China: Is it burdening poor countries with unsustainable debt? (2024)

  • Published

China: Is it burdening poor countries with unsustainable debt? (1)Image source, Getty Images

By Kai Wang

BBC Reality Check

China has faced criticism for its lending practices to poorer countries, accused of leaving them struggling to repay debts and therefore vulnerable to pressure from Beijing.

But that is rejected by China, which accuses some in the West of promoting this narrative to tarnish its image.

It says: "There is not a single country that has fallen into [a] so-called 'debt trap' as a result of borrowing from China."

What do we know about China's lending?

China is one of the world's largest single creditor nations.

Its loans to lower and middle-income countries have tripled over the past decade, reaching $170bn (£125bn) by the end of 2020.

However, China's overall lending commitments are likely to be significantly greater than these figures suggest.

Research by AidData, an international development body at William & Mary University in the US, finds that half of China's lending to developing countries is not reported in official debt statistics.

It is often kept off government balance sheets, directed to state-owned companies and banks, joint ventures or private institutions, rather than directly from government to government.

There are now more than 40 low and middle-income countries, according to AidData, whose debt exposure to Chinese lenders is more than 10% of the size of their annual economic output (GDP) as a result of this "hidden debt".

Djibouti, Laos, Zambia and Kyrgyzstan have debts to China equivalent to at least 20% of their annual GDP.

Much of the debt owed to China relates to large infrastructure projects like roads, railways and ports, and also to the mining and energy industry, under President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative.

What are 'debt traps' and what's the evidence for them?

In an interview with the BBC, Richard Moore, the head of Britain's foreign intelligence agency MI6, said China uses what he called "debt traps" to gain leverage over other countries.

The claim is that China lends money to other countries, which end up having to cede control of key assets if they can't meet their debt repayments - an accusation that's been long denied by Beijing.

One example often cited by critics of China is Sri Lanka, which years ago embarked on a massive port project in Hambantota with Chinese investment.

But the billion dollar project using loans and contractors from China became mired in controversy, and struggled to prove viable, leaving Sri Lanka saddled with growing debts.

Finally, in 2017, Sri Lanka agreed to give state-owned China Merchants a controlling 70% stake in the port on a 99-year lease in return for further Chinese investment.

Image source, Getty Images

Analysis of the port project by UK-based think tank Chatham House has questioned whether the "debt trap" narrative strictly applies, given that the deal was driven by local political motivations, and that China never took formal ownership of the port.

It points out that a large proportion of Sri Lanka's overall debt was owed to non-Chinese lenders, and that there's no evidence China has taken advantage of its position to gain strategic military advantage from the port.

Despite that, there's little doubt China's economic involvement in Sri Lanka has grown in the past decade, and concerns persist that this could be used to advance its political ambitions in the region.

There are other parts of the world where Chinese lending has also proved controversial, with contracts whose terms could give China leverage over important assets.

But there are no cases, among the hundreds of loan arrangements studied by AidData and some other researchers, of Chinese state-owned lenders actually seizing a major asset in the event of a loan default.

How does China's lending compare with others?

China does not publish records of its foreign loans, and the majority of its contracts contain non-disclosure clauses which prevent borrowers from revealing their contents.

"Confidentiality agreements are very common in international commercial loans", says Professor Lee Jones at Queen Mary University of London.

"And much of China's development financing is fundamentally a commercial operation."

Most of the major industrialised nations share information about their lending activities through membership of what's known as the Paris Club.

China has chosen not to join this grouping, but using available World Bank data, the rapid growth in China's reported lending compared to others can be clearly observed.

Are Chinese loans harder to repay?

China tends to lend at higher rates of interest than western governments.

At around 4%, these loans are close to commercial market rates and about four times that of a typical loan from the World Bank or an individual country such as France or Germany.

The required repayment period for a Chinese loan is also generally shorter - less than 10 years, compared to around 28 years for other lenders' concessional loans to developing countries.

Image source, Getty Images

Chinese state-owned lenders also typically require borrowers to maintain a minimum cash balance in an offshore account to which the lender has access.

"If a borrower fails to repay its debt," says Brad Parks, Executive Director of AidData, "China can simply debit funds from [this] account without having to collect on bad debt through a judicial process."

This approach is rarely seen in loans issued by western lenders.

There's currently an initiative by G20 nations - those countries which have the largest and fastest-growing economies - to offer debt relief for poorer countries to help them deal with the impact of the pandemic.

China has joined this and says it has contributed "the highest amount of debt repayment" of any country taking part in the plan.

