“We need to worry about population explosion.” That message was delivered by PM Narendra Modi from the ramparts of the Red Fort on India’s 73rd Independence Day. He added that the rising population poses various challenges for the country and future generations. Now, the UNPF State of World Population 2023 report has released figures showing India overtaking China to become the world’s most populated country with 1.43 billion people by mid-2023.
“A growing population of this size means additional job creation, creating infrastructure and providing healthcare, education, and social security,” says Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist of Dun & Bradstreet. In that sense, India’s growing population is certainly a challenge. Butmitigating its effect is possible only
if the country’s GDP grows robustly on a sustained basis and, consequently, the per capita income.
Per an EY India report, the Indian economy is expected to grow to $26 trillion by 2047, and per capita income is expected to increase sixfold to $15,000 (Rs 12.30 lakh) per annum. What this means is that the numerator (GDP) has to grow at a sustained pace while the denominator (population growth) moderates. This will help the nation manage its resources optimally.
China’s GDP—with its large population—has been growing at an average annual rate of around 7 per cent since the 1980s. Vietnam is another country that has witnessed a growth rate of 6 per cent since the 2000s. Indonesia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, too, have high growth rates, but their populations are nowhere close to India’s or China’s. Meanwhile India—that has been growing at an average rate of over 5 per cent since the 1990s—has to up its game to support its large and expanding population. Singh says, in order to absorb the risingpopulation into the workforce, India has to grow at a real GDP rate of 10.8 per cent till 2030, 6.5 per cent till 2040, and 4.2 per cent till 2047. “The capital requirement will be $120 trillion in the next 25 years.”
“India’s growing population brings a lot of responsibility for the government and society,” says Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda. He highlights several challenges, such as a majority of India’s population stuck inlower income groups, migration and overcrowding in urban areas, along with the need to provide social support in terms of education and health services.
In that backdrop, India’s belated move to increase the share of manufacturing—that has been stagnant at around 17-18 per cent—will face huge challenges from Industry 4.0 and automation. In addition, AI-poweredtools are threatening to take away jobs, while the forces of anti-globalisation work to impact the free flow of labour. “In India, there will be 1.1 billion people who will be part of the working age group of 15 to 64, by 2047... We are talkingabout enormous pressure on the labour market. We have to create enough jobs,” says Singh.
India’s population growth is expected to peak around 2060, per projections. Another research published in medical journal Lancet in October 2020, states that India is projected to have the largest working-age population by 2100, followed by Nigeria, China, and the US. “The changing dynamics, with low fertility rates, longer life, and health expectancy, also require the government to rethink their policy as well as spending priorities, as they face lower consumer spending, a less robust workforce, and increasing healthcare needs in the years ahead,” says Radhika Rao, Senior Economist at DBS Group Research.
Experts suggest that one of the priorities should be to improve human development indices. “This would imply action across the value chain—from better medical access from birth, to sufficient nutrition, education, social protection, and improving life expectancy,” says Rao.
They also suggest higher expenditure on education and health. “The centre and states have to work together on this. We need to have a more equitable education system, so that opportunities are similar for
all. While this is difficult given the scale, it is necessary,” says Sabnavis.
He further suggests that municipalities should be empowered to improve rural and urban infrastructure. “At a theoretical level, getting the private sector to run cities will work (though there are constitutional constraints), just like it [the government] has done in airports. There is too much lack of accountability at these levels,” says Sabnavis.
“It’s not just about the willingness; it’s also about the ability of public finances to put money into healthcare and social security issues,” says Singh.
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FAQs
Most of the world has grown up with China holding the title of the world's most populous country, but decades of restrictive policies limiting families to one child dramatically slowed China's birth rate, allowing India to pull ahead.
Is India's overpopulation a problem? ›
India's population is expanding at an unsustainable rate and is projected to surpass 1.5 billion people by 2030 and 2 billion people by 2050. The country's rapid population growth puts pressure on resources and services, leading to environmental degradation, poverty, and inequality.
