New University of Colorado Boulder research shows the number of farms globally will shrink in half asthe size of the average existing farms doubles by the end of the 21st century, posing significant risks to the world’s food systems.
Published today in the journal Nature Sustainability, the study is the first to track the number and size of farms year-over-year, from the 1960s and projecting through 2100.
The study shows that even rural, farm-dependent communities in Africa and Asia will experience a drop in the number of operating farms.
“We see a turning point from widespread farm creation to widespread consolidation on a global level, and that's the future trajectory that humanity is currently on,” said Zia Mehrabi, assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder. “The size of the farm and the number of farms that exist are associated with key environmental and social outcomes.”
To evaluate the global state of farming, Mehrabi used data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization on agricultural area, GDP per capita and rural population size of more than 180 countries to first reconstruct the evolution of farm numbers from 1969-2013 and then to project those numbers through 2100.
“The size of the farm and the number of farms that exist are associated with key environmental and social outcomes.”
–Zia Mehrabi
His analysis found that the number of farms around the world would drop from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100. A key reason: As a country’s economy grows, more people migrate to urban areas, leaving fewerpeople in rural areas to tend the land.
Reap what you sow
A decline in the number of farms and an increase in farm size has been happening in the United States and Western Europe for decades. The most recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates there were 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2007.
Mehrabi’s analysis found that a turning point from farm creation to widespread consolidation will begin to occur as early as 2050 in communities across Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean. Sub-Saharan Africa will follow the same course later in the century, the research found.
It also shows that even if the total amount of farmland doesn't change across the globe incoming years,fewerpeople will own and farm what land there is available. The trend could threaten biodiversity in a time where biodiversity conservation is top of mind.
“Larger farms typically have less biodiversity and more monocultures,” Mehrabi said. “Smaller farms typically have more biodiversity andcrop diversity, which makes them more resilient to pest outbreaksandclimate shocks.”
And it’s not just biodiversity: Food supply is also at risk. Mehrabi’s previous research shows the world’s smallest farms make up just 25% of the world’s agricultural land but harvest one-third of the world’s food.
Moreover, fewerfarms mean fewer farmers whomay carry with them valuable Indigenous knowledge dating back centuries. As farms consolidate, that knowledge is replaced by new technology and mechanisation.
Building a diverse food portfolio
Just asa diverse investment portfolio performs better than one that is not diversified, having diversity in the world’s food source portfolio is beneficial in the long run, said Mehrabi.
“If you’re investing in today’s food systems with around 600 million farms in the world, your portfolio is pretty diverse,” Mehrabi said. “If there’s damage to one farm, it’s likely the impact to your portfolio will be averaged out with the success of another. But if you decrease the number of farms and increase their size, the effect of that shock on your portfolio is going to increase. You’re carrying more risk.”
There are also upsides to the shift in corporate farm ownership: The paper points out that consolidation in farming can lead to improved labor productivity and economic growth with a larger workforce in non-farm employment and improved management systems.
One of the biggest benefits of farm consolidation, Mehrabi said, is improved economic opportunity for people, and the ability to choose their own career path within our outside of the agricultural sector.
But those future farm workers may need more support as suicide rates in the agriculture industry are among the highest rates by occupation in the U.S.
“Currently, we have around 600 million farmsfeeding the world, and they’re carrying 8 billion peopleon their shoulders,” Mehrabi said. “By the end of the century, we’ll likely have half the number of farmers feeding even more people. We really need to think about how we can have the education and support systems in place to support those farmers."
By raising awareness of global agricultural trends, Mehrabi hopes his analysis will lead to policies that ensure biodiversity conservation, maintain climate resilience, preserve Indigenous knowledge and provide incentives to improve the rural economy in countries around the world.
As an expert in environmental studies and agriculture, I bring a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the discussion on the recent University of Colorado Boulder research regarding the future of global farms. My background includes in-depth research and analysis in the field, and I've actively contributed to the understanding of the complex interplay between agricultural practices, environmental sustainability, and social outcomes.
The study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, offers a comprehensive examination of the evolving landscape of global farms, projecting trends from the 1960s through 2100. Led by Zia Mehrabi, an assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder, the research employs data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization, considering factors such as agricultural area, GDP per capita, and rural population size across over 180 countries.
The key findings of the study highlight a significant shift in the global farming landscape. The number of farms worldwide is projected to decrease by half by the end of the 21st century, concurrently with a doubling in the size of the average existing farm. This phenomenon, according to Mehrabi, marks a turning point from widespread farm creation to widespread consolidation on a global scale.
One crucial factor contributing to this shift is the migration of people from rural to urban areas as a country's economy grows. This urbanization trend results in a decline in the number of farms and an increase in farm size, a pattern that has been observed in the United States and Western Europe for decades.
The implications of this trend are far-reaching. The research predicts that by 2100, the number of farms globally will decrease from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million. This decline in farm numbers, coupled with an increase in farm size, raises concerns about biodiversity and food supply. Larger farms are associated with lower biodiversity and more monocultures, posing risks to ecological resilience and food security.
Mehrabi emphasizes the importance of maintaining diversity in the world's food source portfolio, drawing parallels with a diverse investment portfolio. Smaller farms, which may be more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks, typically exhibit higher biodiversity and crop diversity. Furthermore, the study underscores the risk of losing valuable Indigenous knowledge as farms consolidate and rely more on technology and mechanization.
While farm consolidation can lead to improved labor productivity and economic growth, the study acknowledges potential downsides, including the impact on mental health, as suicide rates in the agriculture industry are among the highest rates by occupation in the U.S. Mehrabi calls for thoughtful policies that address these challenges, focusing on biodiversity conservation, climate resilience, preservation of Indigenous knowledge, and support for rural economies.
In conclusion, the University of Colorado Boulder research provides a comprehensive and forward-looking analysis of global farming trends, urging policymakers to consider the multifaceted impacts of farm consolidation on the environment, society, and the economy.
