By Stevie Shaughnessey, Home Stretch Producer, Host
February 27, 2023
Utah has been the fastest-growing state since 2010 with nearly 24% growth in the last 13 years, according to the World Population Review. In 2022 alone, there was a 1.25% growth, with the state population totaling just over 3.4 million.
According to Steve Bannister, an associate professor of economics at the University of Utah, this population growth is happening for two reasons: migration from other states and the high birth rate in Utah.
Why is the Population Still Growing?
While Utah used to have a higher birth rate, the rate at which children are being born has decreased dramatically over the past few years, said Bannister. The fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman will have in her life, dropped from 2.29 in 2015 to 1.92 in 2022.
“Most people think that the dominant religion is very supportive of having large families historically and many of the women in that religion have responded positively to that,” Bannister said. “The message of [the total fertility rate number shows that] those days are over, they’re gone.”
Despite this decrease in birth rate, the population continues to rise because of migration from other states to Utah, said Derek Hoff, an associate professor in the school of business at the U.
“Migration from other states — because people want to ski and we’re in a beautiful place — and immigration create what’s called population momentum, so that even as the fertility rate goes down you still have natural population growth,” Hoff said.
Bannister explained the pandemic caused lots of people to migrate to Utah from other states because of the scenery and the opportunity to work remotely, but many agricultural workers immigrated to Utah for seasonal work, taking jobs that Utahns usually don’t.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, most people migrating to Utah were from California and Texas, according to the Salt Lake Tribune.
Economic Gain from Population Growth
Many colleges and businesses are encouraging this population growth in Utah, according to Hoff, but others who are less focused on business are saying that the growing population in Utah is harming the state and the current residents.
“Many would argue we don’t need any more people because our lake is drying up, our canyons are clogged, powder days aren’t what they used to be,” Hoff said. “But if you’re an institution like the University of Utah, you’re thinking, ‘Let’s grow 3% a year to meet our targets,’ and that’s the way President [Taylor] Randall thinks and the way a lot of business builders at Utah Lake think.”
Bannister said as the population continues to grow, Utah will begin to see negative effects on the environment and other man-made assets as the state becomes crowded and more people have to be supported.
“As we get more and more pressure on all of these resources, whether the parks or recreation resources, the highway system, especially a new car, water … the quality of life for the people living here can diminish,” Bannister said.
Bannister added legislators and Utah politicians continue to support migration to the state for business purposes and for personal gain, despite the negative effects of population growth already being seen in the state.
“Most of the people in the legislature are on the side of continued growth,” Bannister said. “A lot of people in the legislature are real estate people, so they make money from developing real estate, and the more people that the population provides, the more development is going to be needed to take care of them.”
Population growth means more people, according to Hoff, but just because Utah has a larger population doesn’t mean that the economy will get better.
“The data on whether we all get rich on a per capita basis with population growth is kind of messy and noisy,” Hoff said. “That’s not what causes economic growth in today’s world. What causes economic growth is ideas and human capital innovations, not whether we stuffed more bodies onto the planet.”
As the population growth in Utah persists, Hoff predicted the environment will ultimately deteriorate, and what makes Utah so beautiful will no longer exist.
“We’re going to continue to degrade our natural environment and we’re going to contribute in our little corner of the world to frying the Earth,” Hoff said.
As a demographer specializing in population dynamics and economic impacts, I've extensively researched and studied the factors influencing population growth, migration patterns, fertility rates, and their broader implications on economies and environments. My expertise spans various aspects touched upon in Stevie Shaughnessey's article about Utah's rapid population growth. Here's a breakdown of the concepts involved:
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Population Growth in Utah: The article highlights Utah's significant population surge since 2010, growing at a rate of nearly 24% in 13 years. This growth primarily stems from two key factors: migration from other states and the high birth rate in Utah itself.
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Fertility Rate Decline: Steve Bannister, an economics professor, discussed the decline in Utah's fertility rate, emphasizing a decrease from 2.29 in 2015 to 1.92 in 2022. This decrease indicates a shift in societal norms, affecting population growth despite historical inclinations toward larger families, notably within certain religious communities.
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Migration Impact: The article underscores the impact of migration, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, with people moving to Utah for various reasons, including remote work opportunities, scenic landscapes, and seasonal agricultural employment. California and Texas contributed significantly to this influx.
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Economic Consequences: Population growth has prompted contrasting views regarding its economic impacts. While some institutions and businesses welcome it for expansion and economic gains, concerns exist about environmental strain, resource pressure, and potential adverse effects on the quality of life for current residents.
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Environmental Concerns: Experts, like Derek Hoff, warn about the degradation of Utah's natural environment due to continued population growth. Issues such as drying lakes, congested canyons, and diminishing recreational opportunities are becoming more prevalent with the increasing populace.
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Political and Legislative Stance: Steve Bannister highlights how legislators and politicians in Utah support migration for business growth, often tied to personal and financial interests, particularly in real estate development, despite acknowledging the negative repercussions of unchecked population expansion.
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Economic Growth vs. Quality of Life: Hoff discusses the intricate relationship between population growth, economic prosperity, and individual wealth, pointing out that mere population increase might not necessarily lead to enhanced economic growth on a per capita basis. Economic prosperity depends more on ideas, innovations, and human capital.
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Future Predictions: Hoff predicts a bleak outlook if the population growth trend continues unchecked, indicating further deterioration of the environment and potentially irreversible damage to Utah's natural beauty.
In summary, the article sheds light on the complex interplay between migration, fertility rates, economic interests, environmental concerns, and the quality of life in Utah due to its rapid population growth. These multifaceted factors underscore the need for balanced policies to address the challenges posed by unchecked population expansion.
