Why Do House Prices Rise Faster in Some Cities? (2024)

The fraction of high-income families in superstar cities is 43 percent higher than in average cities, and those cities' share of poor families is 11 percent lower.

Between 1950 and 2000, the price of housing grew by an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.2 to 3.5 percent in the ten U.S. metropolitan areas with the highest rates of growth, and by 0.5 to 1.1 percent in the ten U.S. metropolitan areas with the lowest rates of growth. Over the same time period, the number of families living in U.S. metropolitan areas doubled and the number of families with inflation-adjusted incomes above $140,000 in 2000 dollars grew more than eight-fold.

In Superstar Cities (NBER Working Paper No. 12355), authors Joseph Gyourko, Christopher Mayer, and Todd Sinai suggest that the explosive growth in house prices in high-cost cities is fueled by three factors: the scarcity of housing units, the growing number of high income families in the United States, and the fact that high-income families have been willing to outbid lower-income families for scarce housing in preferred locations.

Superstar cities are those with an inelastic supply of housing (that is, cities where it is difficult to construct new housing because of geographical constraints or zoning) and an appeal to a broad clientele of potential residents. As households compete for the scarce locations, the ones with the highest willingness-to-pay - a function of a household's desire to live in a given city and how much money it has - bid up house prices. Using a simple method to roughly categorize cities as "superstars," the authors find that in the 1960-80 period only San Francisco and Los Angeles clearly qualified. Between 1970 and 2000, twenty more metropolitan areas, including New York and Boston, were added. Cities that have experienced explosive growth but remain outside the superstar category, like Las Vegas and Phoenix, are distinguished by their ability to build enough housing to moderate price increases.

As the U.S. population grows, both in absolute number and in income, the fraction of people who can reside in their preferred cities declines when those cities cannot add enough new residences. The process of bidding to live in high-demand, low-supply cities changes the composition of residents as rising house prices mean that lower-income families are crowded out of the hottest areas and replaced by higher-income households. For example, in San Francisco the share of families earning more than $110,000 grew by 21 percent between 1970 and 2000. Nationwide, the average growth in that income group was 9 percent.

Overall, the fraction of high-income families in superstar cities is 43 percent higher than in average cities, and those cities' share of poor families is 11 percent lower. Recent movers into superstar cities are more likely to have high incomes and less likely to be poor, than recent movers into other cities. The higher share of rich and lower share of poor also holds true for superstar places, that is, desirable towns with a relatively fixed housing stock within a metropolitan area.

With more relatively wealthy people bidding on a limited housing stock, the price of entry-level houses, and the price-to-rent ratio, accelerates when cities fill up and approach superstar status. Entry-level prices and the price-to-rent ratio also increase at higher rates when the number of high-income families increases nationally.

In short, residence in superstar cities and towns has become a luxury good. The cities' increases in housing price appear to outstrip known productivity increases and the value of any additional amenities.

The authors note that the evolution of superstar cities has important implications for the future of urban areas. For example, it raises the question of whether a metropolitan area that becomes affordable only to the wealthy can maintain its cultural or economic vibrancy. It also raises the question of what optimal public policy should be - and whether it should lead to an outcome where lower income workers cannot afford to live in superstar markets. For example, existing superstar cities and towns could moderate their housing costs by allowing increased density, but have chosen not to

-- Linda Gorman

Why Do House Prices Rise Faster in Some Cities? (2024)

FAQs

Why Do House Prices Rise Faster in Some Cities? ›

Recent movers into superstar cities are more likely to have high incomes and less likely to be poor, than recent movers into other cities. The higher share of rich and lower share of poor also holds true for superstar places, that is, desirable towns with a relatively fixed housing stock within a metropolitan area.

Why are prices higher in cities? ›

One reason is the cost of space, which you already mentioned re: housing. But goods also need to be housed and space costs more per square meter in a city. Another reason is that often the factory or farm that mass produces goods / food are located outside the city... So there is added cost of transportation.

Where are home values increasing the most? ›

U.S. metros with the biggest increases in home values in 2022
  • FarmingtonNew Mexico. 20.3% ...
  • North Port-Sarasota-BradentonFlorida. 19.5% ...
  • Naples-Immokalee-Marco IslandFlorida. 17.2% ...
  • Greensboro-High PointNorth Carolina. 17% ...
  • Myrtle Beach-ConwayS.Carolina/N.Carolina. ...
  • Oshkosh-NeenahWisconsin. ...
  • Winston-SalemNorth Carolina. ...
  • El PasoTexas.
Feb 13, 2023

Why are homes more expensive in some areas of the country compared to others? ›

First and foremost, far less housing has been built in California's coastal areas than people demand. As a result, households bid up the cost of housing in coastal regions. In addition, some of the unmet demand to live in coastal areas spills over into inland California, driving up prices there too.

