Why China and Japan are praying the US won't default | CNN Business (2024)

Why China and Japan are praying the US won't default | CNN Business (1)

The US is now 9 days away from potentially defaulting on its debt

05:09 - Source: CNN

Hong Kong CNN

As the clock ticks down toward an unprecedented US debt default, the world’s second- and third-biggest economies are watching in fear.

China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. Together they own $2 trillion — more than a quarter — of the $7.6 trillion in US Treasury securities held by foreign countries.

Beijing started to ramp up buying of US Treasuries in 2000, when the United States effectively endorsed China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, triggering an export boom. That generated vast amounts of dollars for China and it needed a safe place to stash them.

US Treasury bonds are widely regarded as one of the safest investments on Earth, and China’s holdings of US government debt ballooned from $101 billion to peak at $1.3 trillion in 2013.

China was the largest foreign creditor to the United States for more than a decade. But an escalation of tensions with the Trump administration in 2019 saw Beijing pare back its holdings, and Japan surpassed China as the top creditor that year.

Tokyo now holds $1.1 trillion, to China’s $870 billion, and that heavy exposure means both countries are vulnerable to a potential crash in the value of US Treasuries if the doomsday scenario for Washington were to unfold.

The US Treasury building in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, March 13, 2023. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images America's borrowing is its superpower. A default would tarnish that

“Japan and China’s large Treasury holdings could hurt them if the value of Treasuries plummets,” said Josh Lipsky and Phillip Meng, analysts from the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.

The falling value of Treasuries would lead to a drop in Japan and China’s foreign reserves. That means they would have less money available to pay for essential imports, service their own foreign debts, or prop up their national currencies.

Nevertheless, the “real risk” comes from the global economic fallout and likely US recession that could follow from a default, they said.

“That is a serious concern for all countries but poses a particular risk to China’s fragile economic recovery,” Lipsky and Meng said.

After an initial burst in activity following the abrupt lifting of pandemic restrictions late last year, China’s economy is now sputtering as consumption, investments, and industrial output all show signs of slowing. Deflationary pressure has worsened as consumer prices barely moved during the past few months. Another major concern is the soaring unemployment rate for young people, which hit a record level of 20.4% in April.

Japan’s economy, meanwhile, is just showing signs of emerging from stagnation and deflation, which have haunted the country for decades.

Devastating impact

Even if the US government runs out of money and extraordinary measures to pay all its bills — a scenario that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said could happen as early as June 1 — the likelihood of a US default may still be low.

Some US lawmakers have proposed prioritizing the payment of interest on bonds to the biggest bondholders.

This would be done at the expense of other obligations, such as payment of government pensions and salaries to government employees, but would stave off major debt defaults to the likes of Japan and China, said Alex Capri, senior lecturer at NUS Business School.

A shop owner shows grilled meat during a barbecue festival on April 29, 2023 in Zibo, Shandong Province of China. The city Zibo became a tourism hot spot after videos of its barbecue went viral online. VCG/Getty Images A barbecue frenzy is gripping China. Can street food revive the economy?

And without a clear alternative, in response to rising market volatility investors could swap shorter term bonds for longer term debt. That could benefit China and Japan, because their holdings are concentrated in longer-term US Treasuries, according to Lipsky and Meng from the Atlantic Council.

That said, broader financial contagion and economic recession are a much bigger threat.

“A debt default in the US would mean a fall in US Treasury prices, a rise in interest rates, a fall in the value of the dollar, and increased volatility,” said Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“It would also likely be accompanied by a fall in the US stock market, increased stress on the US banking sector, and increased stress on the real estate sector.”

That could lead the interconnected global economy and financial markets to stumble, too.

China and Japan are dependent on the world’s biggest economy to support companies and jobs at home. The export sector is especially crucial to China, as other pillars of the economy — such as real estate — have faltered. Exports generate a fifth of China’s GDP and provide jobs for around 180 million people.

Despite rising geopolitical tension, the United States remains China’s single largest trading partner. It’s also the second largest for Japan. In 2022, US-China trade hit a record high of $691 billion. Japan’s exports to America increased by 10% in 2022.

“As the US economy slowed, the impact would be transmitted through trade, depressing Chinese exports to the US, for example, and contributing to a global slowdown,” said Noland.

Deep concerns

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concerns last Friday, warning that a US debt default would cause turmoil in various markets and have serious consequences for the global economy.

“The Bank of Japan will strive to maintain market stability based on its pledge to respond flexibly with an eye on economic, price and financial developments,” he told parliament, according to Reuters.

