The stock market collapse has blown a giant hole in mindless ETF investing (2024)

The stock market collapse has blown a giant hole in mindless ETF investing (1) The stock market collapse has blown a giant hole in mindless ETF investing (2)
  • Exchange-traded funds are useless in a downward market, according to David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff.
  • In fact, they have contributed to the mindless runup that is now unwinding.
  • "The masses don’t want to pay fees for making critical decisions on their behalf. This may work in a market that is a straight-line up but sure doesn’t work when the going gets tough and the bull market gets punctuated with volatility and corrective behavior," he told clients.
  • "Over 50% of the rally in the Dow in 2017 came down to just five stocks and over 80% of the advance was centered in ten names. That concentrated character was exactly the same in the opening weeks of the year up to the all-time highs. So many ETF investors believe they are in diversified safe strategies when the exact opposite has been the case," he argues


If your retirement savings are invested in an exchange-traded index fund (ETF), you're probably hurting from last week's stock market collapse. The S&P 500 Index has fallen more than 10% from its high in the last few weeks.

ETFs are designed to track indexes like the S&P 500, so that you get the same rate of return as if you had bought the market as a whole. In most years, that works out better than giving your money to an active investment manager —because most managers, notoriously, underperform the market as a whole. Investors also like them because they offer a diversified portfolio: You're buying every stock in the index.

ETFs have become really popular in the last 10 years. Today, ETF indexes represent 25% to 30% of trading volume on any given day, according to the Financial Times.

The stock market collapse has blown a giant hole in mindless ETF investing (3)

Deutsche Bank

The fear is that passive investment—when retirement savers let their 401(k)'s and private pension plans pour a slice of their salaries into ETFs, month after month — has driven up the value of the entire stock market through thoughtless buying.

Last week's massacre exposes another problem: ETFs have never really been through a down market at this scale.Cash inflows into ETFs are now worth a total of $1.4 trillion.

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ETF holders generally only have two choices in a bear market, and both of them are bad:

  • Continue to hold the funds, and take the loss in value.
  • Or sell the funds, take the loss in value, and accelerate the downward price momentum.

David A. Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Canadian wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff is pretty angry about this. In a note to clients last week, he argued that the crash exposes a huge flaw in ETFs:

"What has been exposed is the pitfalls of passive ETF investing. This has triggered massive unconstrained and undisciplined buying activity because the masses don’t want to pay fees for making critical decisions on their behalf. This may work in a market that is a straight-line up but sure doesn’t work when the going gets tough and the bull market gets punctuated with volatility and corrective behavior."

"These investors go and buy a basket that they believe to be diversified but that is far from the case. Remember how concentrated this market has been in recent times — over 50% of the rally in the Dow in 2017 came down to just five stocks and over 80% of the advance was centered in ten names.

"That concentrated character was exactly the same in the opening weeks of the year up to the all-time highs. So many ETF investors believe they are in diversified safe strategies when the exact opposite has been the case. Time for a rethink when they see a couple of stocks in the basket they invested in end up exerting such an outsized negative influence on what they own in aggregate."

Gluskin Sheff is an active manager, so Rosenberg is biased. He thinks investors should "rely on brains rather than buttons, which, by the way, is our edge."

Nonetheless, he says: "ETF investors who get their next statement, may be shocked that the market has not continued to move ever higher. They may want to start thinking about that as we enter this entirely new bull market in two-sided trading and heightened volatility."

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The stock market collapse has blown a giant hole in mindless ETF investing (2024)

FAQs

How do ETFs affect the market? ›

This means that ETFs are net contributors to market liquidity. At a minimum, an ETF will be as liquid as its underlying securities or instruments; often, however, ETFs provide even greater market liquidity than their underlying instruments through their secondary market trading.

Are ETFs better than stocks? ›

ETFs offer advantages over stocks in two situations. First, when the return from stocks in the sector has a narrow dispersion around the mean, an ETF might be the best choice. Second, if you are unable to gain an advantage through knowledge of the company, an ETF is your best choice.

Are ETFs good for beginners? ›

The low investment threshold for most ETFs makes it easy for a beginner to implement a basic asset allocation strategy that matches their investment time horizon and risk tolerance. For example, young investors might be 100% invested in equity ETFs when they are in their 20s.

When to buy an ETF? ›

Generally speaking, the best time to trade ETFs is closer to the middle of the trading day rather than the beginning or end.

Why is ETF not a good investment? ›

ETFs are subject to market fluctuation and the risks of their underlying investments. ETFs are subject to management fees and other expenses. Unlike mutual funds, ETF shares are bought and sold at market price, which may be higher or lower than their NAV, and are not individually redeemed from the fund.

Can ETFs go to zero? ›

For most standard, unleveraged ETFs that track an index, the maximum you can theoretically lose is the amount you invested, driving your investment value to zero. However, it's rare for broad-market ETFs to go to zero unless the entire market or sector it tracks collapses entirely.

What is the downside of ETFs? ›

For instance, some ETFs may come with fees, others might stray from the value of the underlying asset, ETFs are not always optimized for taxes, and of course — like any investment — ETFs also come with risk.

What is the best ETF to invest in right now? ›

Invest in stocks, fractional shares, and crypto all in one place.
  • ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO)
  • Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
  • Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF (XMMO)
  • SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)
  • Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF (SPGP)
Apr 3, 2024

What is the best ETF to invest in 2024? ›

Best ETFs as of April 2024
TickerFund name5-year return
SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF30.70%
XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund24.57%
IYWiShares U.S. Technology ETF24.09%
FTECFidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF22.79%
1 more row
Mar 29, 2024

Which ETF has the highest return? ›

100 Highest 5 Year ETF Returns
SymbolName5-Year Return
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust Series I18.25%
IGMiShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF18.06%
IWYiShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF17.93%
SCHGSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF17.29%
93 more rows

How much money should I put in an ETF? ›

You expose your portfolio to much higher risk with sector ETFs, so you should use them sparingly, but investing 5% to 10% of your total portfolio assets may be appropriate. If you want to be highly conservative, don't use these at all.

What is the most popular ETF? ›

Most Popular ETFs by AUM
TickerFundAUM
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$363.23B
IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF$300.18B
VTIVanguard Total Stock Market ETF$288.78B
VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF$286.59B
6 more rows

What is the 10 am rule in stock trading? ›

Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour. For example, if a stock closed at $40 the previous day, opened at $42 the next, and reached $43 by 10 a.m., this would indicate that the stock is likely to remain above $42 by market close.

How long should you hold an ETF? ›

Similarly, you should consider holding those ETFs with gains past their first anniversary to take advantage of the lower long-term capital gains tax rates. ETFs that invest in currencies, metals, and futures do not follow the general tax rules.

What is the best day of the week to buy ETFs? ›

The best time of day to buy stocks is usually in the morning, shortly after the market opens. Mondays and Fridays tend to be good days to trade stocks, while the middle of the week is less volatile.

What is the primary disadvantage of an ETF? ›

Buying high and selling low

At any given time, the spread on an ETF may be high, and the market price of shares may not correspond to the intraday value of the underlying securities. Those are not good times to transact business.

Do ETFs try to beat the market? ›

ETF Performance Expectations

ETFs are most often linked to a benchmarking index, meaning that they are often not designed to outperform that index. Investors looking for this type of outperformance (which also, of course, carries added risks) should perhaps look to other opportunities.

What are the pros and cons of ETF? ›

In addition, ETFs tend to have much lower expense ratios compared to actively managed funds, can be more tax-efficient, and offer the option to immediately reinvest dividends. Still, unique risks can arise from holding ETFs as well as tax considerations, depending on the type of ETF.

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