Why more central locations attract higher real estate prices? ›

High demand from firms for these central locations pushes up the price of property.

Why are some towns more expensive than others? ›

Reputation. How an area is perceived has a sway on how much people are willing to pay for housing. If a town, village or city has a great reputation, it'll be more in demand and this will drive up prices. Word of mouth counts for a lot.

Will house prices go down in 2023 usa? ›

Although home prices are expected to improve in the second half of the year, the California median home price is projected to decrease by 5.6 percent to $776,600 in 2023, down from the median price of $822,300 recorded in 2022.

Will 2023 be a good time to buy a house? ›

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

In which states are house prices most overvalued? ›

At a state level, Hawaii, South Carolina and North Carolina were the most overvalued housing markets, Fitch said.

Where is the most unaffordable housing in the country? ›

The least affordable was Miami, where the median-priced home costs $598,000 and would require a monthly payment of $3,183 to cover mortgage and taxes — more than 85 percent of the local median household income of $44,581 (or $3,715 a month).

Which country has the most unaffordable houses? ›

According to the 2023 International Housing Affordability Survey by Demographia, three out of the 10 least affordable housing markets are in Australia and New Zealand, two are in Canada and four more are located in the United States. The least affordable housing market is Hong Kong.

Where is the most unaffordable housing market in the country? ›

Full Data Set
RankCountyMedian Home Price
1Ada County, Idaho$452,219
2Collier County, Florida$435,313
3Travis County, Texas$456,690
4Williamson County, Texas$378,412
9 more rows
May 1, 2023

What are the most overvalued cities for home prices? ›

The most overvalued markets to purchase a home tend to be in California, but also include Seattle, Washington, and “Zoom towns” such as Boise, Idaho, and Greeley, Colorado. The most overvalued markets to rent a home are mostly found in California and Florida.

What city has the hottest real estate market? ›

The hottest housing markets include those markets in North Carolina, Colorado and Texas that were also popular during the pandemic, including Raleigh and Durham, Denver and Austin. Markets to watch that improved the most between November and December 2022 include Portland, Oregon, Richmond, Virginia, and St.

Which city has the highest property prices? ›

1. Hong Kong. Hong Kong, China.

What is the most unaffordable state? ›

Hawaii and California are the LEAST affordable places to live in the U.S as incomes fail to keep up with soaring property prices.

Why are small towns cheaper to live in? ›

Low Cost of Living

Housing isn't the only thing that's more affordable in towns. Virtually everything is less expensive compared to the city, and the small things add up. Factors like property tax, goods and food, restaurant prices, insurance rates, and even gas prices tend to be much lower.

Why is it better to live in a small town? ›

Everything in a small town costs less, from houses and utilities to groceries. You can often buy a house in a small town for the same price that you would pay for a studio apartment in a big city. Small towns also typically have lower property taxes, which makes owning a home much more affordable.

Is it better to live in a small or big city? ›

Smaller towns are much less likely to have a rate of high crime, which means you might enjoy an improved sense of safety. Living in a small town also means you will experience far less pollution from cars, factories and power plants, resulting in air that is much cleaner.

Why do some people prefer to live in big cities? ›

Towns and cities appeal to people for a lot of reasons: Improved public transport, a mix of cultures, job opportunities and easy access to shops and amenities. But the lifestyle that comes with an urban area might not be what you're used to, so make sure you're aware of the pros and cons before any big moves.

Why it's better to live in a big city? ›

No matter what your interests, big cities provide every type of entertainment for residents. While some options can be costly, museums and historic sites are often free or allow entrance for a small donation. The entertainment advantages of living in a big city like Chicago are endless.

Will 2024 be a good time to buy a house? ›

With mortgage rates declining faster than expected, home prices are likely to remain mostly flat throughout 2024. This will be good news for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for a good time to enter the market.

What is the best date to close on a house? ›

If you need to be occupying your home by a certain date to save on rent, it's a much better deal to close at the end of the previous month (for example, January 30) instead of the beginning of the current month (February 1).

Will mortgage rates drop in 2024? ›

Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors expect mortgage rates to drop through the first quarter of 2024, by half a percentage point to about nine-tenths of a percentage point. Figures are the predicted quarterly average rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Will interest rates drop in 2023? ›

We expect that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.2%,” the organization noted in its forecast commentary. It since has walked back its forecast slightly but still sees rates dipping below 6%, to 5.6%, by the end of the year.

How high will interest rates go in 2023? ›

So far in 2023, the Fed raised rates 0.25 percentage points twice. If they hike rates at the May meeting, it is likely to be another 0.25% jump, meaning interest rates will have increased by 0.75% in 2023, up to 5.25%.

