Can China surpass the United States as the next world superpower? (2024)

MSc Development Management candidate Joe Spillane unpacks the current rivalry between China and the United States and investigates two possible interventions that could propel China to global supremacy.

It’s a question that’s been asked many times, by many people, for many years: will China overtake the US as the world’s leading power? China’s ascendance represents the most significant shift in global power since the end of the Cold War. Centuries of American and European hegemony are being challenged by advancements in technology, economic growth, and diplomatic relations that are all led by China. Even though it has made tremendous strides in building up its military and strengthening its diplomatic capacity, the paradox of China’s high gross domestic product (GDP) coupled with low GDP per capita, and its exclusion from crucial free trade agreements, are the main reasons why it lags behind American supremacy. However, through poverty alleviating efforts and further trade negotiations, it is possible for The Sleeping Giant to, in the words of Napoleon, “wake up and shake the world.”

The proliferation of the Chinese military is the greatest challenge to America’s hegemony as a global war power. Not only does China have 2 million more personnel than the US military, but it also has the highest number of active-duty combatants in the world, counting 2,185,000 members. China is also poised to quadruple its stockpile of nuclear warheads by 2035, bringing it to close parity with the United States. However, the most significant clash between the two involves two territorial disputes: the South China Sea and Taiwan. The South China Sea connects much of East Asia to critical trade routes through the Strait of Malacca, so the country that exercises the most power over this area can also control the safe passage of trade to India and Africa. China is increasing its military presence here by building artificial islands on coral atolls, deploying fighter jets to surveil the skies, and setting up over 20 military outposts to monitor shipping activities. The American and Chinese navies have already exchanged a handful of cruise missiles, and few efforts have been made to de-escalate these tensions. Regarding Taiwan, reunification with the mainland has long been an agenda item for the Chinese Communist Party. In October 2022, President Xi Jinping delivered multiple emblazoned speeches warning foreign powers, notably the United States, against interference in a “peaceful” reunification. To “achieve a great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” the military has ramped up preparations for a possible invasion,which puts the United States in a precarious diplomatic position – so much so that American businessmen have begged Congress to help relocate Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, the largest in the world, to new factories in Arizona and Ohio.

China is also becoming an increasingly popular diplomatic partner. As a member of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) group, China has committed itself to promoting economic equality and mutual benefit across the developing world, which has strengthened its relationships with multiple African and Latin American countries. In fact, of the dozens of multilateral development banks that are scattered throughout the globe, four of them are now headquartered in China: The China Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and most importantly, the BRICS’s New Development Bank. These four banks represent enticing alternatives to Western-dominated development institutions like the World Bank or International Monetary Fund and they also benefit from being backed by China’s fast-growing, relatively stable economy. This latter element distinguishes them from other non-Western development institutions that lack the political stability or economic footprint to support sustainable lending and borrowing.

The one sector where China continues to fall behind the United States is economic performance. This might be surprising since China is currently the second largest economy in the world and is poised to overtake the size of the US economy by 2050. However, measuring the Chinese economy solely in terms of GDP is misleading because it obscures China’s severe intra-country inequality. Using GDP per capita provides a more accurate depiction of how national income is distributed across its vast population. In 2021, Chinese GDP per capita stalled at $12,556.30, whereas the United States’ GDP per capita soared to $69,287.54. This means that the average income earned per person in the United States was more than five times that of China’s. Furthermore, China’s trade capacity is routinely challenged by Western free trade agreements that are deliberately designed to circ*mscribe Chinese expansion. For example, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) supported by the Obama Administration excluded China from free trade with economic partners on both sides of the Pacific. When the Trump administration withdrew the United States from the TPP in 2017, the remaining countries created the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which hinders China’s trade relations with Canada, Australia, and Mexico.

However, if China dedicates itself toward massive poverty alleviation and better openness to free trade agreements, it could reach its goal of becoming the world’s next superpower. Work is already underway toward internal poverty alleviation, with over 800 million people already lifted out of extreme poverty. Most of China’s poverty reduction efforts are concentrated in geographically disadvantaged areas, which has provided global policymakers with new lessons on how to use “targeted support” to combat persistent impoverishment. China is also negotiating several new free trade agreements, with the most important being a free trade zone between Japan and South Korea. If successful, this will provide free trade access to the third and thirteenth largest economies in the world. There is still much work to be done to propel China to the top of the world’s economy, but it is certainly possible that the Chinese economy can surpass the power of the US by 2050. It may also be too early to make definitive projections of China’s future. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have yet to be fully felt there, and the rising probability of an invasion of Taiwan could damage the diplomatic capacity it spent decades to build. Nonetheless, China is a force to be reckoned with, and the international community should pay close attention to how its ascendance unfolds.