People pass an electronic board showing the closing numbers on the Tokyo Stock Exchange along a street in Tokyo on May 22, 2023. Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images Japan's long-suffering stock market is back. This boom may have 'staying power'

Beijing, so far, has been relatively quiet on the matter. The foreign ministry commented Tuesday that it hopes the United States will “adopt responsible fiscal and monetary policies” and “refrain from passing on risks” to the world.

Chinese state news agency Xinhua published a column earlier this month, highlighting the “symbiotic relationship” the countries have in the US bond market.

“If the United States defaults on its debt, it will not only discredit the United States, but also bring real financial losses to China,” it said.

There’s nothing much Tokyo or Beijing can do, other than wait and hope for the best.

Hastily dumping US debt would be “self-defeating,” Capri said, as it would significantly drive up the value of the Japanese yen or the Chinese yuan against the dollar, causing the cost of their exports to “go through the roof.”

Longer-term benefits?

In the longer term, some analysts say a potential US default could push China to accelerate its drive to create a global financial system that is less dependent on the dollar.

The Chinese government has already struck a series of deals with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and France to increase the use of yuan in international trade and investment. A Russian lawmaker said last year the BRICS countries, namely China, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa, are exploring the creation of a common currency for cross-border trade.

“This will certainly serve as a catalyst for China to continue to push the internationalization of the yuan, and for Beijing to double down on its efforts to bring its trading partners into the newly announced ‘BRICs Currency’ initiative,” Capri said.

However, China faces some serious obstacles, such as controls it applies to how much money can flow in and out of its economy. Analysts say Beijing has shown little willingness to fully integrate with global financial markets.

“A seriouspush for de-dollarization would see … much more volatile yuan trading,” said Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Recent data from international payments system SWIFT showed that the yuan’s share of global trade financing was 4.5% in March, while the dollar accounted for 83.7%.

“There is still a long way to go before a credible alternative to the US dollar can emerge,” Lipsky and Meng said.

Why China and Japan are praying the US won't default | CNN Business (2024)

FAQs

What country holds the most U.S. debt? ›

According to usafacts.org, as of January 2023, Japan owned $1.1 trillion in US Treasuries, making it the largest foreign holder of the national debt. The second-largest holder is China, which owned $859 billion of US debt.

What happens if the US goes into default? ›

A default could shatter the $24 trillion market for Treasury debt, cause financial markets to freeze up and ignite an international crisis.

How likely is the US to default? ›

There's just a 2% possibility the U.S. government will default on its loans, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank, despite days of stalled-out negotiations.

Is America in debt to China? ›

China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. Together they own $2 trillion — more than a quarter — of the $7.6 trillion in US Treasury securities held by foreign countries.

What country is #1 in debt? ›

Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP.

Could the US ever get out of debt? ›

Eliminating the U.S. government's debt is a Herculean task that could take decades. In addition to obvious steps, such as hiking taxes and slashing spending, the government could take a number of other approaches, some of them unorthodox and even controversial. Below are some of these options.

What jobs would be lost if U.S. defaults on debt? ›

The initial jobs losses that result from a potential debt ceiling breach will center in the construction and manufacturing sectors, Michelle Holder, a labor economist at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, told ABC News.

Who is United States in debt with? ›

Investors in Japan and China hold significant shares of U.S. public debt. Together, as of September 2022, they accounted for nearly $2 trillion, or about 8 percent of DHBP. While China's holdings of U.S. debt have declined over the past decade, Japan has slightly increased their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.

How do you prepare for a U.S. default? ›

Experts share how to prepare for possible US debt default
  1. Build an emergency fund. ...
  2. Reduce debt. ...
  3. Wait to buy a home. ...
  4. Diversify your investments but don't overdo it. ...
  5. Review and adjust financial plans.
May 25, 2023

Why does the US borrow money from China? ›

China's demand for Treasurys helps keep U.S. interest rates low. It allows the U.S. Treasury to borrow more at low rates. Congress can then increase the federal spending that spurs U.S. economic growth.

Why is the US in so much debt? ›

Flashpoints that greatly contributed to the debt over the past 50 years include the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic -- the latter two prompting sweeping stimulus measures from Congress that cost trillions of dollars.

What happens if the debt ceiling is reached? ›

Potential repercussions of reaching the ceiling include a downgrade by credit rating agencies, increased borrowing costs for businesses and homeowners alike, and a dropoff in consumer confidence that could shock the United States' financial market and tip its economy—and the world's—into immediate recession.

Does any country owe the US money? ›

For a long time, the biggest holder of U.S. debt was China. But did you know that in late 2016, Japan overtook China as the biggest foreign holder of U.S. debt? Japan and China are, by far, the two biggest holders of U.S. debt – but the top five is filled with countries that you might not expect.

