The housing market is shifting, but not everywhere. As cities across the globe continue to adjust after the pandemic, certain metropolitan areas are more at risk of a housing bubble than others, according to a new report by UBS.
A housing bubble refers to an increased rise in home prices at a rapid pace, driven by increased demand and limited supply. When the bubble inevitably "bursts," usually driven by increased interest rates, demand decreases.
The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index examined 25 cities across the globe, tracking current values and risk-based classifications (depressed, undervalued, fair valued, overvalued, and bubble risk) to determine which areas are most at risk of a housing bubble.
Across the globe, Toronto was the city with the highest risk of a housing bubble — prices are 17% higher than they were a year ago, marking the biggest increase in five years.
In the U.S., Miami was the city with the highest risk of a housing bubble and reported the highest house prices and rental growth of all the cities in the study.
For the rest of the country, the Magic City was followed by Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, and New York.
Overall, the cities analyzed saw nominal price growth of 10% from mid-2021 to mid-2022, marking the highest increase since 2007. With the exception of Tokyo, every city analyzed demonstrated rent prices higher than they were before the pandemic.
Additionally, mortgage rates have nearly doubled across all of the cities, and with increased prices, affordable city housing is far more scarce than before the pandemic, the report found.
While New York saw the lowest price growth since mid-2021. Price growth was especially low in Manhattan and the luxury segment. Still, the Big Apple remains one of the least affordable cities in the country due to increased demand and limited supply following the mass exodus during the pandemic.
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Credit: UBS