The views expressed in this post are those of the author and in no way reflect those of the International Development LSE blog or the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Image Credit:李 季霖 via Flickr.

Can China surpass the United States as the next world superpower? (2024)

FAQs

Will China surpass the US in power? ›

There is still much work to be done to propel China to the top of the world's economy, but it is certainly possible that the Chinese economy can surpass the power of the US by 2050. It may also be too early to make definitive projections of China's future.

Which country can be the next superpower? ›

India is expected to overtake Germany in terms of GDP in 2025 and Japan in 2027 to become the third largest economy after the U.S. and China.

When did Will China overtake the US as the world's leading economic power? ›

China is forecast to overtake the US as the world's largest economy by around 2035, while India is expected to become the world's second largest by 2075.

Which country will be most powerful in 2100? ›

In the univariate model, China will be the largest economy in the world in 2100, producing some 27% of global output. India will be the second largest economy accounting for 16.2% of global output and the US will be third with 12.3% of global output. So, it's the century of China then.

Who is stronger China or the USA? ›

Although China lags behind the United States regarding operational skills and military hardware, it has also improved relative capabilities in many areas. China has the second largest air force in the world after the United States, which has the most significant air force strength.

Which country will rule the world in 2025? ›

According to a recent report by Harvard University, “From economic complexity growth estimates, India is growing at the annual list at the rate of 7.9 percent as the fastest growing country for the coming decade.

Who will rule the world in 2050? ›

China is expected to hold on to the number one spot. In 2050, the Asian giant is forecast to have the largest economy on the planet. With an ageing population and an annual GDP growth rate averaging just 4.4%, however, China isn't projected to enjoy the exceptional economic growth it experienced during the 2000s.

Who will be the richest country in 2050? ›

Richest Country in 2050 will be United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product in 2050 is estimated to be 3.58 trillion US dollars, with a per capita income of 49,412 US dollars. The present gap between the British economic wealth and Germany's economic wealth will contract significantly.

Who will be the biggest superpower in 2050? ›

As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th) The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27's share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050.

Does China owe the US money? ›

As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

Which economy is better China or USA? ›

The U.S. currently has the largest economy in the world by far with $23 trillion in 2021 GDP, according to the World Bank's data, while China has the second-largest GDP at $18 trillion and India the sixth-largest at $3 trillion.

What would happen if the US stopped importing from China? ›

This data suggests that if U.S. hypothetically stops buying Chinese goods, China's export will suffer a 18% loss, which accounts for 18%*20% = 3.6% of China's GDP. It is unlikely a 3.6% loss in GDP will collapse the Chinese economy.

Which country will dominate the world in future? ›

In 2017, Center for International Development at Harvard University, published a research study, projecting that India has emerged as the economic pole of global growth by surpassing China and is expected to maintain its lead over the 2020s.

Which country will be the most powerful in 50 years? ›

While challenges remain, most experts believe that China will be the new superpower by 2050. China GDP in 2050 is expected to be around $58.5 trillion.

Can China defeat US Navy? ›

An American naval expert has warned US military planners that the US Navy might lose to China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, which enjoys a substantial numerical advantage over the US, saying, “the side with the most ships almost always wins.”

Is China more advanced than the US? ›

In other words, on a proportional basis, China is now roughly 75 percent as advanced in innovation and advanced-industry production as the United States. If this relative growth continues apace, China will surpass the United States by 2035.

Who will be the world power in 2030? ›

This chart shows how China will soar past the U.S. to become the world's largest economy by 2030. Meanwhile, the total GDP of the global economy is predicted to double between 2022 and 2035.

