3 US states have the most vulnerable housing markets, by far (2024)

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New Jersey, Illinois and California lead the nation with markets where properties are vulnerable amid a housing downturn and possible upcoming recession, according to a new report from real estate analytics company Attom.

Those three states had 33 of the 50 counties nationwide that were most vulnerable to potential declines in the housing market.

The report was based on home affordability, unemployment and measures like property taxes, underwater mortgages and foreclosures through the second quarter. It provides a look at where things stand as the housing market continues to shift.

“The Federal Reserve has promised to be as aggressive as it needs to be in order to get inflation under control, even if its actions lead to a recession,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at Attom. “Given how little progress has been made reducing inflation so far, the Fed’s actions seem more and more likely to drive the economy into a recession, and some housing markets are going to be more vulnerable than others if that happens.”

The report tracks markets where homes are facing possible foreclosure, more homes were underwater and local wages compared to median priced single-family homes.

It provides a look through the end of June, when more markets began seeing listing prices decline. After peaking around May, the housing market began seeing home sales decline, mortgage rates spike and inflation remain near a 40-year high.

Nine of the most at-risk markets were in and around New York City, six were near Chicago and 13 were spread around California away from the coasts, according to the report. Three markets around the Philadelphia metro area were also considered at-risk.

The markets included places like Brooklyn, where the unemployment rate is well above the national average and housing costs exceed 102 percent of local wages, the highest in the nation.

Most of the at-risk markets also had unemployment rates that were at least double the national average of 3.5 percent.

On the other end, 25 of the 50 counties that were considered by Attom to be least vulnerable were in the South. Another 14 of the least vulnerable markets were in the Midwest, five were in the West and six were in the Northeast.

Counties that have at least 500,000 people that were considered least vulnerable included counties that are home to Seattle, Austin, Salt Lake City, Raleigh and Marietta, Georgia.

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3 US states have the most vulnerable housing markets, by far (2024)

FAQs

Which 3 states have the most vulnerable housing markets by far? ›

New Jersey, Illinois and California lead the nation with markets where properties are vulnerable amid a housing downturn and possible upcoming recession, according to a new report from real estate analytics company Attom.

What housing markets are most at risk? ›

The report shows that inland California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Delaware continued to have some of the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with the biggest clusters in the New York City and Chicago metropolitan areas. Southern and midwestern states remained less exposed.

Which state in the US has the best housing market? ›

The combination of record-fast home value growth to start the year and a record number of newly built homes increased the total market value of residential real estate in the U.S. in 2022, despite price drops to end the year. California remains untouchable on its perch as the most valuable housing market in the country ...

What states have a stable housing market? ›

At the state level, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Alaska have the most stable housing markets, as measured by the probability that a buyer purchasing a home at any point between 2000 and present would have experienced a greater-than-5% price drop following the purchase.

What states are in a housing crisis? ›

15 States That Could Be Heading for a Housing Crisis
  • New Mexico. % of Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.2% ...
  • New Jersey. % of Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0% ...
  • Georgia. % of Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.3% ...
  • Maryland. % of Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.1% ...
  • Florida. ...
  • Alabama. ...
  • Indiana. ...
  • Illinois.
7 days ago

Where is the lowest housing market in the US? ›

1. West Virginia. With a Zillow Home Value Index of $146,578, West Virginia is the most affordable state to buy a house in the US. Despite its low home prices, the state boasts natural beauty and outdoor recreation opportunities, making it an attractive option for homebuyers on a budget.

What states have the biggest housing shortages? ›

  • California, 978,000.
  • Texas, 322,000.
  • Florida, 289,000.
  • New York, 234,000.
  • Washington, 140,000.
  • New Jersey, 137,000.
  • Colorado, 127,000.
  • Arizona, 123,000.
Jul 21, 2022

What cities have the worst housing crisis? ›

The 10 Markets With the Greatest Need for New Housing
RankMarketNew Units Needed/Year
1New York City10,000
2Dallas – Fort Worth19,000
3Houston15,000
4Los Angeles6,000
6 more rows
Feb 24, 2023

Where is the housing market falling the fastest? ›

1. Nevada
  • Typical home price in November 2022: $438,170.
  • Decline in value between June and November 2022: -4.8%
  • Difference between the average Nevada home and national average: +22%
  • Difference in insurance costs between 2021 and 2022: +24%
Mar 15, 2023

What state has the biggest real estate boom? ›

The combination of record-fast home value growth to start the year and a record number of newly built homes increased the total market value of residential real estate in the U.S. in 2022, despite price drops to end the year. California remains untouchable on its perch as the most valuable housing market in the country ...

