What is the Federal Debt?
Gross Federal Debt: That’s the gross amount of debt outstanding issued by the US Treasury. “Debt held by the public” and “debt held by federal government accounts” here are components of Gross Federal Debt.
At the end of FY 2023 the federal debt was $33.17 trillion.
At the end of FY 2024 federal debt is “guesstimated” to amount to $34.81 trillion.Thus far, on 2023-12-15, the federal debt is $33.88 trillion.See Coronavirus Update page.
Here is the gross federal debt by year for the last decade:
| Federal Debt in trillions | |||||||||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| $16.72 | $17.79 | $18.12 | $19.54 | $20.21 | $21.46 | $22.67 | $26.9 | $28.39 | $30.84 | $33.17 | |
Click for federal debt from 1960 to present.
Also, see National Debt,State Debt,Local Debt,
Agency Debt, andFederal Deficit.
Today the Federal Debt is about $33,883,845,835,556.04.
The amount is the gross outstanding debt issued by theUnited States Department of the Treasury since 1790 and reported here.
But,it doesn’t include state and local debt.
And,it doesn’t include so-called“agency debt.”
And,it doesn’t include the so-called unfundedliabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.
Federal Debt per person is about $103,843.
Federal
Debt
Federal Debt increased sharply in response to the Great Recession of 2006-08, with debt rising from $9 trillion in 2007 to $15 trillion in 2011. Federal debt continues to increase about $1 trillion per year.
At the end of FY2023 federal debt was$33.17 trillion.
Viewed as percent of GDP the increase in federal debt is not so startling. But federal debthas still increased from 60 percent of GDP to over 100 percent of GDP in less than ten years, andhas remained at about 100 percent of GDP since 2012.
At the end of FY2023 the federal debt was126.0 percent of GDP.
Chart D.13f: Federal Debt since 1900
Federal debt began the 20th century at less than 10 percent of GDP. It jerked above 30 percent as a result of World War I and then declined in the 1920s to 16.3 percent by 1929. Federal debt started to increase after the Crash of 1929, and rose above40 percent in the depths of the Great Depression.
Federal debt exploded during World War II to over 120 percent of GDP, and then began a decline thatbottomed out at 32 percent of GDP in 1974. Federal debt almost doubled in the 1980s, reaching 60 percent of GDP in 1990 andpeaking at 66 percent of GDP in 1996, before declining to 56 percent in 2001. Federal debt started increasing againin the 2000s, reaching 70 percent of GDP in 2008. Then it exploded in the aftermath of the Crash of 2008, reaching 102 percentof GDP in 2011.
Federal debt has breached 100 percent of GDP twice since 1900: during World War IIand in the aftermath of the Crash of 2008.
Chart D.14f: Federal Interest since 1900
Federal interest payments began the 20th century at less than 0.2 percent of GDP. But the debt incurred in World War One caused the debt to explode to over 1.3 percent of GDP in 1921,and debt interest cost about one percent of GDP through the middle of World War II.Interest expense peaked at 1.7 percent of GDP in 1946 and settled down to about 1.1 to 1.2 percent ofGDP until the 1970s.
Federal Interest payments cost 1.39 percent of GDP in 1974 and continued climbing, as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates,reaching 1.51 percent of GDP in 1978, 2.14 percent of GDP in 1981 before peaking at 3.16 percent of GDP in 1991.With a recession in 1990 and spending cuts in the 1990s, interest expense declined to 1.31 percent of GDP by 2004. Then it increased briefly before credit was relaxed in the Great Recession of 2008-09.Interest expense held steady at about 1.3 percent of GDP for the mid 2010s, rising to 1.75 percent GDPin 2019 before declining modestly during the COVID pandemic of 2020-2021.
Chart D.15f: Federal Debt since the Founding
The United States federal government began with a substantial debt, the cost of the Revolutionary War. Under Alexander Hamilton’s funding system the debt was paid off by 1840. Government debt has typically peaked after wars. It breached 30 percent of GDP after the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War I. It breached 100 percent of GDP in World War II. Government debt also breached 100 percent of GDP in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008.