Which country will be powerful in the world in 2030? ›

From Good to Great
RankCountryProj. GDP (2030, PPP)
#1China$64.2 trillion
#2India$46.3 trillion
#3United States$31.0 trillion
#4Indonesia$10.1 trillion
6 more rows
Mar 27, 2019

Which countries will become First World? ›

Examples of first world countries include the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. Several Western European nations qualify as well, especially Great Britain, France, Germany, Switzerland, and the Scandinavian countries. The ways that first world countries are defined can vary.

Which country has the strongest economy in the world? ›

United States of America

Will Earth survive 2025? ›

While we'll likely see more solar flares – and resulting complications – as we approach to 2025, there's no need to fear a doomsday scenario. “Some people worry that a gigantic 'killer solar flare' could hurl enough energy to destroy Earth, but this is not actually possible,” NASA explains.

Who are the 5 superpowers in the world? ›

China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States are often referred to as great powers by academics due to "their political and economic dominance of the global arena". These five nations are the only states to have permanent seats with veto power on the UN Security Council.

Who will rule the world in 2100? ›

A new study published yesterday in The Lancet journal has predicted that India, Nigeria, China and the United States (U.S.) will be dominant global powers by the year 2100. The publication's Editor-in-Chief, Dr. Richard Horton, said: “This research charts a future we need to be planning for urgently.

What will life be like in 2050? ›

According to a US report, the sea level will increase by 2050. Due to which many cities and islands situated on the shores of the sea will get absorbed in the water. By 2050, 50% of jobs will also be lost because robots will be doing most of the work at that time. Let us tell you that 2050 will be a challenge to death.

What superpower is most possible? ›

Here are the ones I consider the most realistic.
  • Pure Fighters (Hawk Eye, Shang-Chi, Power Fist — except for the power fist, Kick Ass, Moon Knight)
  • Gadget Hero (Batman of course, Hawk Eye — again)
  • Exoskeleton (Iron Man)
  • Underwater Swimming and Communication With Sea Stuff (Aquaman, Sub-Mariner)
Mar 24, 2021

Who is the world's only superpower? ›

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 which ended the Cold War, the post–Cold War world has in the past been considered by some to be a unipolar world, with the United States as the world's sole remaining superpower. In 1999, Samuel P.

Who is No 1 superpower? ›

United States. The United States of America is a North American nation that is the world's most dominant economic and military power. Likewise, its cultural imprint spans the world, led in large part by its popular culture expressed in music, movies and television.

What if China sold all U.S. debt? ›

If China (or any other nation having a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

Which country has no debt? ›

The 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
CharacteristicNational debt in relation to GDP
Macao SAR0%
Brunei Darussalam2.06%
Kuwait2.92%
Hong Kong SAR4.26%
9 more rows
May 11, 2023

Does anyone owe the US money? ›

1 Foreign governments hold a large portion of the public debt, while the rest is owned by U.S. banks and investors, the Federal Reserve, state and local governments, mutual funds, pensions funds, insurance companies, and holders of savings bonds.

Is USA more rich than China? ›

The U.S. makes up 23.93% of the total global economy, says Investopedia. The World Bank Group lists China as the second richest country in the world as of 2021, possessing a GDP of $17.734 trillion along with a GDP per capita of $12,556.3. China makes up 18.45% of the total global economy.

Is China growing faster than the US? ›

China Is Growing Much Faster Than the U.S. Why It Matters for Global Power.

Is China in a debt crisis? ›

China's $23 Trillion Local Debt Crisis Threatens Xi's Economy - Bloomberg.

Does the US need China? ›

U.S. trade with China has grown enormously in recent decades and is crucial for both countries. Today, the United States imports more from China than from any other country, and China is one of the largest export markets for U.S. goods and services.

What does the US rely on China for? ›

In 2021, U.S. exports of Agricultural Products to China continue to show an upward trend. In 2021, U.S. exports of Agriculture Products were $31.6 billion, an increase of 27.5% ($6.8 billion) from $24.8 billion in 2020. In 2021, China remained the major source of U.S. imports of Textile Products.

Why are US companies pulling out of China? ›

For the first time in about 25 years, China is not a top three investment priority for a majority of US firms, with geopolitical tensions and domestic economic issues driving businesses to increasingly focus elsewhere, according to a new report.

What is the best country to live in right now? ›

1. Sweden. Sweden is the top country in 2022 best quality of life rankings. The country stands out in the ranking of quality of life for health systems and well-developed public education, security, economic stability, and politics.