Where is the hottest housing market in the US? ›

Main Findings
RankMSAInventory Rank
1Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.6
2Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.14
3Austin-Round Rock, Texas4
4Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.30
21 more rows
Apr 27, 2023

What state has the most affordable housing right now? ›

Cheapest States To Buy A House
RankStateQ4 2021 All-Transactions House Price Index
1Tennessee310.42
2Illinois280.26
3Oklahoma407.56
4Ohio543.83
16 more rows
May 1, 2023

Where is the fastest growing housing market in the US? ›

U.S. metros with the biggest increases in home values in 2022
  • FarmingtonNew Mexico. 20.3% ...
  • North Port-Sarasota-BradentonFlorida. 19.5% ...
  • Naples-Immokalee-Marco IslandFlorida. 17.2% ...
  • Greensboro-High PointNorth Carolina. 17% ...
  • Myrtle Beach-ConwayS.Carolina/N.Carolina. ...
  • Oshkosh-NeenahWisconsin. ...
  • Winston-SalemNorth Carolina. ...
  • El PasoTexas.
Feb 13, 2023

Where are home prices most stable? ›

20 Best Housing Markets for Growth and Stability
Stability
RankMetro AreaHistoric Rate of Home Value Loss1
1Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX2.00%
2Midland, TX0.00%
3Boulder, CO1.00%
17 more rows
Mar 27, 2023

What state has the most government housing? ›

Mississippi has the largest HUD households with an average 2.4 residents per housing unit. New Hampshire has the smallest households with an average 1.7 residents. Utah has the smallest number of HUD residents per capita at 1.12%.

What state has the biggest housing crisis? ›

California's chronic shortage of housing manifests itself in sky-high housing costs, the nation's worst poverty and its highest level of homelessness.

Which US cities are in a housing bubble? ›

In the U.S., Miami was the city with the highest risk of a housing bubble and reported the highest house prices and rental growth of all the cities in the study. For the rest of the country, the Magic City was followed by Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, and New York.

How bad is the US housing shortage? ›

According to a report from the National Multifamily Housing Council, the U.S. will be 4.3 million apartments short of meeting the demand for housing by 2035.

What is the cheapest and safest state to live in? ›

Take a look at the 10 cheapest states to live in for 2022.
  1. Mississippi. Coming in as the cheapest state to live in in the United States is Mississippi with a cost of living index score of 83.3. ...
  2. Kansas. ...
  3. Alabama. ...
  4. Oklahoma. ...
  5. Georgia. ...
  6. Tennessee. ...
  7. Missouri. ...
  8. Iowa.
Mar 31, 2023

What is the cheapest state in the US? ›

The cheapest states to live in are Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, West Virginia, and Tennessee. Mississippi is the cheapest state to live in in the US, with a cost of living index of 85. The second cheapest state to live in is Oklahoma, with a cost of living index of 85.8.

Where have home prices dropped the most in the US? ›

Leading the nation with the largest drop from the 2022 peak is San Francisco, where home prices have fallen nearly 17%.

What state has the best housing market 2023? ›

Texas replaced California in 2023 as the strongest housing market by state. With an existing home inventory of 83,222, the available houses for sale have more than doubled since last year. It has seen a drop of about 6% in new construction and is now at 248,648 since 2022.

What is the root cause of the US housing shortage? ›

The housing market's crash during the Great Recession led the industry to pull back on construction for many years, and materials and labor shortages during the height of the pandemic fueled another slowdown.

