Where Do You Want to Live in 2040? (2024)

I was rereading a Joel Kotkin book, and I had second thoughts about Tucson. I love Tucson, Arizona, but I don’t know if I want to live there twenty years from now. Previously, I read and highlighted several things in Kotkin’s book The Next Hundred Million. But a recent reread and an article about a Gallup analysis made me think once again about where I want to live in 2040. Kotkin writes, “In the coming decades the collective impact of another hundred million Americans on costs and congestion in big cities and along the coasts will drive more and more people to the Heartland.” I already hate commuter traffic and urban sprawl. What happens when this country adds another 100 million people?

I am from the Heartland. Born and raised in the Hawkeye State but living in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area for the last two decades. As an Iowa boy, I hate the traffic and the sprawl of this city of 3.5 million. Yes, Atlanta and other cities, I realize our traffic isn’t that bad. But I still hate it. For all the good aspects of living in cities, think about the impact of 100 million people added to the U.S. population over the next 30 years. What would Chicago look like? What would my city look like? What will mid-sized cities like Columbus and Tucson look like?

I love Tucson, obviously for the weather. It’s not Phoenix. It has the University of Arizona which is a world-class institution. Great restaurants, culture, and a startup friendly environment. I love that it is a smaller city compared to the Twin Cities, but I am still faced with the challenge of wondering what 30 years will do to Tucson. Just look at how Phoenix and Las Vegas have changed over the last 25 years. Currently Tucson has potential issues when it comes to sprawl, crime, and access to water. What will an extra 100 million added to the U.S. population do to this city?

We know for a fact, that the major growth areas over the last two decades have been in the Southeast and Southwest. Look at Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Phoenix, Las Vegas. Will this trend continue over the next 20 years?

Business Insider wrote a fascinating article called, “The Heartland Will Become The Best Place to Live in America.” They looked at a study by Gallup and wrote this article after looking at 13 forward-looking metrics. They found the winners to be the West North Central, Pacific, and Mountain regions. For “West North Central,” they include Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. That region is poised for the brightest future according to Business Insider. Dan Witters and Lymari Morales wrote, “Workers in this region are most likely to be employed full time for an employer — the type of good jobs associated with high GDP — and residents have the highest economic confidence in the nation, setting the region up for a strong economic future. Those regions would likely be the best places to live in 20 years.”

“The West North Central region, which includes Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas, is poised for the brightest future.”

Don’t move to Kansas quite yet. Other regions fared well too. For regions that fared well, it’s the combination of a strong economy, good health, and vibrant communities. But it’s worth noting what region performed the worst: The East South Central region, which includes Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi. They trailed on several of the crucial metrics, and performed the worst of the nine regions tested overall. People in this region are the most likely nationwide to be obese, to smoke, and to say it is not easy for them to find a safe place to exercise.

I have recently been bullish on Knoxville, Tennessee and Lexington, Kentucky. And Louisville seems to be attracting some good press as a technology hub and startup friendly city. Should this new information make you cautious about any city in Kentucky or Tennessee? Or perhaps Alabama and Mississippi weigh down the region. But Huntsville and Birmingham also get some well-deserved praise. Just like any “best of” or city ranking article, gather the information that is useful, discard what is useless, and make your own decision. When I looked at the Business Insider article along with my readings from Joel Kotkin, it made me think again about some gems in the Heartland.

Regions must create jobs and attract talent. The ideal best place to live twenty years from now will have tackled unemployment, financial worry, healthcare costs, obesity, and education challenges. Worth noting, the West South Central region, which includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, came in fourth overall. But the region had the highest Job Creation Index score in the nation. Meanwhile, the middle Atlantic (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) struggled with job creation metrics. The Mountain Region finished second overall. Think Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico. This shouldn’t be a surprise as places like Provo, Logan, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, Boulder, and Denver get accolades on many “best of” lists.

Overall, if you look at the criteria of the Gallup article and think about Kotkin’s thoughts on where the next 100 million people in the U.S. will live, I have three suggestions. Three from the Heartland, one from the Mountain, and one from the Pacific

1. Lawrence, Kansas. You have a small, college town vibe and a leading university in Kansas University. Neighborhoods. Green space. And affordable housing.
2. Iowa City, Iowa. Another college town with a world-class institution in the University of Iowa. Access to amazing medical facilities. College town amenities and a stress-free life.
3. Columbia, Missouri. Another college town that scores big when it comes to a lack of commuter traffic and a stress-free life. Mizzou is a top-tier university and Columbia scores big when it comes to green space and outdoor activities.
4. Logan, Utah. Utah State doesn’t rank as high as the other universities on the list. But you still have a college town in an amazing, picturesque location.
5. Corvallis, Oregon. A highly educated population, like most every city on this list. Corvallis is the home to Oregon State University, though Eugene (home to the University of Oregon) could easily make this list. The entire state of Oregon is great for the outdoor lover. And Corvallis will be good for those wanting to escape traffic and enjoy a slower pace of life.

Thanks for reading- I’m Scott Raymond. For over ten years, I have published content on entrepreneurship, emerging U.S. Cities, horse racing, specialization in youth sports, and more. I enjoy writing and researching. I live in the Minneapolis/St.Paul area with my wife Kari. My other interests include reading, horses, long walks outdoors, the National Parks, and college towns. I can best be reached at onehorsestable at gmail dot com.