What should you not do when staging a house? ›

20 Most Common Staging Mistakes
  1. Too Much Furniture.
  2. Furniture That Doesn't Fit the Room.
  3. Household Smells.
  4. Keeping Knick Knacks on Display.
  5. Excessive Dark Paint.
  6. Drastically Different Paint Colors Throughout the Home.
  7. Pushing All Furniture Against the Walls.
  8. A Lack of Light.

Where is the slowest real estate market? ›

The Bay Area has the worst performing housing market in the nation, according to a new report.

Are homes in 97% of US cities overvalued? ›

Just over a year ago, research firm Moody's Analytics claimed that the home values in 97% of the largest housing markets in the U.S. were “overvalued” and due for a fall in house prices of between 5% to 10%.

Which three US cities reported the highest price increase in houses that are for sale? ›

Metro areaPercent change
1Boise, Idaho12.99
2Provo-Orem, Utah12.22
3Ocala, Fla.12.1
4Modesto, Calif.10.92
21 more rows
May 10, 2023

What city in the US has the most affordable housing? ›

Here's a look at the most affordable major cities in the country for housing.
  • Kansas City, Missouri.
  • Albuquerque, New Mexico.
  • Louisville, Kentucky.
  • Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
  • Indianapolis, Indiana.
  • Tucson, Arizona.
Jan 12, 2023

What cities have the worst housing crisis in the world? ›

Canadian city Toronto was found to have the highest risk of a housing bubble developing in a recent survey released by investment bank UBS. Other cities at a high risk were Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Munich, Zurich and Vancouver.

Who has the best housing in the world? ›

Austria has the best housing system.

Housing cost in Vienna has remained around 25% of their income and they have largely avoided house price inflation.

What is the least affordable place to live in the US? ›

Top 10 Least Affordable Cities for Home Buyers
  • Santa Monica, California.
  • Glendale, California.
  • Burbank, California.
  • Los Angeles, California.
  • Boulder, Colorado.
  • Pasadena, California.
  • New York, New York.
  • San Francisco, California.
May 24, 2023

What is the world's last affordable city in the US? ›

This may be the world's last 'affordable' city for home buyers — and how the Bay Area compares. May 5, 2022 Updated: May 8, 2022 4:23 p.m. Pittsburgh is classified as affordable because of its much lower home prices than the Bay Area's.

What is the least affordable housing market in 2023? ›

Hong Kong is the least affordable market, with a median multiple of 18.8. Sydney was the second least affordable at 13.3, Vancouver at 12.0, Honolulu at 11.8, San Jose at 11.5, Los Angeles 11.3, Auckland 10.7, Melbourne at 9.9, Toronto at 9.5 and San Diego at 9.4.

Which city has the most unaffordable housing? ›

All the cities on this graphic are classified as severely unaffordable⁠—and, for the 12th year in a row, Hong Kong takes the top spot as the world's most unaffordable housing market, with a score of 23.2.

Why is housing so unaffordable in the US? ›

Strained affordability has seen many homebuilders turn to smaller units. The Pandemic Housing Boom, which pushed national home prices up over 40%, coupled with last year's mortgage rate shock, has resulted in a deterioration of housing affordability.

What is the hottest housing market in the US? ›

"While many parts of the U.S. are experiencing price declines, home values have held steady in the Southeast." Bankrate said Gainesville ranked No. 1 because homes in the area have appreciated 40% in one year, higher than any other location in the analysis.

What is the most likely cause for falling housing prices? ›

Rising interest rates (making mortgage payments more expensive) Economic recession / high unemployment (reducing demand and causing home repossessions).

Where have home prices dropped the most in the US? ›

Leading the nation with the largest drop from the 2022 peak is San Francisco, where home prices have fallen nearly 17%.

Are US house prices dropping? ›

Prices drop in more parts of the U.S. than they have in over a decade. Home prices fell in more parts of the U.S. than they have in over a decade during the first quarter, when nearly a third of metro areas posted annual price declines, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Where do houses sell the fastest? ›

Nashville was the hottest market, with an average listing time of 14 days. Seattle was the second fastest-moving, averaging 17 days. Omaha and Salt Lake City both averaged 18 days, and Cincinnati, Birmingham, Charlotte, Denver, Las Vegas, Manchester and San Francisco were also among the busiest.

What state has the best housing market 2023? ›

Texas replaced California in 2023 as the strongest housing market by state. With an existing home inventory of 83,222, the available houses for sale have more than doubled since last year. It has seen a drop of about 6% in new construction and is now at 248,648 since 2022.