Which country owes the most money to China? ›

At the end of 2021, of the 98 countries for whom data was available, Pakistan ($27.4 billion of external debt to China), Angola (22.0 billion), Ethiopia (7.4 billion), Kenya (7.4 billion) and Sri Lanka (7.2 billion) held the biggest debts to China.

How much money do US owe China? ›

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt
RankCountryU.S. Treasury Holdings
1🇯🇵 Japan$1,076B
2🇨🇳 China$867B
3🇬🇧 United Kingdom$655B
4🇧🇪 Belgium$354B
6 more rows
Mar 24, 2023

What country is in zero debt? ›

The 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
CharacteristicNational debt in relation to GDP
Macao SAR0%
Brunei Darussalam2.06%
Kuwait2.92%
Hong Kong SAR4.26%
9 more rows
May 11, 2023

What country has the best economy? ›

United States

Why is Japan in so much debt? ›

A flurry of big spending packages and ballooning social welfare costs for a rapidly ageing population have left Japan with a debt pile 263% the size of its economy - double the ratio for the United States and the highest among major economies.

What happens if US national debt gets too high? ›

A nation saddled with debt will have less to invest in its own future. Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.

What happens if the US goes over the debt limit? ›

Failing to increase the debt limit would have catastrophic economic consequences. It would cause the government to default on its legal obligations – an unprecedented event in American history.

When was the last time the US was not in debt? ›

When was the last time the U.S. was debt free? January 1835 was the first and only time all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off, according to the Treasury Department.

Why can't the US make money to pay off debt? ›

The Fed tries to influence the supply of money in the economy to promote noninflationary growth. Unless there is an increase in economic activity commensurate with the amount of money that is created, printing money to pay off the debt would make inflation worse.

What states are not in debt? ›

States With the Least Debt in 2020

Mountain states, such as Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming made the top-10 list, as did upper Midwest states like Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Alaska takes the No. 1 spot, with a tiny debt ratio of only 14.2%.

What would happen if everyone paid off their debt? ›

Answer and Explanation: If everyone stopped getting in debt and paid off all their credit cards, saved for everything and spent what they earned this will increase the savings excessively which will decrease the circulation of money in the economy.

Where does the US borrow money from? ›

The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Offered in a wide range of maturities.

How much is the United States worth? ›

For the fourth quarter of 2019, total wealth in the U.S. was $111.04 trillion.

Does China have more debt than the US? ›

Therefore, China's national debt has surged almost three times that of the United States in the past 12 months. In the third spot, Japan has a national debt of $13.36 trillion, indicating a drop of $1.49 trillion YoY.

How can I protect my money if US defaults on debt? ›

That means tamping down on excess spending, making a budget, and shoring up emergency savings to cover at least three months of living expenses. Since a debt default would likely send interest rates soaring, any credit card debt you're saddled with may soon cost you more.

Can I argue a default? ›

You can ask for an inaccurate default record to be updated or removed by raising a credit report dispute. Here's how to do this: Get your credit report to see the default entry. Get in touch to tell us how and why it should be changed.

What are the main reasons of default? ›

Countries defaulting on their debts is rare. But it does happen. The most common causes of sovereign defaults include economic stagnation, political instability, and financial mismanagement.

How much does Russia owe the US? ›

How much does Russia owe? About $40 billion US in foreign bonds, about half of that to foreigners. Before the start of the war, Russia had around $640 billion US in foreign currency and gold reserves, much of which was held overseas and is now frozen.

What happens if China dumps dollar? ›

If China (or any other nation having a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

What would happen if China called in the US debt? ›

The biggest effect of a broad scale dump of US Treasuries by China would be that China would actually export fewer goods to the United States. Overall, foreign countries each make up a relatively small proportion of U.S. debt-holders.

How many Americans are debt free? ›

Fewer than one quarter of American households live debt-free.

When was the last debt ceiling crisis? ›

The debt ceiling had been increased multiple times since the 2013 debt ceiling standoff, all without budgetary preconditions attached; the most recent increase was in December 2021.

Did the Senate pass the debt ceiling? ›

After weeks of political impasse, tense negotiations and mounting economic anxiety, the Senate gave final approval on Thursday night to bipartisan legislation suspending the debt limit and imposing new spending caps, sending it to President Biden and ending the possibility of a calamitous government default.

How much debt is the US in 2023? ›

At the end of FY 2023 federal debt is “guesstimated” to amount to $32.69 trillion. Thus far, on 2023-06-08, the federal debt is $31.92 trillion. See Coronavirus Update page. Click for federal debt from 1960 to present.

