Most Overvalued Housing Markets In The U.S. | Bankrate (2024)

As home price appreciation settles into a new post-pandemic pattern, once-hot housing markets in California and the West are cooling, while the East Coast continues to heat up.

Valuations zigzag by region. While the super-high-priced Bay Area and New York City markets might come to mind when you think “overvaluation,” a new report from credit rating agency Fitch Ratings reveals a surprising pick for the most overvalued housing market in the nation. Buffalo — a metro area where home values are just a fraction of prices in California — is the nation’s least sustainable housing market as of the fourth quarter of 2022, it says.

“Fitch believes overvaluation is moving to the East Coast from the West Coast, as the most overvalued states and metropolitan statistical areas significantly shifted in the past year,” the agency said in a statement.

Fitch’s 5 most overvalued housing markets

Fitch Ratings’ valuation measures look at such factors as home price trends, local incomes, employment and household formation. According to its calculations, these are the five most overvalued metro areas, among the 100 largest metros in the U.S.:

  1. Buffalo, NY: Housing in this Rust Belt metro area, which spans from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario, is overvalued by 27.1 percent, Fitch reckons. One unfavorable trend: population decline. New York was the nation’s fastest-shrinking state last year and has lost more than 520,000 residents since April 2020, per the Census Bureau. But Buffalo’s home values are strong — they rose 15 percent from the third quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2022, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
  2. Fayetteville, AR: Homes here are overvalued by 27 percent, Fitch estimates. This metro area experienced 23 percent price appreciation in the past year, FHFA reports. The median sale price is just under $400,000, according to Realtor.com, putting the market on par with national norms.
  3. Rochester, NY: Fitch estimates that the housing market in this metro area is overvalued by 26 percent. Rochester is only about 75 miles from Buffalo, and the market dynamics are similar — except Rochester’s home prices are lower, and its incomes a bit higher.
  4. Ogden, UT: This metro area, which experienced a population surge from people fleeing pricier housing markets, has cooled a bit. Home values declined by 0.6 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter, FHFA says. But homes remain overvalued by 25.5 percent, according to Fitch.
  5. Winston-Salem, NC: Area home values here soared 20 percent in the year ending in the third quarter of 2022, FHFA says. Fitch estimates home values are overpriced by 22.6 percent. Local incomes present a challenge: At $77,400, the typical family income is below the national median of $90,000.

A year ago, Fitch named Boise, Idaho, the nation’s most overvalued metro area, but the housing market there has since calmed. Prices fell 1.8 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2022, FHFA says. Even with the pullback, Fitch reckons Boise prices remain overvalued by 20.5 percent. Like many regions in the Mountain West, the city has experienced an influx of new arrivals from California and Seattle in recent years.

At a state level, Hawaii, South Carolina and North Carolina were the most overvalued housing markets, Fitch said.

Are Buffalo home prices really overheated?

Generally speaking, the Buffalo metro area is an oasis of housing affordability. The median home price in the third quarter of 2022 was just $223,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index. However, as modest as that sum is, home prices in Buffalo have doubled in the past five years.

“We’re finally catching up and becoming a big city,” says Joel HusVar, broker at HusVar Real Estate in Buffalo. “We were just long overdue.”

Rosalind Burgin, president of the Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors and an agent at Mootry Murphy & Burgin Realty Group in Buffalo, offers a similar assessment. First-time buyers can find starter homes here for as little as $150,000, she says: “There’s still affordable housing in the Buffalo market. I just think our prices were low for so long that they’re starting to catch up.”

HusVar and Burgin both say they’re seeing remote workers and investors buy homes in the metro area. Those trends can push values beyond historical norms.

Even though Buffalo’s home values are well below national levels, the region isn’t immune to another trend that’s squeezing buyers: Property prices are growing much faster than incomes. The median family income in Buffalo is $87,700. That’s an increase of 14 percent over the past three years — but home values have soared 39 percent in the same period.

Most Overvalued Housing Markets In The U.S. | Bankrate (2024)

FAQs

Most Overvalued Housing Markets In The U.S. | Bankrate? ›

According to data from Florida Atlantic University, Atlanta has the most overpriced housing market in the United States. The capital of the Peach State beats out multiple Florida cities, Charlotte, North Carolina, and Memphis, Tennessee to take the top spot for 2023.

Which housing markets are the most overpriced? ›

  • Charlotte, North Carolina.
  • Memphis, Tennessee. ...
  • Lakeland, Florida. ...
  • Palm Bay, Florida. Average listing price: $345,520. ...
  • Detroit. Average listing price: $226,101. ...
  • Deltona, Florida. Average listing price: $334,978. ...
  • Tampa, Florida. Average listing price: $361,065. ...
  • Nashville, Tennessee. Average listing price: $420,932. ...
5 days ago

Are homes in 97% of U.S. cities overvalued? ›

Just over a year ago, research firm Moody's Analytics claimed that the home values in 97% of the largest housing markets in the U.S. were “overvalued” and due for a fall in house prices of between 5% to 10%.

