What Happens to Real Estate During Inflation? (2024)

FAQs

What happens to real estate when there is inflation? ›

Inflation can lead to higher asset prices

As this price of things increases with inflation, so too does real estate. Generally speaking, when inflation increases then housing and other real estate asset prices follow suit.

Real estate works well with inflation. This is because, as inflation rises, so do property values, and so does the amount a landlord can charge for rent. This results in the landlord earning a higher rental income over time. This helps to keep pace with the rise in inflation.

Will house prices go down in a recession? While the cost of financing a home typically increases when interest rates are on the rise, home prices themselves may actually decline. “Usually, during a recession or periods of higher interest rates, demand slows and values of homes come down,” says Miller.

Collectors. Historically, collectibles like fine art, wine, or baseball cards can benefit from inflationary periods as the dollar loses purchasing power. During high inflation, investors often turn to hard assets that are more likely to retain their value through market volatility.

House prices tend to rise as inflation increases.

In general, when interest rates are higher or increasing, the housing market slows down. When interest rates are going up, the cost of owning a home becomes more expensive due to the higher interest rate, which reduces demand. This reduction in demand then results in a drop in home prices.

However, as high inflation costs press down on buyers, it could depress home values. Although he doesn't expect a major housing market crash, Buehler says he sees home values flattening out as inflation nestles into the housing market.

Commodities like gold, oil, and even soybeans should increase in price along with the finished products that are made with them. Inflation-indexed bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), tend to increase their returns with inflationary pressures.

Home prices generally fall during recessions, with home values slipping in four out of the five major recessions between 1980 and 2008.

Should you invest in real estate during a recession? ›

Real estate is a great asset to own when the economy is in freefall. A rental property typically acts as a natural hedge in a volatile market. Primarily because many people that sell their homes or properties during an economic downturn or recession need to sell their property.

Low-income households most stressed by inflation

Prior research suggests that inflation hits low-income households hardest for several reasons. They spend more of their income on necessities such as food, gas and rent—categories with greater-than-average inflation rates—leaving few ways to reduce spending .

Inflation occurs when most prices are rising by some degree across the economy. Debtors gain from inflation because they repay creditors with money that is worth, less in terms of purchasing power. And creditors lose the most, as they lend money when the value was high and get it back when it loses some of the value.

Inflation means the value of money will fall and purchase relatively fewer goods than previously. In summary: Inflation will hurt those who keep cash savings and workers with fixed wages. Inflation will benefit those with large debts who, with rising prices, find it easier to pay back their debts.

After peaking at 6.2% in 2022, we expect inflation to fall to 3.5% for 2023. Over 2024 to 2027, we expect inflation to average just 1.8%—below the Fed's 2% target.

Housing costs, including rent prices, are a major driver of inflation.

Key Takeaways. Your interest rate becomes more important if you plan to live in your home for more than five years because you'll be paying it for a longer period of time. Buying a home at a lower price but at a higher interest rate can be workable if you can refinance the mortgage in the future to reduce your rate.

Mortgage rates are likely to decrease slightly in 2023, although they're highly unlikely to return to the rock-bottom levels of 2020 and 2021. However, rate volatility may continue for some time.

Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors expect mortgage rates to drop through the first quarter of 2024, by half a percentage point to about nine-tenths of a percentage point. Figures are the predicted quarterly average rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

“We expect that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.2%,” the organization noted in its forecast commentary. It since has walked back its forecast slightly but still sees rates dipping below 6%, to 5.6%, by the end of the year.

Will housing market crash in 2024? ›

Despite the fact that there are some troubling trends in the housing market, we're likely not going to see a crash in 2023 or 2024. While house prices are likely to drop, demand for housing caused by America's ongoing housing shortage is likely to keep prices relatively stable.

Rising property prices can also discourage productive lending, and lead to capital being misallocated. When housing markets boom, banks tend to engage in more mortgage lending. But because lenders face capital constraints, this is often accompanied by reduced lending to businesses.

