USDA ERS - Food Markets & Prices (2024)

FAQs

How does the USDA forecast food prices? ›

The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year compared to all months in the previous year.

For calendar year 2022, the farm share was 14.9 cents of each food dollar expenditure and the marketing share was 85.1 cents, accounting for the remainder of the food dollar.

Price controls are normally mandated by the government in the free market. They are usually implemented as a means of direct economic intervention to manage the affordability of certain goods and services, including rent, gasoline, and food.

Bread now costs over $2 per pound — $2.03, to be exact, as of January. Last January, the same pound cost just $1.89 for a year-over-year increase of 7.7%. A standard loaf of sliced white bread weighs 20oz, which means a loaf costs about $2.54, so $20 can buy you just shy of eight loaves.

In 2024, the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts a 2.9% increase in food prices overall, with only a 1.9% increase for food at home. To compare, in 2023, food prices increased 5.8% overall, with a 5% increase for food at home.

Well, there are a lot of ingredients that make up the recipe for food inflation—including droughts, high production costs and labor shortages. All these things and more affect the number you see on your grocery receipt and restaurant check. But let's break down some of the main causes happening right now.

The reason for inflation's stubborn hold on food prices can be linked to a number of issues, from higher labor costs at manufacturers that trickle down to consumers, to record-low cattle numbers that are driving up the cost of beef and steak.

Federal agencies don't control food prices, but may indirectly affect them.

Feed, at $83.6 billion, was the largest expense item, accounting for 18.5% of farm expenditures. Feed (up $18.4 billion), fertilizer, lime, and soil conditioners (up $7.3 billion), as well as labor (up $4.8 billion) were the three categories with the largest increases between 2021 and 2022.

Where does most of America's food come from? ›

California ranks first in the U.S. for agricultural cash receipts followed by Iowa, Texas, Nebraska and Illinois. How much does agriculture contribute to the economy?

Wheat farmers average a meager 12 cents on a loaf of bread that retails for $3.49. And dairy producers receive only $1.34 from a $4.49 gallon of fat free milk. Johnson noted that the farmer's share does not always correlate with food prices, and that the disconnect between the two should not confuse consumers.

First: moderating food price increases through export restrictions, reduced import tariffs, removal of valueadded tax on food, and release of grain stock. Second: compensating select groups of consumers for increasing food prices through targeted transfers, consumer food subsidies, and increased public sector wages.

Governments can either control the rise of prices with price ceilings, such as rent controls, or put a floor under prices with policies such as the minimum wage. The following table shows some examples of common price controls.

Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024 and are projected to rise 2.5% compared with 2023, according to a new USDA report. In the March 25 Food Price report, the USDA estimates grocery food inflation at 1.6% for 2024, while restaurant prices are predicted to rise by 4.1%.

Net cash farm income for calendar year 2024 is forecast at $121.7 billion (down $38.7 billion or 24.1 percent relative to 2023, in nominal dollars). Net farm income is forecast at $116.1 billion (down $39.8 billion or 25.5 percent).

Retail food prices partially reflect farm-level commodity prices, but other costs of bringing food to the market (such as processing and retailing) have a greater role in determining prices on supermarket shelves and restaurant menus.

Summary Findings. Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $21.2 billion (4.2 percent) from 2023 to $485.5 billion in 2024 in nominal dollars. Total crop receipts are forecast to decrease by $16.7 billion (6.3 percent) from 2023 levels to $245.7 billion following lower receipts for corn and soybeans.