What are the most overpriced housing markets in North America? ›

Most Overpriced Housing Markets in the U.S.
  • Phoenix, Arizona. Home Overprice Percentage: 36.28% ...
  • Grand Rapids, Michigan. Home Overprice Percentage: 36.43% ...
  • Durham, North Carolina. Home Overprice Percentage: 36.43% ...
  • Knoxville, Tennessee. ...
  • Greensboro, North Carolina. ...
  • Las Vegas, Nevada. ...
  • Miami, Florida. ...
  • Orlando, Florida.
May 31, 2023

Is Las Vegas real estate overpriced? ›

The Las Vegas housing market is a great place for real estate investment. It remains relatively affordable than the expensive seller markets in the US.

Where is the most unaffordable housing? ›

According to the 2023 International Housing Affordability Survey by Demographia, three out of the 10 least affordable housing markets are in Australia and New Zealand, two are in Canada and four more are located in the United States. The least affordable housing market is Hong Kong.

What state has the most unaffordable housing? ›

According to worldpopulationreview.com, Hawaii is the most expensive state to live in, with its housing costing three times the national average. New York and California rank as the second and third most expensive states in which to live, respectively.

Where are home prices most inflated? ›

The most overvalued markets to rent a home are mostly found in California and Florida. You'll pay the most to buy a median-price home versus renting a home in California, as well as MSAs in Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Idaho and Utah.

Which US cities are home values most likely to plummet in a recession? ›

If a major downturn hits the U.S. economy, home prices in the New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia areas are the most vulnerable to declines, according to a new report from real-estate data company Attom Data Solutions.

Will Gen Z be able to afford houses? ›

Of Gen Zers currently saving money, 56.2% are saving for their first home. The majority of Gen Z (79.8%) believe they can only afford a home that costs less than $200,000. Only 6.9% of Gen Zers believe they can afford a home over $500,000 in their desired timeframe.

What are the worst housing markets in the US? ›

20 Worst Housing Markets for Growth and Stability
Growth
RankMetro AreaHome Price Change Since 1998
1Flint, MI71.74%
2Monroe, MI74.70%
3Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI76.45%
17 more rows
Mar 27, 2023

Where in the US are housing prices the lowest? ›

8 of the Cheapest Housing Markets in the U.S.
  • West Virginia. You'll find West Virginia at the top of almost every affordable housing market list in 2022. ...
  • Kentucky. ...
  • Alabama. ...
  • Ohio. ...
  • Indiana. ...
  • Michigan. ...
  • Pennsylvania. ...
  • Florida.

Where is the most overpriced housing market in the country? ›

According to data from Florida Atlantic University, Atlanta has the most overpriced housing market in the United States. The capital of the Peach State beats out multiple Florida cities, Charlotte, North Carolina, and Memphis, Tennessee to take the top spot for 2023.

Why are houses in Vegas so cheap? ›

Low Property Taxes

Nevada has no income tax and among the lowest property taxes in the country. These money-saving factors combine to make Las Vegas homes more affordable.

Will home prices drop in 2023 Nevada? ›

Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Nevada is $415,200, down by 9.06% YoY. In 2023, experts predict the median sale price growth to drop by roughly 4%, the first annual drop since 2012. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 98.1%, with a decline of 3.3 pt YoY as of April 2023.

Will Vegas house prices go down? ›

The data provided suggests that the housing market is likely to remain fierce in 2023. It will have a high demand and rising home values. The Las Vegas real estate market currently favors both sellers and buyers. Since homes may sell quickly, buyers can negotiate better prices.

What is the most unaffordable city in America? ›

1. Manhattan, New York
Cost of living:127.7% above U.S. average
Borough population:1,576,876
Median household income:$84,435
Median home value:$940,900
Unemployment rate:4.8%
Apr 15, 2023

Who has the best housing in the world? ›

Austria has the best housing system.

Housing cost in Vienna has remained around 25% of their income and they have largely avoided house price inflation.

What is the most unaffordable city in the world? ›

Sydney ranked behind Hong Kong which took the place as the least affordable city in the world, with Vancouver in third place.

What is the cheapest state to live in 2023? ›

1. Mississippi. Coming in as the cheapest state to live in in the United States is Mississippi with a cost of living index score of 83.3. It also has the lowest average housing costs in the nation at 33.7% below the national average.