Why California has a housing crisis? ›

The imbalance between supply and demand; resulted from of strong economic growth creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs (which increases demand for housing) and the insufficient construction of new housing units to provide enough supply to meet the demand.

What city has the highest risk of housing bubble? ›

The city of Toronto has the highest risk of a housing bubble, according to a recent survey released by investment bank UBS. Other cities at a high risk include Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Munich, Zurich and Vancouver.

Which city has the most unaffordable housing? ›

All the cities on this graphic are classified as severely unaffordable⁠—and, for the 12th year in a row, Hong Kong takes the top spot as the world's most unaffordable housing market, with a score of 23.2.

What 4 cities will suffer a 2008 crash? ›

San Jose, California; San Diego, California; Austin, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona, will likely see noticeable increases before drastic decreases of more than 25%.

What four cities will have big home declines? ›

In four cities in particular, supply levels are above pre-pandemic levels, the bank said, which will result in greater price declines than the national average. They include: Phoenix, Arizona; San Francisco, California; Seattle, Washington; and Austin, Texas.

What four cities will have big home prices decline? ›

By the fourth quarter of 2024, the firm expects home prices to fall 19% in Austin, 16% in Phoenix, 15% in San Francisco, and 12% in Seattle.

Will 2023 be a good time to buy a house? ›

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

What is the hottest real estate in the USA? ›

That's the takeaway from a new Bankrate analysis of nearly 200 housing markets around the country. The personal finance website ranked the top most attractive and active housing markets and found that Gainesville, Georgia, was No. 1.

What state sells the most expensive houses? ›

Top 10 Most Expensive States to Buy a House in the US
  • Hawaii. Hawaii is known for its beautiful beaches, warm climate, and breathtaking scenery. ...
  • 2. California. ...
  • District of Columbia. ...
  • Washington. ...
  • Massachusetts. ...
  • Colorado. ...
  • Utah. ...
  • Oregon.
Apr 13, 2023

What is the hottest market in 2023? ›

Charlotte, a 211-mile drive from the sands of the Atlantic Ocean, nabbed the top spot on our list of the hottest housing markets for 2023 due to its forecasted annual home price growth.

Where is the slowest real estate market? ›

The Bay Area has the worst performing housing market in the nation, according to a new report.

Where real estate prices are cooling the fastest in the US? ›

Home prices in some US cities are finally cooling, with Seattle's housing market slowing faster than any other in the country. The 10 fastest-cooling markets are almost entirely in the West, with Seattle, Las Vegas, and the three California cities of San Jose, San Diego and Sacramento leading the way.

What are the hottest real estate cities in the US? ›

Charlotte is expected to be the hottest housing market in 2023, followed by Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Nashville. Zillow's list is based on analyses of forecasted home value growth, recent housing market activity, and expected changes in the labor market, home construction, and homeowner households.

What state has the cheapest houses 2023? ›

Mississippi

Mississippi, “The Magnolia State,” is the birthplace of Elvis Presley and the delta blues. It's also the cheapest state to buy a house in 2023. As of 2020, the total state population was 2,961,279, making it the 32nd most populated state. The most populated city is Jackson, with 153,701 residents.

What are the cheapest blue states? ›

Regarding affordability, the report indicates that Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Jersey are the most affordable states with Arizona, Nevada, and Florida being the least affordable.

Who owns the most houses in the US? ›

John Malone is the largest private landowner in the United States. Malone made his fortune as a media tycoon, building the company Tele-Communications, Inc, or TCI, and acting as its CEO before selling it to AT&T for $50 billion in 1999.

What state sells houses the fastest? ›

California leads the nation for fastest home sales, with the average property snapped up in just 52 days. Compare that to Vermont, the slowest of all 50 states, where it takes nearly half a year — 161 days on average — just to lock down a buyer.

Where is the hottest real estate market in the world? ›

Back in 2020, Hong Kong was crowned the “world's most expensive real-estate market” by CBRE Global Living, calculating the average property prices to be in the range of $1.25 million.

Is the housing market in the US slowing down? ›

After rising sharply for years, home prices decreased year-over-year in February 2023 for the first time in more than a decade — and continued to drop in March and April. The decrease is relatively modest, though: While the heated market has cooled down, it's not likely to experience a sharp drop.

