According to ATTOM’s newly released Q4 2022 Special Housing Risk Report, inland California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Delaware continued to have some of the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country. The report shows the housing markets with the biggest clusters were in the New York City and Chicago metropolitan areas, while the southern and midwestern states remained less exposed.
The analysis found the fourth-quarter patterns – based on gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment – revealed that New Jersey, Illinois, and California had 31 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential declines around the U.S. According to the report, that was roughly the same as the 28 more-at-risk markets that were in those states in Q4 2021.
Also according to the report, the 50 most at-risk included seven in the Chicago metro area, five in and around New York City, three in or near Cleveland, OH, and 13 spread through northern, central, and southern California; while the rest were clustered mainly in other parts of the East Coast, including two of the three counties in Delaware.
ATTOM’s latest analysis also found that at the other end of the risk spectrum, the South, Midwest, and western areas outside California continued to have the biggest concentration of markets considered least vulnerable to falling housing markets.
In this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q4 2022 Special Housing Risk Report to reveal not only the top 10 U.S. counties most at-risk of housing market declines, but also the data that landed them in the top 10:
Kent County, DE
- 39.3% of income to buy
- 8.8% underwater
- 0.2% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.7% unemployment rate
Butte County, CA
- 51.6% of income to buy
- 6.5% underwater
- 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.4% unemployment rate
Passaic County, NJ
- 59.6% of income to buy
- 6.4% underwater
- 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 3.8% unemployment rate
Atlantic County, NJ
- 38.1% of income to buy
- 9.5% underwater
- 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.1% unemployment rate
Richmond County, NY
- 70.1% of income to buy
- 3.9% underwater
- 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.9% unemployment rate
Kane County, IL
- 41.2% of income to buy
- 7.9% underwater
- 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.3% unemployment rate
Madera County, CA
- 53.0% of income to buy
- 4.6% underwater
- 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 6.3% unemployment rate
Will County, IL
- 40.0% of income to buy
- 7.1% underwater
- 0.2% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.1% unemployment rate
Kankakee County, IL
- 27.9% of income to buy
- 14.6% underwater
- 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 5.3% unemployment rate
Shasta County, CA
- 43.5% of income to buy
- 6.3% underwater
- 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.4% unemployment rate
ATTOM’s Q4 2022 special housing risk report considered counties more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and condos, and local unemployment rates.
For this report, the conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 581 counties around the U.S. with sufficient data to analyze in Q4 2022. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks.
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About The Author
Christine Stricker
Christine Stricker is the senior marketing manager for ATTOM Data Solutions where she serves the primary media liaison for the premium property data provider. She is responsible for successfully driving ATTOM Data products, service and brand promise in the marketplace and instrumental in identifying opportunities and delivering effective strategies to generate results.
Given your interest in the housing market, let me delve into the insights of the ATTOM Q4 2022 Special Housing Risk Report. I've been deeply immersed in real estate data analysis, with a focus on home affordability, equity, foreclosure rates, and unemployment trends.
In this report, ATTOM evaluated 581 counties across the United States, scrutinizing the vulnerability of housing markets based on specific criteria: foreclosure possibilities, mortgage balances surpassing property values, the proportion of wages needed to cover homeownership expenses, and local unemployment rates. This comprehensive assessment generated rankings in each category, culminating in an overall risk assessment for each county.
California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Delaware featured prominently among the most at-risk areas. These states experienced high concentrations of vulnerable markets, particularly in counties like Butte and Shasta in California, Kent and New Castle in Delaware, as well as Passaic and Atlantic in New Jersey. These areas exhibited concerning indicators such as high percentages of income required for homeownership, underwater mortgages, foreclosure rates, and elevated unemployment figures.
Conversely, the report highlighted regions in the South, Midwest, and areas outside California as less susceptible to housing market declines. Counties in these regions showed lower vulnerability due to more favorable factors in home affordability, equity, foreclosure rates, and lower unemployment.
ATTOM's methodology involved analyzing recent reports on home affordability, equity, and foreclosure alongside federal government data on unemployment rates. The rankings and conclusions drawn were based on a meticulous combination of these factors, providing a comprehensive overview of the housing market landscape.
The detailed breakdown of counties, their respective risk factors, and their comparative positions in the housing market vulnerability spectrum offers valuable insights for stakeholders, investors, and homeowners keen on understanding their local housing market dynamics.
Christine Stricker, ATTOM Data Solutions' Senior Marketing Manager, has played a pivotal role in curating and disseminating these insights. Her expertise and leadership in driving ATTOM's market presence, product efficacy, and strategic planning have been instrumental in delivering these comprehensive reports, aiding informed decision-making in the real estate landscape.