How much money does Mexico owe the US? ›

Mexico External Debt 1970-2023
Mexico External Debt - Historical Data
YearCurrent US $Annual % Change
2020$605,051,650,395-0.84%
2019$610,189,277,5040.62%
2018$606,453,577,0604.90%
49 more rows

Which two countries does the US owe the most? ›

Foreign holders of United States treasury debt

Of the total 7.4 trillion held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 859.4 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities.

Does France owe the US money? ›

The French “Commercial” Debt

The total “commercial” debt owed by France to the United States was given by M. Clémentel as $609,357,000.

Who does Mexico owe money to? ›

dynamic and g rowing Mexico will be able THE CURRENT DILEMMA Of Mexico's $98 billion foreign debt, nearly $75 billion is owed to commercial banks, with U.S. banks holding about one-third of the IOUs. The rest is owed to other banks worldwide.

Who is indebted to China? ›

An Associated Press analysis of a dozen countries most indebted to China — including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia — found paying back that debt is consuming an ever-greater amount of the tax revenue needed to keep schools open, provide electricity and pay for food and fuel.

Which country lends the most money? ›

This has turned China into the world's largest official creditor — surpassing traditional, official lenders such as the World Bank, the IMF, or all OECD creditor governments combined. Despite the large size of China's overseas lending boom, no official data exists on the resulting debt flows and stocks.

Who owes the US the most money? ›

Which countries hold the most US debt? Over the past 20 years, Japan and China have owned more US Treasuries than any other foreign nation.

Which country holds the most U.S. debt? ›

According to usafacts.org, as of January 2023, Japan owned $1.1 trillion in US Treasuries, making it the largest foreign holder of the national debt. The second-largest holder is China, which owned $859 billion of US debt.

How much money does the US have in total? ›

As of September 30, 2022: More than three-fourths of the federal government's total assets ($5.0 trillion) consist of: 1) $877.8 billion in cash and monetary assets; 2) $406.9 billion in inventory and related property; 3) $1.4 trillion in net loans receivable (primarily student loans); and 4) $1.2 trillion in net PP&E.

Is the US debt the highest in the world? ›

The United States has the world's highest national debt at $31.4 trillion. Global debt currently stands at $305 trillion, $45 trillion higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) – a global association of the financial industry.

Why does the US owe Japan so much money? ›

Because Japan exports so many goods to the U.S. and other nations, the country frequently develops an account surplus in dollars - the currency the U.S. and other countries give Japan in exchange for their products.

Why does China buy U.S. debt? ›

Key Takeaways. China invests heavily in U.S. Treasury bonds to keep its export prices lower. China focuses on export-led growth to help generate jobs. To keep its export prices low, China must keep its currency—the renminbi (RMB)—low compared to the U.S. dollar.

How long will it take to pay off the US national debt? ›

To pay back one million dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 11.5 days. To pay back one billion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 32 years. To pay back one trillion dollars, at a rate of one dollar per second, would take you 31,688 years.

What country is not in debt? ›

The 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2022 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)
CharacteristicNational debt in relation to GDP
Macao SAR0%
Brunei Darussalam2.06%
Kuwait2.92%
Hong Kong SAR4.26%
9 more rows
May 11, 2023

Is there any country not in debt? ›

Learning about Countries and Their Debt

The best example can be taken from Hong Kong (it is a one of the debt free countries), whose economy has the least debt to GDP ratio. It is an almost debt free country. It has a well-regulated financial system and large foreign reserves.

Who owes the United States money? ›

Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.

What happens if China dumps US bonds? ›

If the China bloc disposes of net foreign assets amounting to more than 20% of GDP by offloading US bloc bonds over 10 years, the IMF finds that the China bloc's domestic interest rates would fall by four basis points.

Who owes China the most money? ›

At the end of 2021, of the 98 countries for whom data was available, Pakistan ($27.4 billion of external debt to China), Angola (22.0 billion), Ethiopia (7.4 billion), Kenya (7.4 billion) and Sri Lanka (7.2 billion) held the biggest debts to China.

Who owns the most Chinese debt? ›

Who owns China debt? Most of China's local government debt, one of the most regular issuers of domestic debt, is held by state-owned or state-controlled financial institutions. For decades, China's local governments have relied on off balance sheet borrowing through local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).

What does China own in the US? ›

China owns and controls almost 192,000 acres of farmland right here in the United States. To be clear, it's not a huge percentage of our total farm acreage by any stretch. According to the FDA, there are more than 35 million acres of farmland in the U.S. which are owned by foreign investors.

What happens if the US can't pay its national debt? ›

A default on U.S. debt could trigger a worldwide recession and upend stock markets in addition to wreaking havoc in Americans' financial lives.

Does debt go away after 7 years in USA? ›

A debt doesn't generally expire or disappear until its paid, but in many states, there may be a time limit on how long creditors or debt collectors can use legal action to collect a debt.

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