Where are home prices most inflated? ›

The most overvalued markets to rent a home are mostly found in California and Florida. You'll pay the most to buy a median-price home versus renting a home in California, as well as MSAs in Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Idaho and Utah.

Where have house prices risen the least? ›

These are the least overvalued housing markets in the U.S., according to Moody's Analytics:
  • Maryland (-5.2 percent as of September 30)
  • Illinois (1.7 percent as of September 30)
  • New York (6.0 percent as of September 30)
  • California (6.3 percent as of September 30)
  • Alaska (6.4 percent as of September 30)
Nov 24, 2022

What state is the easiest to get low income housing? ›

The Top Ten Best States for Low-Income Housing in 2017:
  • Nebraska.
  • North Dakota. ...
  • Vermont. ...
  • Iowa. ...
  • New Hampshire. Affordable housing complexes per capita: 2. ...
  • Missouri. Affordable housing complexes per capita: 3. ...
  • Minnesota. Affordable housing complexes per capita: 2. ...
  • Kansas. Affordable housing complexes per capita: 6. ...

Which state do people rent most? ›

The most worrying one is that 3.2 million tenants in California are rent burdened, which means people are spending 30 percent or more of their income on housing costs. No other state in the nation has more rent-burdened residents. In addition, the O.C.

What state had the least affordable housing? ›

Hawaii and California are the LEAST affordable places to live in the U.S as incomes fail to keep up with soaring property prices.

What are the most undervalued housing markets in the US? ›

What are the most undervalued housing markets in the US in 2023?
Omaha, NE22.3%
San Francisco Bay Area, CA28.6%
Philadelphia, PA28.7%
Chicago, IL29.4%
Baltimore, MD29.5%
15 more rows
Feb 9, 2023

Who are most affected by affordable housing? ›

About six-in-ten U.S. adults living in urban areas (63%) say that the availability of affordable housing in their community is a major problem, compared with 46% of suburban residents and 40% of those living in rural areas.

What is the hottest housing market in the US? ›

"While many parts of the U.S. are experiencing price declines, home values have held steady in the Southeast." Bankrate said Gainesville ranked No. 1 because homes in the area have appreciated 40% in one year, higher than any other location in the analysis.

Where are the most overvalued housing markets in the country? ›

  • Charlotte, North Carolina.
  • Memphis, Tennessee. ...
  • Lakeland, Florida. ...
  • Palm Bay, Florida. Average listing price: $345,520. ...
  • Detroit. Average listing price: $226,101. ...
  • Deltona, Florida. Average listing price: $334,978. ...
  • Tampa, Florida. Average listing price: $361,065. ...
  • Nashville, Tennessee. Average listing price: $420,932. ...
7 days ago

What are the most overrated real estate markets? ›

The most overvalued markets to purchase a home tend to be in California, but also include Seattle, Washington, and “Zoom towns” such as Boise, Idaho, and Greeley, Colorado. The most overvalued markets to rent a home are mostly found in California and Florida.

What state has the worst housing shortage? ›

Story at a glance

California currently has the largest deficit of homes at 980,000.

Who is affected most by the housing crisis? ›

The housing crisis in California affects residents of all races and ethnicities, but the lack of affordable housing is particularly acute for African Americans and Latinos.

What is the affordable housing crisis in the US? ›

There is a shortage of 7.3 million affordable and available rental homes for renters with extremely low incomes in the US, up 8 percent from 6.8 million in 2019. The lack of housing options for renters with extremely low incomes are driving the overall affordable housing shortage across the country.

Why does California have a housing crisis? ›

The imbalance between supply and demand; resulted from of strong economic growth creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs (which increases demand for housing) and the insufficient construction of new housing units to provide enough supply to meet the demand.

What are the top US cities housing bubble? ›

In the U.S., Miami was the city with the highest risk of a housing bubble and reported the highest house prices and rental growth of all the cities in the study. For the rest of the country, the Magic City was followed by Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, and New York.

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