be 0.19 hectares in 2050.

How many farms are left in the US? ›

Here is other noteworthy farmland data, courtesy of USDA's Farms and Land in Farms 2022 Summary. 2.003 million: The number of U.S. farms, which is down 9,350 farms from 2021.

Is Texas losing farmland? ›

The vast majority of Texas land — 83 percent — is part of a farm, ranch or forest. But Texas is losing such rural land more than any other state, in large part because of the exploding growth of metropolitan areas, according to newly released data.

Why is the US losing soil? ›

Climate change, the spread of intensive agriculture, deforestation and industrial activity have accelerated the loss of soils in almost every country in the world.

What is the US farm problem? ›

The farm problem in the United States historically has been considered to be one of relatively low farm incomes. This problem can be traced in large measure to the destabilizing effects of economic growth.

What is most responsible for the loss of farmland in the developing world? ›

Hatfield says urbanization and soil degradation from excessive tillage and other farming practices are largely to blame for lost farm and ranchlands.

Which state has the largest waste land? ›

Rajasthan tops the chart with 25% of its geographical area being wasteland, accounting for 18% of the wasteland nationally.

Which is the largest waste land? ›

Jammu and Kashmir have the maximum area of wasteland in India.

How many acres of land are we losing every hour? ›

Our lands are disappearing at an alarming rate.

In the United States, we lose roughly 150 acres of natural land and 40 acres of farmland every hour.

Is American agriculture declining? ›

The number of U.S. farms continues slow decline

In the most recent survey, there were 2.00 million U.S. farms in 2022, down from 2.20 million in 2007. Similarly, the acres of land in farms continue its downward trend with 893 million acres in 2022, down from 915 million acres ten years earlier.

What is the average income of an American farmer? ›

For example Farm Market jobs pay as much as $17,867 (55.6%) more than the average Farmer salary of $32,133.

How much profit does a farmer make per acre? ›

Average four-crop gross income per acre = approximately $790 per acre.

Who owns the most US farmland? ›

People own most farmland. Some 2.6 million owners are individuals or families, and they own more than two thirds of all farm acreage. Fewer than 32,500 non family held corpor ations own farmland, and they own less than 5 percent of all U.S. farmland.

What country owns the most US farmland? ›

Foreign Ownership of U.S. Agricultural Land
Country of Foreign InvestorTotal AcresTotal Value (US$)
France1,315,7482,974,709,000
Denmark856,4741,126,811,000
Luxembourg802,2491,832,757,000
Ireland759,732430,765,000
6 more rows
Mar 16, 2023

How much property does China own in the US? ›

China owns roughly 384,000 acres of U.S. agricultural land, according to a 2021 report from the Department of Agriculture.

Who owns the most US land? ›

The 2022 Land Report 100, compiled each year by The Land Report magazine, released its annual list of landowners who own the most acres in the United States. The nation's largest private landowners are the Emmerson family in California who own over 2.4 million acres.

What is the cheapest land in the US? ›

10 of the Cheapest Places to Buy Land in the U.S.
  • Mohave County, Arizona. ...
  • Kanosh, Utah. ...
  • Valencia County, New Mexico. ...
  • Fort Hanco*ck, Texas. ...
  • Royalton, Kentucky. Photo: istockphoto.com. ...
  • Edwards, Missouri. Photo: istockphoto.com. ...
  • Sun Valley, Arizona. Photo: istockphoto.com. ...
  • Deming, New Mexico. Photo: istockphoto.com.
Feb 27, 2023

How much US land is owned by foreigners? ›

During a session on foreign investment in U.S. agriculture at USDA's 99th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum on Feb. 24, Clayton Michaud, an agricultural economist with USDA, said foreign entities own approximately 40 million acres, which accounts for 3% of all privately held agricultural land in the U.S.

What will we be eating in 2040? ›

Meat from plants

According to a recent study, plant-based meat alternatives could form a quarter of our 'meat' intake by 2040. Current icons of this new food revolution include Beyond Meat, Quorn, and, in the US, Impossible Foods.

What year will food be gone? ›

World population too big to feed by 2050

The world population could be too big to feed itself by 2050. By then, there will be almost 10 billion people on the planet and food demand will have increased by 70 percent compared to 2017.

What year will there be a food shortage? ›

It was a bad year for food shortages in 2022, with categories including eggs and baby formula hit hard. Unfortunately, 2023 could see its own batches of food shortages. Here's what consumers should start stocking up on now before prices soar and products likely become harder to find on store shelves.

What makes the most money on farmland? ›

Livestock is probably the most common way farmers make money from their land. And while animals have a few more expenses and a higher overhead, they usually bring in top dollar in terms of net income.

How many years of topsoil is left? ›

Some are eroding quickly: 16% of soils are estimated to have a lifespan of less than 100 years. Others are eroding slowly: half have a lifespan greater than 1000 years; and one-third have over 5000 years.