Who will be the top economic powers in 2050? ›

In 2050, our projections imply that the world's five largest economies (measured in USD) will be China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany (with Indonesia displacing Brazil and Russia among the list of largest EMs over this horizon; Exhibit 4).

Which country is most likely to become a superpower? ›

China. China is considered to be an emerging superpower or a potential superpower. Some experts argue that China will pass the United States as a global superpower in the coming decades. China's 2020 GDP was US$14.7 trillion, the second-highest in the world.

Where will be the US economy by 2050? ›

The US share of the global economy has dropped from 28 percent in 1950 to about 17 percent today. Our central forecast is for a share of perhaps 12 percent in 2050, while our scenarios suggest a range between 6.7 percent and 18.6 percent.

Which country is expected to overtake the United States by 2050 to become the world's third largest country? ›

Consequently, the population of Nigeria is projected to surpass that of the United States by about 2050, at which point it would become the third largest country in the world. By 2050, six countries are expected to exceed 300 million: China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the USA.

What year did America become the strongest country? ›

The United States was first referred to as a superpower in 1944. After the destruction caused by the Second World War, the United States, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union were the world's strongest remaining countries.

When did America become the most powerful country? ›

Between 1865 and 1975, the United States of America went through vast periods of transformation, culminating in its emergence and establishment as the world's preeminent superpower.

Who will be the richest country in 2100? ›

In the univariate model, China will be the largest economy in the world in 2100, producing some 27% of global output. India will be the second largest economy accounting for 16.2% of global output and the US will be third with 12.3% of global output.

Is the US still the most powerful country in the world? ›

Overall, the most powerful countries in the world are those with a combination of economic, military, and cultural power. The United States remains the most powerful country in the world, followed by China and Russia.

How much does the US owe China? ›

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt
RankCountryU.S. Treasury Holdings
1🇯🇵 Japan$1,076B
2🇨🇳 China$867B
3🇬🇧 United Kingdom$655B
4🇧🇪 Belgium$354B
6 more rows
Mar 24, 2023

How will China's economy affect the US? ›

In short, China can continue to contribute to the growth of our external trade and our economic welfare associated with trade. Because China is an efficient producer of a wide range of commodities, imports from that country may also contribute to low price inflation in the United States.

Does China use more energy than the US? ›

China consumes by far the most electricity of any country in the world, with more than 7.8 terawatt-hours consumed in 2021. The United States ranked as the second-leading electricity consumer that year, with nearly 4,000 terawatt hours consumed.

Which country has the most powerful Defence in the world? ›

1. United States Of America. US Military has the biggest defence budget in the world. They are known for their most powerful Air Force on the planet, named as United States Air Force (USAF).

Which is the No 1 powerful country in the world? ›

1) United States of America

United States of America The United States is the world's most powerful country, with a dominant military, economic strength, and cultural influence.

What happens if China dumps dollar? ›

If China (or any other nation having a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

Does USA owe money to China? ›

However, this has declined over time, and as of 2022 they controlled approximately 25% of foreign-owned debt. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

Can China call in U.S. debt? ›

Key Takeaways. Whether you're an American retiree or a Chinese bank, American debt is considered a sound investment. The Chinese yuan, like the currencies of many nations, is tied to the U.S. dollar. Because of varying maturities dates, China would be unable to call in all its Treasury holdings at once.

What does China need from the US? ›

Aircraft, soybeans, motor vehicles and microchips are top U.S. exports to China. Since 2001, the share of these exports going to China has increased sharply. Soybeans and motor vehicles are targets of recent Chinese tariffs.

Is the US or China better off economically? ›

The U.S. currently has the largest economy in the world by far with $23 trillion in 2021 GDP, according to the World Bank's data, while China has the second-largest GDP at $18 trillion and India the sixth-largest at $3 trillion.

Where does America get most of its energy? ›

Fossil fuels are the largest sources of energy for electricity generation.

What uses the most power in the world? ›

Heating and cooling are the largest residential electricity uses.

Does China have more technology than the US? ›

China has a significant lead in key areas of technology compared to the U.S. The cutting edge of technology in 2023 is artificial intelligence, with the (sometimes creepy) ChatGPT nearing an “iPhone moment” as a revolutionary tool that is being adopted at record speed.

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