What is the least affordable state to live in right now? ›

Hawaii and California are the LEAST affordable places to live in the U.S as incomes fail to keep up with soaring property prices.

Which states have housing crisis? ›

  • California, 978,000.
  • Texas, 322,000.
  • Florida, 289,000.
  • New York, 234,000.
  • Washington, 140,000.
  • New Jersey, 137,000.
  • Colorado, 127,000.
  • Arizona, 123,000.
Jul 21, 2022

Will inflation go down in 2023? ›

After peaking at 6.2% in 2022, we expect inflation to fall to 3.5% for 2023. Over 2024 to 2027, we expect inflation to average just 1.8%—below the Fed's 2% target.

What is the biggest drop in housing prices in the US? ›

Home prices in March saw the biggest annual drop since 2012 as pending home sales continue to abate, according to a new report. Last month, median U.S. home prices dropped — led by pandemic boomtowns and pricey Bay Area markets — by 3.3% to $400,528, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.

Will inflation cause a housing crash? ›

However, as high inflation costs press down on buyers, it could depress home values. Although he doesn't expect a major housing market crash, Buehler says he sees home values flattening out as inflation nestles into the housing market.

Is it better to have cash or property in a recession? ›

In addition, during recessions, people with access to cash are in a better position to take advantage of investment opportunities that can significantly improve their finances long-term.

Will house prices drop if a recession hits? ›

Will house prices go down in a recession? While the cost of financing a home typically increases when interest rates are on the rise, home prices themselves may actually decline. “Usually, during a recession or periods of higher interest rates, demand slows and values of homes come down,” says Miller.

Do people still buy houses in a recession? ›

In general, buying a home during a recession will get you a better deal. The number of foreclosures or owners who have to sell to stay afloat increases, typically leading to more homes available on the market and lower home prices.

What generation owns the most homes? ›

WASHINGTON (March 28, 2023) – The share of baby boomers has surpassed millennials and now makes up the largest generation of home buyers, according to the latest study from the National Association of Realtors®.

Why millennials are struggling to buy homes? ›

Millennials, aged 27 to 42, make up the biggest group citing affordability as one of the key issues that's preventing them from buying a home. Older millennials, between 34 and 42, were the biggest group that cited the inability to afford the down payment or closing costs as a major reason why they don't own a home.

Why is it harder for millennials to buy a house? ›

Key Takeaways. Millennials are not buying homes as readily as the previous generation. Delaying marriage and having children is keeping many Millennials at home with their parents. Tighter lending criteria can also make homeownership unaffordable or virtually impossible for those without much credit history.

Where is the housing market falling the fastest? ›

1. Nevada
  • Typical home price in November 2022: $438,170.
  • Decline in value between June and November 2022: -4.8%
  • Difference between the average Nevada home and national average: +22%
  • Difference in insurance costs between 2021 and 2022: +24%
Mar 15, 2023

What state has the best housing market 2023? ›

Texas replaced California in 2023 as the strongest housing market by state. With an existing home inventory of 83,222, the available houses for sale have more than doubled since last year. It has seen a drop of about 6% in new construction and is now at 248,648 since 2022.

Which state is best to buy a house? ›

10 best states for first-time homebuyers plus key factors
RankState1-year home price change: 2021–2022
1Pennsylvania4.1%
2North Carolina10.1%
3Utah5.8%
4Kentucky7.2%
6 more rows
Mar 2, 2023

What is the cheapest house to build? ›

Ranch Homes

A home with a simple and concise layout is the cheapest type of house to build. Ranch homes are typically single-story structures with attached garages. They're easy to find construction plans for and highly customizable, so you can find a home that fits your needs and budget.

Will housing prices drop in America? ›

Historically, home prices tend to rise over time, not fall. Prices are currently coming down in some markets, and the national median price was ever-so-slightly lower in February 2023 than it was in 2022, but experts do not expect dramatic drops.

What country has the best housing market right now? ›

China is home to more of the world real estate market assets (by value) than any other country at $42.7tn or 21 per cent of global real estate value, just ahead of the US at $42.1tn.

Where is the slowest real estate market? ›

The Bay Area has the worst performing housing market in the nation, according to a new report.

Is buying a house in Vegas a good investment? ›

Investing in a Las Vegas Property is a great option as Las Vegas has very low investment property taxes and no personal income tax. The average effective property tax in Las Vegas (Clark County) is 0.70%, slightly higher than the statewide average, but still significantly lower than the national average.

Is Vegas cheaper than California? ›

The cost of living in Los Angeles, CA is 40.1% higher than in Las Vegas, NV. You would have to earn a salary of $84,079 to maintain your current standard of living.