The World Bank says that since May 2020, a total of more than $10.3bn has been delivered in debt relief by G20 countries under this scheme.

But when we asked the World Bank for a breakdown by country, it said it could not share the information.

Related Topics

China: Is it burdening poor countries with unsustainable debt? (2024)

FAQs

China: Is it burdening poor countries with unsustainable debt? ›

China is owed 37% of poor countries' debt payments in 2022: World Bank. Of the $35 billion that the world's 74 lowest-income nations will owe in debt service payments this year, about 37% — or $13.1 billion — is owed to Chinese entities, according to the World Bank.

How bad is China's debt problem? ›

About a third of China's major cities are struggling to pay just the interest on debt they owe, according to a survey by Rhodium Group, a New York-based research firm. In one extreme case, in Lanzhou, the capital city of Gansu province, interest payments were the equivalent of 74% of fiscal revenue in 2021.

How many countries are debt trapped by China? ›

Between 2008 and 2021, China spent $240 billion bailing out 22 countries that are “almost exclusively” debtors in Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road infrastructure project, including Argentina, Pakistan, Kenya and Turkey, according to the study published Tuesday by researchers from the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy ...

Which country owe the most debt to China? ›

The countries with the biggest debt burdens in relative terms were Djibouti and Angola, followed by the Maldives and Laos, which opened a debt-laden railway line to China last year. The President of the World Bank, David Malpass, has called the level of debt “unsustainable” that many countries once again hold.

Does China debt trap countries? ›

A neologism, the term was first coined by Indian academic Brahma Chellaney in 2017, to allege that the Chinese government leverages the debt burden of smaller countries for geopolitical ends. However, other analysts have described the idea of a Chinese debt trap as a "myth" or "distraction".

What would happen if China called in our debt? ›

If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.

Do we owe China a lot of money? ›

As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

How much is US owing China? ›

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt
RankCountryU.S. Treasury Holdings
1🇯🇵 Japan$1,076B
2🇨🇳 China$867B
3🇬🇧 United Kingdom$655B
4🇧🇪 Belgium$354B
6 more rows
Mar 24, 2023

What country owes the most debt? ›

United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%.

Which country has highest debt? ›

Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest in the world due to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and demographic challenges.

Why does China owe us debt? ›

Key Takeaways. China invests heavily in U.S. Treasury bonds to keep its export prices lower. China focuses on export-led growth to help generate jobs. To keep its export prices low, China must keep its currency—the renminbi (RMB)—low compared to the U.S. dollar.

Why do so many countries owe China money? ›

Much of the debt owed to China relates to large infrastructure projects like roads, railways and ports, and also to the mining and energy industry, under President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative.

Why does the US owe China a lot of money? ›

The US owes so much money to China because of the large trade and investment deficit the US currently has with China. This deficit is the result of a combination of factors, including rising wages and technology costs in the US, slow growth in the US economy, and US policies that favor the import of goods from China.

Does China control US debt? ›

China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. Together they own $2 trillion — more than a quarter — of the $7.6 trillion in US Treasury securities held by foreign countries.

Is China more indebted than us? ›

The United States, holding the highest national debt globally, has a total of $31.68 trillion, representing a YoY increase of $1.3 trillion or 4.28%, reaching $30.38 trillion. Therefore, China's national debt has surged almost three times that of the United States in the past 12 months.

How much does Africa owe China? ›

Chinese lenders account for 12% of Africa's private and public external debt, which increased more than fivefold to $696 billion from 2000 to 2020. China is a major creditor of many African nations, but its lending has fallen in recent years and is set to remain at lower levels.

Why doesn t China sell U.S. debt? ›

China reduced its holdings of US Treasury debt for the sixth straight month in January, which analysts said was mainly due to the US Federal Reserve's rate hikes and China's long-term security-driven diversification of its foreign exchange reserves.

Which country owes the most money to China? ›

At the end of 2021, of the 98 countries for whom data was available, Pakistan ($27.4 billion of external debt to China), Angola (22.0 billion), Ethiopia (7.4 billion), Kenya (7.4 billion) and Sri Lanka (7.2 billion) held the biggest debts to China.

Who does the US owe its debt to? ›

Investors in Japan and China hold significant shares of U.S. public debt. Together, as of September 2022, they accounted for nearly $2 trillion, or about 8 percent of DHBP. While China's holdings of U.S. debt have declined over the past decade, Japan has slightly increased their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.