Chart D.16f: Federal Debt Gross and Net
The US federal government differentiates between Gross Debt issued by the US Treasury and Net Debt held by the public. The numbers on Gross Debt are published by the US Treasury here.
Numbers on various categories of federal debt, including Gross Debt, debt held by federal government accounts, debt held by the public, and debt held by the Federal Reserve System, are published every year by the Office of Management and Budget in the Federal Budget in the Historical Tables as Table 7.1 – Federal Debt at the End of the Year. The table starts in 1940. You can find the latest Table 7.1 in here.
The chart above shows three categories of federal debt.
1. Monetized debt (blue), i.e., federal debt bought by the Federal Reserve System
2. Debt held by the federal government (red) e.g., as IOUs for Social Security
3. Other debt (green), i.e., debt in public hands, including foreign governments.
Chart D.17f: CBO Forecast for
Federal Publicly Held Debt
According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the federal public-held debt will grow from 102 percent of GDP in 2021 to 195 percent of GDP by 2050.
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Debt Data Sources
Debt data is from official government sources.
- Federal debt data since 1962 comes from the president’s budget.
- Federal debt for 1940-1961 comes from the president’s budget.
- Federal debt for 1914-1939 comes from theUS Treasuryand St. Louis Fed.
- Federal debt before 1914 comes from theUS Treasury
- All other debt data comes from the US Census Bureau.
Gross Domestic Product data comes fromUS Bureau of Economic Analysis andmeasuringworth.com.
Detailed table of debt data sources here.
Federal debt data begins in 1792.
State and local debt data begins in 1820.
State and local debt data for individual states begins in 1957.
I am an expert in economics and public finance, possessing an in-depth understanding of the complexities surrounding the U.S. federal debt. My expertise is substantiated by a comprehensive knowledge of economic indicators, historical trends, and data sources related to government debt.
Now, let's delve into the concepts discussed in the provided article:
Gross Federal Debt:
-
Definition: Gross Federal Debt refers to the total amount of debt outstanding issued by the U.S. Treasury.
-
Components:
- Debt Held by the Public: Debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, and foreign entities.
- Debt Held by Federal Government Accounts: Debt held by various federal government agencies.
-
Figures:
- At the end of FY 2023, the federal debt was $33.17 trillion.
- Estimated to be $34.81 trillion at the end of FY 2024.
- As of 2023-12-15, the federal debt stands at $33.88 trillion.
Historical Trends:
-
Decade Overview (2013-2023):
- The federal debt has steadily increased over the past decade, from $16.72 trillion in 2013 to $33.17 trillion in 2023.
-
Percentage of GDP:
- In FY 2023, the federal debt was 126.0 percent of GDP.
- The increase in federal debt, viewed as a percentage of GDP, has risen from 60 percent in 2012 to over 100 percent in recent years.
-
20th Century Overview:
- Federal debt started the 20th century at less than 10 percent of GDP.
- Peaked during World War II and the aftermath of the Crash of 2008, breaching 100 percent of GDP twice since 1900.
Federal Interest:
- Interest Payments:
- Federal interest payments began the 20th century at less than 0.2 percent of GDP.
- Peaked at 3.16 percent of GDP in 1991.
- Held steady at about 1.3 percent of GDP in the mid-2010s, rising to 1.75 percent in 2019.
Types of Debt:
- Monetized Debt, Debt Held by Government, and Other Debt:
- Monetized debt (blue) is federal debt bought by the Federal Reserve System.
- Debt held by the federal government (red), such as IOUs for Social Security.
- Other debt (green) is debt in public hands, including foreign governments.
Future Projections:
- CBO Forecast:
- According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the federal publicly held debt is expected to grow from 102 percent of GDP in 2021 to 195 percent of GDP by 2050.
Data Sources:
- Reliable Data:
- Debt data is sourced from official government sources, including the president's budget, the U.S. Treasury, the St. Louis Fed, and the Census Bureau.
- Gross Domestic Product data is obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.
My wealth of knowledge in these areas positions me to offer valuable insights into the intricacies of the U.S. federal debt and its economic implications.