Where is real estate growing the fastest? ›

U.S. metros with the biggest increases in home values in 2022
Metro areaGrowth
1.FarmingtonNew Mexico20.3%
2.North Port-Sarasota-BradentonFlorida19.5%
3.Naples-Immokalee-Marco IslandFlorida17.2%
4.Greensboro-High PointNorth Carolina17%
11 more rows
Feb 13, 2023

Where is the highest cost of living in the world? ›

1. Singapore. Rent in Singapore is $3,016.21 per month, but its cost-of-living is only slightly more than 14% higher than the U.S. average.

What is the most expensive city in the world 2023? ›

New York

What is the most expensive place to live in the world? ›

Singapore and New York City tied for the first rank amongst the world's most expensive cities in 2022, pushing Israel's Tel Aviv from the first place in 2021 to the third place in 2022.

Why are cities more expensive than rural areas? ›

Land is scarce in urban areas, and many people are vying for limited housing; therefore, rent is higher and houses are more expensive. In many rural areas, land is plentiful, so prices tend to be lower.

Why is food so expensive in the city? ›

High Demand And Low Supply For Groceries

It's not just the number of mouths to feed that makes groceries so expensive in California; it's also the fact that many people who live here have more money to spend on food than their counterparts in other states.

What are the hidden costs of living in a city? ›

Those hidden costs are things like property taxes, home insurance, maintenance and repair costs, pest control costs, and the cost of utilities—all of which are also important to consider, and can change drastically depending on where you live.

Why are gas prices higher in some cities? ›

Gasoline that meets California standards is more expensive to produce and that cost is passed onto the consumer. So taxes and fuel blend play a role in the variance from state to state and city to city, but it doesn't entirely explain why gas is priced differently in the same city on opposite sides of the same street.

Is it better to live in a city or a rural area? ›

Rural neighbourhoods are generally safer, with lower crime rates, as well as experiencing fewer problems with traffic and fewer people on public transport.

Why is living in a large city better? ›

No matter what your interests, big cities provide every type of entertainment for residents. While some options can be costly, museums and historic sites are often free or allow entrance for a small donation. The entertainment advantages of living in a big city like Chicago are endless.

Why living in a big city is better than a small city? ›

Bigger cities will always have more businesses opening and expanding, which means there are always ample job opportunities. More job opportunities mean you have a better chance of getting a job within the field you want. If you are thinking about starting your own business, then a big city is also the best choice.

What are the top 3 most expensive cities in the United States to eat in? ›

Most expensive American cities to eat out at a restaurant

According to Numbeo's survey, New York city has the highest restaurant price index. Other cities among the most expensive places to eat out in America are Santa Barbara, San Francisco, Boston, Los Angeles and Honolulu.

What city in the US has the most expensive food? ›

In the last quarter of 2022, two of the ten most expensive cities in the United States for business travel when it comes to food costs were located in California. However, the ranking was topped by Honolulu, which average daily food cost amounted to 135.3 U.S. dollars at that time.

Will food prices go down in 2023? ›

Food prices are projected to rise in 2023, albeit at a slower pace than they did in 2022, according to the USDA.

How to survive in a city without money? ›

How to Move with No Money
  1. 1 Relocate to a town with a low cost of living.
  2. 2 Apply for a driveaway company.
  3. 3 Move to a place with a relocation initiative.
  4. 4 Borrow a friend's car.
  5. 5 Move with a friend.
  6. 6 Lease a sublet.
  7. 7 Couch surf at someone else's place.
  8. 8 Stay at a hostel temporarily.

What is the most expensive city lifestyle in the world? ›

Singapore and New York City tied for the first rank amongst the world's most expensive cities in 2022, pushing Israel's Tel Aviv from the first place in 2021 to the third place in 2022.

Who has the lowest cost of living? ›

Take a look at the 10 cheapest states to live in for 2022.
  1. Mississippi. Coming in as the cheapest state to live in in the United States is Mississippi with a cost of living index score of 83.3. ...
  2. Kansas. ...
  3. Alabama. ...
  4. Oklahoma. ...
  5. Georgia. ...
  6. Tennessee. ...
  7. Missouri. ...
  8. Iowa.
Mar 31, 2023

Why is gas cheaper with cash? ›

If you use cash, you eliminate the credit card surcharge and you end up paying the lower advertised price. Some gas stations are actually required to put the credit card price as the advertised price on their signs. Some also put “Cash” next to the price on the signs to let consumers know that it's the cash price.

What state has the highest gas prices Why? ›

California has the highest price of gas, with an average of $4.87 per gallon of regular gas.

Why is gas cheap in Texas? ›

A gas station located far away from a refinery can expect a hefty markup, he says. “Delivering gas in Texas is obviously cheaper because the refineries are right there,” Molchanov said. “In places where there are no refineries, the fuel needs to be delivered maybe thousands of miles, and that costs more.”

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