Will 2023 be a bad time to buy a house? ›

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

Is it a good time to buy a house in Las Vegas? ›

If buying a house in Las Vegas is in your future plans, you might be pleased to learn that prices have been falling for months. According to Redfin data, the median sale price for a Las Vegas home was $375,000 in December 2022, down considerably from the all-time-high of $432,000 in June 2022.

Is Las Vegas a buyers or sellers market? ›

Las Vegas is a Sellers Housing Market, which means prices tend to be higher and homes sell faster.

Is Las Vegas real estate market overvalued? ›

According to Moody's Analytics, Las Vegas and Phoenix are "overvalued" by 53.3% and 53.8%, respectively. While Greater New York is "overvalued" by just 7.4%. Simply put: The ongoing housing correction is teaching us that housing fundamentals still matter.

How long are houses staying on the market in Las Vegas? ›

In general, because a balanced market includes from four to six months of supply depending on demand, Las Vegas could be described as a slight buyer's market. For just the month of January 2023 year-over-year, the supply of homes for sale rose by 3.25 months, or an increase of over 240%.

Are home prices dropping in Tennessee? ›

Tennessee Housing Market Update

According to Redfin, in April 2023, home prices in the state were down 3.1% compared to the previous year, with a median price of $360,000.

Is Charlotte NC real estate overvalued? ›

The findings show that in March, the average home price in Charlotte was $361,080, but the expected price was $252,150. In addition to Charlotte, Winston, Greensboro, and Durham also ranked among the top 20 overpriced housing markets in the U.S. This story was originally published May 15, 2023, 2:37 PM.

Is Idaho real estate overpriced? ›

From 2015 – 2019, the FMHPI shows a 24% increase in the house price index for the U.S. In Idaho, it was a whopping 52% – more than double the national average.

Where is the most affordable housing in the US? ›

Here's a look at the most affordable major cities in the country for housing.
  • Kansas City, Missouri.
  • Albuquerque, New Mexico.
  • Louisville, Kentucky.
  • Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
  • Indianapolis, Indiana.
  • Tucson, Arizona.
Jan 12, 2023

Is Nashville in a housing bubble? ›

Nashville housing market overview

According to data from Redfin, Nashville home prices peaked in May 2022 after seeing steady growth for years. They have gone down a bit since, but it's a very slight year-over-year decline of 1.3 percent from March 2022 to March 2023.

Why is Tennessee housing so cheap? ›

Low taxes tend to mean low living expenses as well. Between this favorable tax structure and reasonable real estate prices, the result is a place where you know your income and savings work hard for you. Wherever you're living in Tennessee, chances are your daily expenses are well below the national average.

Where is the best place to live in TN? ›

  1. 1 . Nashville. Best Places to Live 2022-2023 Rank: 25. (Getty Images)
  2. 2 . Knoxville. Best Places to Live 2022-2023 Rank: 33. (Getty Images) ...
  3. 3 . Chattanooga. Best Places to Live 2022-2023 Rank: 59. (Getty Images) ...
  4. 4 . Memphis. Best Places to Live 2022-2023 Rank: 145. (Getty Images) Metro Population: 1,343,150. ...
Mar 17, 2023

Is Charlotte in a housing bubble? ›

But the center's 2022 analysis revealed a housing market that's more expensive than ever. Among its findings: Home prices have skyrocketed—from a median of $273,500 in January 2020 to $420,000 in September 2022, an increase of 54%.

Why is Charlotte getting so expensive? ›

One of the biggest reasons is that the supply of houses simply hasn't kept up with demand. Inventory across the Charlotte region has fallen dramatically in the past few years, dropping sharply over the past year in particular.

Will home prices drop in 2023 Charlotte NC? ›

Charlotte Real Estate Market Forecast 2023-2024

According to Zillow, the average home value in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia area is $365,067, representing a 2.7% increase over the past year. This upward trend in home values is expected to continue, with a forecasted 6.2% increase over the next year.

Why are people moving to Idaho? ›

For people looking for a safe place to call home, Idaho's low crime rate is a big draw. In conclusion, Idaho's population growth is driven by a combination of factors including a strong economy, natural beauty, outdoor recreational opportunities, remote work opportunities, and a low crime rate.

Why are there no basem*nts in Boise Idaho? ›

The straight answer to the question of whether houses in Idaho have basem*nts is that – most of them do not have a basem*nt. This happens because of a thing called “Foundation depth”, which refers to the depth of the soil that needs to be dug for the house to be stable, which generally is deeper than the frost line.

Is Myrtle Beach real estate overvalued? ›

You can measure it with the payment-to-income ratio. The Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach area ranked as the 20th most overvalued area to buy a home in the U.S. The payment-to-income ratio on average? 40.1%.

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