Savings Bonds

These are typically considered safe investments because the value can't decline, which makes them a stabilizing investment during inflation or other periods of uncertainty.

Because there is no chance of a decline in value, “cash is the best option, even if inflation is a risk factor,” she says.

Another inflation-protected asset is precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum. Historically, these assets have shown a high degree of resiliency during prolonged periods of inflation. Investing in precious metals can also help diversify your portfolio if it's comprised mostly of stocks and bonds.

Where to safely keep cash at home. Just like any other piece of paper, cash can get lost, wet or burned. Consider buying a fireproof and waterproof safe for your home. It's also useful for storing other valuables in your home such as jewelry and important personal documents.

Keep Cash to a Minimum

Danielle Miura, CFP, the founder and owner of Spark Financials, suggested, “You should keep enough money on hand to get you a couple of gallons of gas, pay for a delivery tip, or to help in unfortunate events,” or around $100-$200 at a time.

How much should I have in savings during inflation? You should keep three to six months of your expenses as emergency savings in your savings account. Anything above that could result in needlessly losing money to inflation.

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

Although home prices are expected to improve in the second half of the year, the California median home price is projected to decrease by 5.6 percent to $776,600 in 2023, down from the median price of $822,300 recorded in 2022.

Is it better to have cash or property in a recession? ›

In addition, during recessions, people with access to cash are in a better position to take advantage of investment opportunities that can significantly improve their finances long-term.

Buying a rental property might be an obvious choice. As long as you're able to keep tenants, renting out property can generate income through a recession. There are different types of rental properties you might consider, including: Single-family homes.

What Happens to Rents in a Recession? Rents can go both up and down in a recession. The location of a rental property and how hard the local economy is hit by a recession will dictate whether rents go up, down or stay the same.

The median price for a U.S. home sold during the fourth quarter of 2008 fell to $180,100, down from $205,700 during the last quarter of 2007. Prices fell by a record 9.5% in 2008, to $197,100, compared to $217,900 in 2007. In comparison, median home prices dipped a mere 1.6% between 2006 and 2007.

The more people who go broke, the more money moves up. The result is the wealth continues to concentrate in the hands of fewer and fewer people. This happens because inflation hurts the lower incomes but actually enriches the higher incomes.

So, yes, the inflation experience of high- and low-income households is not that different on the items that they purchase, but the low-income households spend virtually all their resources on inflation-affected items while the high-income spend a significantly smaller share on those items.

Adding certain asset classes, such as commodities, to a well-diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds can help buffer against inflation. Be cautious about overallocating to cash, but make sure your emergency fund is keeping up with rising costs.

Losers – Savers

Their income and the value of their assets won't have increased at the same rate as price increases. They are made worse off.

Is high inflation good news for homeowners? Unfortunately, high inflation is rarely a good thing for those with mortgages. If interest rates subsequently rise, this pushes up mortgage rates too. But not everyone will see an instant increase in their monthly repayments.

Global inflation will fall in 2023 and 2024 amid subpar economic growth. Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024.

Is inflation good for landlords? ›

For the most part, inflation is beneficial to landlords because it raises the cost of housing which will raise rent and gross income. This is because the demand for rental housing increases as people become more willing to pay high rents than an unmanageable mortgage in that economic environment.

Investing in farmland as an inflation hedge. There's one more big reason that farmland is an especially compelling investment right now: inflation. Unlike mainstream financial assets, which tend to lose value when consumer prices go up, the value of farmland actually tends to rise when prices rise.

As noted, inflationary pressure often leads to increased demand for homes and thus drives prices up. If you plan to sell your home, you're benefiting from a seller's market, and those high prices work in your favor.

Holding long-term fixed-rate investments, such as long-term bonds, fixed annuities, and some types of life insurance policies, during inflation can be bad because their returns may not keep up with inflation.

Looking at the data, inflation-adjusted returns, even factoring in inflation, have almost always been positive in history - meaning that price appreciation for real estate is greater than the inflation rate!