UK faces highest probability of recession at 75%; check where India stands (2024)

Zerodha co-founder and CEO Nikhil Kamath has recently dedicated a post to his friends who have graduated from fancy colleges in the United States, working there, and now thinking of coming back to their homeland to start something.

He shared two graphs, one with ‘Recession Probabilities Worldwide 2023’ (Source: Bloomberg) and another showing ‘World Output Projection 2023’ (World Economic Outlook IMF).

According to the Recession Probabilities Worldwide 2023 data, India has a 0% probability of recession this year, while UK and US have 75% and 65% chances of recession respectively. In Canada, there is 60% chance of recession, while the rate stands at 60% in Germany.

On the other hand, if we look at real GDP data, India stands at the first spot with 5.9% real GDP (annual percent change), while the US has 1.6% real GDP growth and Canada with 1.5%.

Therefore, Nikhil Kamath wrote in a tweet, “To my many friends who have graduated from fancy colleges in the #US, working there, considering moving back home to start something. All indications point to #India being 'the place' to be this decade; from a relative standpoint, for an #entrepreneur, the opportunity is here..."

Since being posted, the tweet has accumulated more than 32.4k views, over 2,000 likes, and numerous reactions in the comment section.

One user said, “this insight will bring a drastic shift in the landscape of exchange students."

“Well, moving back to India to start something will be a small minority....moving back to India for jobs will be the real deal and I don't see that happening any time soon...," another user commented.

“Several of my NRI friends have been contemplating the same, however none have come back so far," a third user wrote.

Updated: 16 Apr 2023, 06:45 PM IST