What happens if China sells U.S. debt? ›

Yes, when China sells U.S. Treasuries in bond markets, that pushes the prices of bonds down generally. And cheaper prices for bonds means higher bond “yields,” or interest rates. So China's sales do piggyback onto similar sales by the Federal Reserve to implement its policy of raising short-term interest rates.

Is there a country with no debt? ›

A low level of debt shows less reliance on foreign borrowings. The best example can be taken from Hong Kong (it is a one of the debt free countries), whose economy has the least debt to GDP ratio. It is an almost debt free country. It has a well-regulated financial system and large foreign reserves.

Which country has no debt? ›

The 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
CharacteristicNational debt in relation to GDP
Macao SAR0%
Brunei Darussalam2.06%
Kuwait2.92%
Hong Kong SAR4.26%
9 more rows
May 11, 2023

Why does the US owe so much money? ›

Since the government almost always spends more than it takes in via taxes and other revenue, the national debt continues to rise. To finance federal budget deficits, the U.S. government issues government bonds, known as Treasuries.

What happens if US defaults on debt? ›

U.S. debt, long viewed as ultra-safe

A default could shatter the $24 trillion market for Treasury debt, cause financial markets to freeze up and ignite an international crisis.

How much does China owe the US for ww2? ›

Within part of its wartime financial aid, the American government gave China a $500 million credit in 1942 and shipped these funds in the form of gold bullion. This was done to stabilize their currency. Our own State Department records show that China never paid back this debt to the American government either.

Which country has the best economy? ›

United States

Who does the US borrow money from? ›

The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

Why Japan has so much debt? ›

A flurry of big spending packages and ballooning social welfare costs for a rapidly ageing population have left Japan with a debt pile 263% the size of its economy - double the ratio for the United States and the highest among major economies.

What happens if a country refuses to pay its debt? ›

Today, a government that defaults may be widely excluded from further credit; some of its overseas assets may be seized; and it may face political pressure from its own domestic bondholders to pay back its debt. Therefore, governments rarely default on the entire value of their debt.

Which countries have bad debt? ›

List
Country/RegionExternal debt US dollarsDate
United States31 trillionJanuary 2023
United Kingdom8.73 trillionJune 2022
France7.04 trillionJune 2022
Germany6.46 trillionJune 2022
91 more rows

How can we fix national debt? ›

Bailouts and debt defaults can also help a government solve a debt problem, but these approaches have notable drawbacks as well.
  1. Issuing Debt With Bonds.
  2. Interest Rate Manipulation.
  3. Instituting Spending Cuts.
  4. Raising Taxes.
  5. Lowering Debt Successes.
  6. National Debt Bailout.
  7. Controversy with Every Method.

Does the US get money from China? ›

In 2021, U.S. exports to China were $151.1 billion, a 21.4% ($26.6 billion) increase from 2020; the U.S. imports from China were $506.4 billion, a 16.5% ($71.6 billion) increase; and the trade deficit with China was $355.3 billion, a 14.5% ($45.0 billion) increase.

Who has debt to China? ›

At the end of 2021, of the 98 countries for whom data was available, Pakistan ($27.4bn of external debt to China), Angola (22.0bn), Ethiopia (7.4bn), Kenya (7.4bn) and Sri Lanka (7.2bn) held the biggest debts to China.

Is China debt trapping Africa? ›

China's financing cooperation with Africa is mainly in fields such as infrastructure development and production capacity, with a view to enhancing Africa's capacity for independent and sustainable development. The so-called China's "debt trap" in Africa is a narrative trap imposed on China and Africa.

How much does the world owe China? ›

When adding portfolio debts (including the $1 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt purchased by China's central bank) and trade credits (to buy goods and services), the Chinese government's aggregate claims to the rest of the world exceed $5 trillion in total.

Why does China have so little debt? ›

China has little overseas debt, and a high national savings rate. In addition, most of the debt is state owned – state-controlled banks loaned funds to state-controlled firms – giving the government the ability to manage the situation.

Has the United States ever been debt free? ›

As a result, the U.S. actually did become debt free, for the first and only time, at the beginning of 1835 and stayed that way until 1837. It remains the only time that a major country was without debt. Jackson and his followers believed that freedom from debt was the linchpin in establishing a free republic.

What will happen if the national debt gets too high? ›

Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.

How much is America in debt? ›

When the government spends more than it earns, it has a budget deficit and must issue debt in the form of Treasury securities. The U.S. has run a deficit for the last 20 years, substantially increasing the national debt. In fact, according to the Department of the Treasury, the current debt is $31.4 trillion.

