U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century (2024)

NOV. 9, 2023— The U.S. population is projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before edging downward to 366 million in 2100.By 2100, the total U.S. resident population is projected to increase by only 9.7% from 2022, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau population projections released today. The projections provide possible scenarios of population change for the nation through the end of the century.

The 2023 National Population Projections is an update to the last series of projections, published in 2017, to account for the impact of COVID-19 and to reflect the results of the 2020 Census through its inclusion ofthe Vintage 2022 National Population Estimatesas a base. It also extends the population projections to 2100, the first time since 2000 that the Census Bureau projections have stretched this far intothe future.

“In an ever-changing world, understanding population dynamics is crucial for shaping policies and planning resources,” stated Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau.

“The U.S. has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years,” she explained. “Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future. Incorporating additional years of data on births, deaths and international migration into our projections process resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected.”

Projections illustrate possible courses of population change based on assumptions about future births, deaths and net international migration. The 2023 projections include a main series (also known as the middle series) considered the most likely outcome of four assumptions, and three alternative immigration scenarios that show how the population might change under high, low and zero immigration assumptions.

Other highlights:

The 2023 National Population Projections provide estimates of the future U.S. population by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin and nativity through 2060 and by age, sex and nativity only through 2100. These projections supersede the 2017 series and are the first set of projections based on the 2020 Census.

Different levels of immigration between the present and 2100 could change the projection of the population in that year by as much as 209 million people, with the projected total population ranging anywhere from 226 to 435 million. Varying assumptions about immigration also impact the projected composition of the population, with higher levels of immigration resulting in a projected population that is younger and more racially and ethnically diverse.

The Census Bureau regularly updates its population projections as new data on the components of change (births, deaths and migration) become available.

For more information, viewpopulation projectionsor visitcensus.gov.

U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century (2024)

FAQs

U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century? ›

U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century. The U.S. population is projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before edging downward to 366 million in 2100.

Will the U.S. population start to decline? ›

U.S. Population Growth Remains Sluggish After COVID-19

Consequently, if all things remain equal, the United States population is expected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before declining to 366 million in 2100.

Is the U.S. population declining in 2024? ›

In CBO's projections, the population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054, growing by 0.4 percent per year, on average, or by less than one-half the pace experienced from 1974 to 2023 (0.9 percent per year).

What is the aging population projection for the United States? ›

U.S. centenarian population is projected to quadruple over the next 30 years. The number of Americans ages 100 and older is projected to more than quadruple over the next three decades, from an estimated 101,000 in 2024 to about 422,000 in 2054, according to projections from the U.S. Census Bureau.

How many Americans are projected to be over 100 years old by 2060? ›

This statistic shows the number of people aged 100 and over (centenarians) in the United States from 2016 to 2060. In 2016, there were 82,000 centenarians in the United States. This figure is expected to increase to 589,000 in the year 2060.

What state is losing the most population? ›

State highlights

Eight states continued to lose residents in 2023—New York (-0.52), Louisiana (-0.31%), Hawaii (-0.3%), Illinois (-0.26%), West Virginia (-0.22%), California (-0.19%), Oregon (-0.14%), and Pennsylvania (-0.08%)—and all did so at a slower pace than in the previous year.

What population is declining the fastest? ›

In the Cook Islands in 2023, the population decreased by about 2.31 percent compared to the previous year, making it the country with the highest population decline rate in 2023.

What percentage of Americans live to be 80 years old? ›

The estimated population of the U.S. That site suggests that in the U.S., just over 6% make it to age 80.

What age is considered elderly? ›

Traditionally, the “elderly” are considered to be those persons age 65 and older.

What percent of people live to 90? ›

At the end of the study, about 16% of the men and about 34% of the women survived to the age of 90. In fact, the authors found women who were taller than 5 feet 9 inches were 31% more likely to reach 90, compared to those who were under 5 feet 3 inches.

Where do Americans live after 85? ›

A quarter live in multigenerational households, with people of two or more generations under the same roof, and about 8 percent live in nursing homes or memory care facilities. The Washington Post spoke with 11 people about where they chose to live as they age.

Is 50 considered a senior citizen? ›

The question becomes, “exactly when does a person become a senior?” There is no single definition. Medicare would say age 65; Social Security would indicate age 62 or age 65. Senior discounts typically begin age 55 to 60 or even at age 50, which is the minimum age to become an AARP member.

What percentage of humans live to be 100 years old? ›

Centenarian statistics across the world

In the US, 2021 records show that in a population of 336,996,624 people, there were 89,739 centenarians (a prevalence of 0.27%). This figure has almost doubled in the last 20 years and centenarians are projected to make up 0.1% of the population by 2054.

Is the U.S. birth rate declining? ›

After a steep plunge in the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the fertility rate has fluctuated. But the 3% drop between 2022 and 2023 brought the rate just below the previous low from 2020, which was 56 births for every 1,000 women of reproductive age. “We've certainly had larger declines in the past.

Will the world population decline by 2050? ›

The world population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. As with any type of projection, there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding these latest population projections.

What will the U.S. population be in 2050? ›

The population of the United States in 2020 is 332 million and it is projected to grow to 388 million by 2050.

What will the white population be in 2050? ›

2050s. By 2050, the share of the U.S. population that is white and not Hispanic will be under 50% for the first time. Currently, 58.9% of U.S. residents are white and not Hispanic. By 2050, Hispanic residents will account for a quarter of the U.S. population, up from 19.1% today.

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