Which country has more population, India or China? ›
In 2022, India overtook China as the country with the largest population in the world, with more than 1.43 billion people. China now has the second-largest population in the world, still with just above 1.4 billion inhabitants, however its population went into decline in 2023.
What was the main cause of the decline in the Indian population? ›
Most scholars agree that diseases introduced from the Eastern Hemisphere, including smallpox, measles, and influenza, were the overwhelming cause of population decline (Cook, 1998). The relationship between epidemic disease and American Indian population decline is relatively well documented in the nineteenth century.
Why does India have such a large population? ›
What's behind India's growing population? The biggest factor behind India's massive population is its young people: 650 million Indians—nearly half the country's population—are below the age of 25.
Can India overtake China's economy? ›
According to a Bloomberg Economics analysis, India could become the World's No. 1 contributor to GDP growth as early as 2028. China's economic growth averaged 10 per cent a year for three decades following the late 1970s reforms that opened its economy to the world.
Is overpopulation a strength or weakness for India? ›
On one hand, a large population can provide a large workforce and consumer base, which can drive economic growth. On the other hand, overpopulation can strain resources and infrastructure, leading to issues such as poverty, unemployment, and poor living conditions.
Is India in a population crisis? ›
India no longer fears a population explosion
India has added more than a billion people since independence in 1947, and its population is expected to grow for another 40 years. But its population growth rate has been declining for decades now, and the country has defied dire predictions about a "demographic disaster".
What is the least populated country? ›
World Atlas identified the least populated countries based on 2022 UN population estimates. The luxurious principality of Monaco made the list. Vatican City is the smallest country with a population of just 799 citizens.
What is the most powerful country in the world? ›
Forbes Ranked World's Top 10 Most Powerful Countries In 2024, Is India On The List?
- #1. United States: With a GDP of $28.78 trillion, the United States ranks first in economic power. ...
- #2. China:
- #3. Russia: ...
- #4. Germany: ...
- #5. United Kingdom: ...
- #6. South Korea: ...
- #7. France: ...
- #8. Japan:
The largest country in the world is Russia with a total area of 17,098,242 Km² (6,601,665 mi²) and a land area of 16,376,870 Km² (6,323,142 mi²), equivalent to 11% of the total world's landmass of 148,940,000 Km² (57,510,000 square miles).
What percent of us is indigenous? ›
Around 6.6 million people in the United States, or 2% of the total population, identify as Native American or Alaska Native, either alone or in combination with another ethnic identity.
How many Native Americans are left? ›
Today, there are over five million Native Americans in the United States, 78% of whom live outside reservations. The states with the highest percentage of Native Americans in the U.S. are Alaska, Oklahoma, New Mexico, South Dakota, Montana, and North Dakota.
Why are Native Americans called Indians? ›
The word Indian came to be used because Christopher Columbus repeatedly expressed the mistaken belief that he had reached the shores of South Asia. Convinced he was correct, Columbus fostered the use of the term Indios (originally, “person from the Indus valley”) to refer to the peoples of the so-called New World.
Why did China become so overpopulated? ›
PIP: In 1949, Mao Zedong encouraged the Chinese to have many children, continuing traditional practices. Other factors that contributed to high fertility at the time (1949-1957) were 1) social and economic conditions and 2) the high demand for manual labor.
Why is the population of India likely to overtake China to become the largest in the world by 2030 responses? ›
In conclusion, the population of India is likely to surpass that of China by 2030 due to factors such as urbanization, a younger population, and a higher birth rate. These factors contribute to India's projected population growth and the potential for it to become the largest country in terms of population.
Is China or India more educated? ›
China's population has long been more educated than India's, with higher literacy rates and larger shares of people completing grade school, high school and college. Education was one of the few economic successes of the brutal Mao Zedong era, from the late 1940s through mid-1970s.
Is India richer than China? ›
As of 2024, China and India are the 2nd and 5th largest economies in the world, respectively, on a nominal basis. On a PPP basis, China is at 1st, and India is at 3rd place. Both countries share 20.51% and 26.87% of the total global wealth in nominal and PPP terms, respectively.
