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ADVERTISING DISCLOSURE Anyone who’s been to our site for longer than 3 seconds knows we LOVE index funds. In fact we rely on index funds as our primary investments. However, some investors fear that index funds will cause the stock market to break. Namely, what if everyone invested in index funds? But before we dig into that, let’s define explore the benefits of index funds and then define what they are.
4 Reasons We Love Index Funds
- You are guaranteed to earn market returns (something that half of PROFESSIONAL investment professionals can’t do)
- You pay much lower fees and taxes than if you were moving in and out of individual stocks
- It’s so simple to choose awesome index funds to invest in.
- With the advent of target date funds, you can even simplify your investments and own a single index fund.
What Are Index Funds?
A stock index fund is simply a group of stocks that you can buy as a single bundle. The most popular index funds are built to track a specific index like the S&P 500. By purchasing an index fund, you will own a whole group of stocks. (Bond index funds also exist, but let’s focus on stocks to keep things more simple.)
Owning an index fund like an S&P 500 index fund provides diversification because you will, in essence, own small slivers of 500 different companies, instead of only a handful. Diversification basically means spreading your money out among many investments. By doing this, you reduce the riskiness of your portfolio. In other words, you lower the chance that you’ll lose A LOT of you wealth due to a few of your investments losing value while not meaningfully lowering your returns. The power of diversification will protect your portfolio from the risk of picking the ‘wrong’ stocks. In your index fund, some stocks may go up while some will go down in value. But historically, the broader stock market has always increased over long periods of time. This is why they are such a wonderful way to invest.
Here’s why you shouldn’t buy individual stocks!
Could The Stock Market ‘Break’ If Everyone Invested In Index Funds?
In theory, yes. But in reality that won’t be happening any time soon for a few reasons.
The prices of stocks in the stock market are set via supply and demand. There’s essentially an invisible electronic middle man who matches buyers and sellers who place bids for stocks at certain prices. As the computers match buyers and sellers, the current stock price will move up and down to the current price at which people are willing to buy and sell.
For example, let assume you own Tesla stock that you want to sell and it’s currently trading for $280. You are welcome to place a sell order at a price of $350. However, if no one else believes that Tesla is worth $350 then you probably will not be able to sell your shares for $350. You’ll then have to keep lowering your asking price until someone is agrees with your price. This is a high level example of how the market determines stock prices.
Some people worry that if everyone decides to only invest using index funds, then the stock market will stop working. For example, if everyone buys index funds, the values of the stock prices of the underlying companies won’t reflect the fair value of the companies in the stock market. Instead the prices of stocks will simply reflect the the inflow of funds to indexes.
Do Index Funds Help Determine The Fair Price Of Stocks?
No, index funds don’t participate in the price discovery process in the same way as the traditional practice of buying and selling individual stocks. At a basic level, index funds are pools of money that buy groups stocks in certain proportions at the current stock market price. They don’t take a view on what the price of a stock should be. They simply buy an entire group of stocks when investors invest money into the index fund.
What this means is that if every investor in the world only purchased the same index fund, then the market of buyers and sellers would no longer set the fair market price of the stocks in the stock market. In a sense, the stock market would no longer be a “market”.
Remember, picking individual stocks is for dummies.
What If Everyone Invested In Index Funds Funds?
In theory, it’s a valid concern that uniform adoption of index funds could cause the market to stop working efficiently. However, the vast majority of the public stock market would have to be held by index investors for the market to break down and stop working as intended. Economist Larry Swedroe, for example, believes that index fund ownership would need to account for more than 90% of all stock ownership for index funds to cause a problem.
According to Bloomberg, index funds only own 18% of the stock market. In other word, we still have a long way to go before we really need to worry about index funds causing problems. Index funds were created by John Bogle at Vanguard in the mid 1970’s, so if the past 45 years are any indication, there is still A LOT of time before index fund ownership gets anywhere close to 90% of all stocks.
Do You Own Index Funds?
FAQs
For example, if everyone buys index funds, the values of the stock prices of the underlying companies won't reflect the fair value of the companies in the stock market. Instead the prices of stocks will simply reflect the the inflow of funds to indexes.
What would happen if everyone invested in index funds? ›
Individuals and institutions would still pick individual stocks to try to beat the market, just over a longer time frame. If all money (or a significant portion) was only invested in index funds, liquidity of individual stocks would decrease.
