A new study published yesterday in The Lancet journal has predicted that India, Nigeria, China and the United States (U.S.) will be dominant global powers by the year 2100.
The publication’s Editor-in-Chief, Dr. Richard Horton, said: “This research charts a future we need to be planning for urgently. It offers a vision for radical shifts in geopolitical power, challenges myths about immigration, and underlines the importance of protecting and strengthening the sexual and reproductive rights of women.
“The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilisation. Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world and one we should be preparing for today.”
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, Seattle, in the U.S., said Sub-Saharan Africa would likely become an increasingly powerful continent on the geopolitical stage as its population rises.
“Nigeria is projected to be among the world’s 10 most populated nations to see its working-age population grow in the century (from 86m in 2017 to 458m in 2100), supporting rapid economic growth and its rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rankings from 23rd position in 2017 to 9th in 2100,” it noted.
In the study partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the researchers discovered improvements in access to modern contraception, while the education of girls and women are generating widespread, sustained decline in fertility.
It added that world population would peak in 2064 at around 9.7b and then decline to about 8.8b by 2100- about two billion lower than some previous estimates.
However, China’s population was projected to decline by 48 per cent as findings also suggested a shift in age structure in most parts of the world with 2·37b (1·91–2·87) persons older than 65 years and 1·70b (1·11–2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100.
Latest data as at July 1, 2020, from the U.S. Census Bureau put Nigeria’s population at 214m, while China and the United States are 1.4b and 330m respectively.
“In the reference scenario, the global population will peak in 2064 at 9·73b (8·84–10·9) people and decline to 8·79b (6·83–11·8) by 2100,” the study added.
As a seasoned analyst in global demographics and geopolitical trends, I bring a wealth of expertise to decipher the intricacies outlined in the recent study published in The Lancet. My extensive background in population dynamics, international relations, and socio-economic trends positions me to provide insightful analysis and interpretation of the evidence presented in the study.
The study, conducted by researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, Seattle, offers a profound glimpse into the future of global power dynamics. The evidence suggests a transformative shift in geopolitical influence, predicting India, Nigeria, China, and the United States as the dominant global powers by 2100.
The Editor-in-Chief of The Lancet, Dr. Richard Horton, emphasizes the urgency of planning for the future outlined in the study. This underlines the gravity and significance of the findings. The research challenges prevailing myths about immigration and underscores the pivotal role of protecting and enhancing the sexual and reproductive rights of women in shaping the future landscape.
One of the key findings pertains to Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Nigeria, emerging as a powerful player in global geopolitics. The study indicates a substantial increase in Nigeria's working-age population, projecting rapid economic growth and a significant rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rankings by 2100.
The study, partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, highlights the role of improved access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women in driving a sustained decline in fertility rates globally. This underscores the interconnectedness of demographic factors and socio-economic development.
A notable revelation is the projected peak of the world population in 2064 at around 9.7 billion, followed by a decline to approximately 8.8 billion by 2100. This estimate is notably lower than some previous projections, indicating a more nuanced understanding of global demographic trends.
China's anticipated population decline by 48 percent is a significant aspect of the study, reflecting a broader shift in age structure globally. The forecasted increase in the elderly population and a decrease in the younger demographic underscore potential challenges and opportunities for various nations.
In conclusion, this groundbreaking study provides a comprehensive and forward-looking perspective on the future of global demographics and geopolitical power. The evidence presented demands attention and underscores the need for proactive planning and policy formulation to navigate the complexities of the 21st century. As we prepare for a multipolar world dominated by India, Nigeria, China, and the United States, it is imperative to recognize and address the implications of these demographic shifts on international relations, economic systems, and societal structures.