What kind of US debt does China hold? ›

Overall, foreign countries each make up a relatively small proportion of U.S. debt-holders. Although China's holdings have represented just under 20 percent of foreign-owned U.S. debt in the past several years, this percentage only comprises between 5 and 7 percent of total U.S. debt.

Does the US have a better economy than China? ›

The U.S. has been the largest economy in the world by GDP since the metric came into favor in the mid-1900s. But China has grown at a far greater pace in recent decades, with its GDP growing from just 12% of the U.S.' in 2000 to 77% last year.

What is Canada's current national debt? ›

Debt securities accumulation at market and nominal value of Canadian general government, 2008 to 2021. Federal government net debt edged down in 2021 (-$4.1 billion) to $910.5 billion, still above pre-pandemic levels.

Did China buy land in Africa? ›

The total area of Africa is approximately 1.2 billion acres, of which 71% is covered by land and 29% is covered by water. The total area of land that China owns in Africa is approximately 186,000 square miles (465,000 square kilometers). This is around 7% of the total land area in Africa.

How can a country come out of a debt trap? ›

The five ways out of the Debt Trap are (1) let the economy grow the country out of the trap, (2) default and repudiate the debt, (3) print money to pay for it, (4) raise taxes and/or reduce expenses ...

How much money do we pay China? ›

Get ready for this statistic – China owns 981 billion dollars in U.S debt. That means we owe China nearly a trillion dollars!

Is China in massive debt? ›

The total debt of China's LGFVs has swelled to a record 66 trillion yuan ($9.5 trillion), equivalent to half of the country's economy, from 57 trillion yuan last year, according to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report last month.

How much of China is in debt? ›

China: National debt from 2018 to 2028 (in billion U.S. dollars)
CharacteristicNational debt in billion U.S. dollars
202112,037.79
202010,525.24
20198,755.89
20187,591.91
7 more rows
Apr 14, 2023

Is America in debt to China? ›

China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. Together they own $2 trillion — more than a quarter — of the $7.6 trillion in US Treasury securities held by foreign countries.

How much does the United States owe China? ›

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt
RankCountryU.S. Treasury Holdings
1🇯🇵 Japan$1,076B
2🇨🇳 China$867B
3🇬🇧 United Kingdom$655B
4🇧🇪 Belgium$354B
6 more rows
Mar 24, 2023

Why doesn t China sell US debt? ›

China reduced its holdings of US Treasury debt for the sixth straight month in January, which analysts said was mainly due to the US Federal Reserve's rate hikes and China's long-term security-driven diversification of its foreign exchange reserves.

Is China in more debt than the US? ›

The United States, holding the highest national debt globally, has a total of $31.68 trillion, representing a YoY increase of $1.3 trillion or 4.28%, reaching $30.38 trillion. Therefore, China's national debt has surged almost three times that of the United States in the past 12 months.

Why does the US owe China so much money? ›

The US owes so much money to China because of the large trade and investment deficit the US currently has with China. This deficit is the result of a combination of factors, including rising wages and technology costs in the US, slow growth in the US economy, and US policies that favor the import of goods from China.

What country owes the most debt to the US? ›

According to usafacts.org, as of January 2023, Japan owned $1.1 trillion in US Treasuries, making it the largest foreign holder of the national debt.

What country is not in debt? ›

The 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
CharacteristicNational debt in relation to GDP
Macao SAR0%
Brunei Darussalam2.06%
Kuwait2.92%
Hong Kong SAR4.26%
9 more rows
May 11, 2023

Does the US borrow money from China? ›

Investors in Japan and China hold significant shares of U.S. public debt. Together, as of September 2022, they accounted for nearly $2 trillion, or about 8 percent of DHBP. While China's holdings of U.S. debt have declined over the past decade, Japan has slightly increased their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.

How long will it take to pay off the US national debt? ›

To pay back one million dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 11.5 days. To pay back one billion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 32 years. To pay back one trillion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 31,688 years.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Mrs. Angelic Larkin

Last Updated:

Views: 6444

Rating: 4.7 / 5 (47 voted)

Reviews: 86% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Mrs. Angelic Larkin

Birthday: 1992-06-28

Address: Apt. 413 8275 Mueller Overpass, South Magnolia, IA 99527-6023

Phone: +6824704719725

Job: District Real-Estate Facilitator

Hobby: Letterboxing, Vacation, Poi, Homebrewing, Mountain biking, Slacklining, Cabaret

Introduction: My name is Mrs. Angelic Larkin, I am a cute, charming, funny, determined, inexpensive, joyous, cheerful person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.