What happens if you only invest in index funds? ›
If you're new to investing, you can absolutely start off by buying index funds alone as you learn more about how to choose the right stocks. But as your knowledge grows, you may want to branch out and add different companies to your portfolio that you feel align well with your personal risk tolerance and goals.
What would happen if everyone traded stocks? ›
If everyone invested equally in the stock market, the value of these stocks would neither go up nor down. This is because an equal investment in the stock market results in the lack of prices, which are the driving forces of stock value. Again, it is quite tricky always to have a win-win situation in the stock market.
Why doesn't everyone invest in index funds? ›
No Control Over Holdings
Indexes are set portfolios. If an investor buys an index fund, they have no control over the individual holdings in the portfolio. You may have specific companies that you like and want to own, such as a favorite bank or food company that you have researched and want to buy.
What would happen if everyone indexed? ›
If nobody is participating in price discovery actively (because 100% of us are indexing), the market won't be able to price stocks correctly or efficiently. At which point people who want to make some money will exploit the fact that nothing is priced correctly, and make the market efficient enough again.
What happens if all investors are passive? ›
What's worse about this is not that you as an investor have no choice but to expose yourself to bad companies but that, if we were all passive investors, there would be no mechanism to adequately value companies in the market based on their business, and therefore, it would be virtually impossible to trust the values ...
Do billionaires invest in index funds? ›
It's easy to see why S&P 500 index funds are so popular with the billionaire investor class. The S&P 500 has a long history of delivering strong returns, averaging 9% annually over 150 years. In other words, it's hard to find an investment with a better track record than the U.S. stock market.
Is it wise to only invest in S&P 500? ›
For investors who want to get in on the action, the good news is that investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 index is an easily accessible strategy. But experts say it also deserves a word of caution: Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Why doesn't everyone just invest in S&P 500? ›
That's because your investment gives you access to the broad stock market. Meanwhile, if you only invest in S&P 500 ETFs, you won't beat the broad market. Rather, you can expect your portfolio's performance to be in line with that of the broad market. But that's not necessarily a bad thing.
When there are no buyers, you can't sell your shares—you'll be stuck with them until there is some buying interest from other investors. A buyer could pop in a few seconds, or it could take minutes, days, or even weeks in the case of very thinly traded stocks.
Who buys stocks when everyone is selling? ›
The buyer could be another investor or a market maker. Market makers can take the opposite side of a trade to provide liquidity for stocks that are listed on major exchanges.
Is it rare to get rich from stocks? ›
Can You Make a Lot of Money in Stocks? Yes, if your goals are realistic. Although you hear of making a killing with a stock that doubles, triples, or quadruples in price, such occurrences are rare, and/or usually reserved for day traders or institutional investors who take a company public.
Why do financial advisors hate index funds? ›
Financial Advisors' Fees Are Too High to Use Index Funds
We looked at the overwhelming body of research that points to the low-odds of outperforming the market over the long run using stock-picking or market-timing strategies.
Has anyone ever lost money on index funds? ›
All investments carry risk. An index fund, like anything else, can potentially lose value over time. That being said, most mainstream index funds are generally considered a conservative way to invest in equities (although there are lesser-known index funds that are thought to carry greater risk).
Are index funds 100% safe? ›
Because the goal of index funds is to mirror the same holdings of whatever index they track, they are naturally diversified and thus hold a lower risk than individual stock holdings. Market indexes tend to have a good track record, too.
Can an index fund investor lose everything? ›
So while it's theoretically possible to lose everything, it doesn't happen for standard funds. That said, an index fund could underperform and lose money for years, depending on what it's invested in. But the odds that an index fund loses everything are very low.
Why people should invest in index funds? ›
Lower costs: Index funds typically have lower expense ratios because they are passively managed. Market representation: Index funds aim to mirror the performance of a specific index, offering broad market exposure. This is worthwhile for those looking for a diversified investment that tracks overall market trends.
What are the risks of investing in index funds? ›
An index fund will be subject to the same general risks as the securities in the index it tracks. The fund may also be subject to certain other risks, such as: Lack of Flexibility. An index fund may have less flexibility than a non-index fund to react to price declines in the securities in the index.