What percentage of the US is a farmer? ›

In 2021, 21.1 million full- and part-time jobs were related to the agricultural and food sectors—10.5 percent of total U.S. employment. Direct on-farm employment accounted for about 2.6 million of these jobs, or 1.3 percent of U.S. employment.

Which US state has the highest percentage of farmland? ›

Texas had the most land in farms in the United States in 2021 followed by Montana and Kansas. Texas accounted for more than 14% of the land in farms in the United States in 2021.

Which state has more farmers in USA? ›

Texas had the most farms in the United States in 2021 followed by Missouri and Iowa.

What percentage of farming is no till in USA? ›

The potential benefits of no-till are well-documented, from improving soil health to reducing annual fuel and labor investments. Still, continuous no-till has been adopted across only 21 percent of all cultivated cropland acres in the United States. Why?

Why do billionaires buy farmland? ›

Currently, investors are attracted to farmland due to its low correlation with the stock market's volatility. This makes it an exceptional tool for diversifying portfolios. Farmers have pricing power for their crops. Food is not a discretionary item on any budget.

Why don t farmers make a lot of money? ›

Rising input costs, shrinking production values, commodity specialization, and challenges to land access all appear to be connected to declining farm operator livelihoods, the new study in Frontiers of Sustainable Food Systems concludes.

Where is the richest farmland in the world? ›

What is the richest most productive farmland of the Earth? Places with the richest soil in the world are Eurasian Steppe; Mesopotamia; from Manitoba, Canada, as far south as Kansas; the central valley of California; Oxnard plain and the Los Angeles basin; Pampas lowlands of Argentina and Uruguay.

Are US farmers struggling? ›

Farmers are struggling to keep pace with inflation. Production costs for seed, fertilizer, equipment and other farming essentials are the highest we've seen in decades, subjecting farmers to higher cost of capital required to operate their business.

Are we running out of farm land? ›

It is true that in the United States fewer acres are used for agriculture today than in the past, although the loss is far less than what Worldwatch and United States Department of Agriculture report. But this “loss” of farmland is not a crisis or even a cause for concern. Instead, it is good news.

Do farmers make any money? ›

Average Farm Income by State

The states with the best opportunities for farmers had the highest populations in 2021. California tops the list with average salaries at ​$44.03​ per hour, or ​$91,590​ per year.

How small farms are losing in the US? ›

In the US, small farms accounted for less than one-fourth of food production in 2020, down from nearly half in the 1990s. And the agricultural landscape continues to change, fueled by technology and increased industrialization, resulting in larger and larger farms.

How much farmland in the US is foreign owned? ›

Of the 1.3 billion acres of private agricultural land in the United States, foreign entities fully or partially owned roughly 40 million acres valued at $74 billion in 2021.

How much farmland is lost to climate change? ›

Every year, the world loses 12 million hectares of productive land, with far-reaching consequences, including falling crop yields, massive food loss, rising tensions over natural resources, forced migration and weakened resilience to climate change.

What percentage of Americans farm for a living now? ›

Farm and ranch families comprise less than 2% of the U.S. population.

Has the US farm population shrunk? ›

In the most recent survey, there were 2.00 million U.S. farms in 2022, down from 2.20 million in 2007.

Why are we losing farms? ›

The underlying causes of farmland loss in California are rapid population growth and the inefficient use of land. Since 1990, urban development has consumed an acre of land for every 9.4 people statewide. In the San Joaquin Valley, the rate was an acre for every 8 people.

What country owns most US land? ›

China owns roughly 384,000 acres of U.S. agricultural land, according to a 2021 report from the Department of Agriculture. Of that, 195,000 acres, worth almost $2 billion when purchased, are owned by 85 Chinese investors, which could be individuals, companies or the government.

Who owns all the US farmland? ›

People own most farmland. Some 2.6 million owners are individuals or families, and they own more than two thirds of all farm acreage. Fewer than 32,500 non family held corpor ations own farmland, and they own less than 5 percent of all U.S. farmland. Farmland owners hold an aver age of about 280 acres each.

How much is all US farmland worth? ›

The United States farm real estate value, a measurement of the value of all land and buildings on farms, averaged $3,800 per acre for 2022, up $420 per acre (12.4 percent) from 2021. The United States cropland value averaged $5,050 per acre, an increase of $630 per acre (14.3 percent) from the previous year.

How many years of farming do we have left? ›

At a recent conference, the U.N.'s Food and Agricultural Organization warned that if soil erosion continues at its current pace, the world could run out of topsoil in 60 years. “Soils are the basis of life,” said Maria-Helena Semedo, the Food and Agriculture Organization's deputy director general of natural resources.

Are farmers causing climate change? ›

The Link Between Agriculture and Climate Change

However, the agriculture sector also emits greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that contribute to climate change. Read more about greenhouse gas emissions on the Basics of Climate Change page.

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