The collapse of two US banks raises the stakes for the Fed (2024)

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Two regional US banks, California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and New York’s Signature Bank, have collapsed under the weight of heavy losses on their bond portfolios and a massive run on deposits. They are the largest banks to fail in the US since Washington Mutual in 2008 (Washington Mutual had about US$309bn in assets at the time of its collapse, compared with SVB’s US$209bn).

Why does it matter?

For now, we do not expect the collapse of SVB and Signature to spread to the broader banking sector. For one, regulators moved swiftly to shore up market confidence and prevent more bank runs by providing additional liquidity in exchange for eligible assets. In an unusual move, the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Treasury Department committed to ensuring that all depositors in the two banks would regain access to their funds (which was restored on March 13th), even those not covered by the government’s deposit insurance scheme. Any losses suffered by the deposit insurance fund will be recovered through a special levy on other banks, rather than through taxpayer funds.

Although rising interest rates will weigh on the financial sector broadly, the two banks’ collapse was partially due to their unique positions. SVB was heavily exposed to risky technology start-ups and had an unusually large portfolio of bonds, making it vulnerable to the sharp rise in interest rates. Similarly, Signature had connections with the cryptocurrency sector, which has been roiled by uncertainty since the failure of the FTX exchange last November. Furthermore, the vast majority of deposits at both banks were above the US$250,000 limit for federal deposit insurance, making them susceptible to withdrawal at the first hint of trouble. Nevertheless, higher interest rates will be a continuing source of financial risk in 2023‑24.

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Last week Fed officials were considering a larger, 50-basis-point rate rise at their March meeting. The banks’ collapse and a subsequent sell-off in regional bank shares have eliminated this risk. There is now a chance that the Fed could choose not to raise interest rates at all in March. We expect the Fed to maintain its more modest pace, with a 25-basis-point increase, in response to still-strong economic data in January and February.

What next?

We continue to expect the Fed to make three more 25-basis-point rate increases, bringing its policy rate to a peak range of 5.25-5.5% in June. However, risks have quickly moved to the downside since last week. If investor sentiment weakens further, or if more regional banks start to struggle, which we do not expect, the Fed may keep rates on hold in March.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’sCountry Analysisservice. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.

Article tagsEconomyFinancial ServicesAmericasCountry Analysis

The collapse of two US banks raises the stakes for the Fed (2024)

FAQs

What are the two banks that collapsed in us? ›

Two regional US banks, California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and New York's Signature Bank, have collapsed under the weight of heavy losses on their bond portfolios and a massive run on deposits.

What does the collapse of banks mean? ›

Bank failure is one of the biggest fears of many savers when they believe a recession is on the way. Banks generally fail when they become insolvent, which means they don't have enough funds to cover total customer deposits and whatever money they owe to others.

Which bank collapsed in 2024? ›

There are no bank failures in 2024. See detailed descriptions below.

How many banks collapsed during the Great Depression? ›

Many of the small banks had lent large portions of their assets for stock market speculation and were virtually put out of business overnight when the market crashed. In all, 9,000 banks failed--taking with them $7 billion in depositors' assets.

What banks are affected by the collapse? ›

Banks affected were First Republic Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Regions Financial and Zions Bancorporation. Even shares of big banks lost ground in the aftermath of the SVB and Signature collapses, including Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup.

Why did US banks collapse? ›

These banks were brought down by customers withdrawing deposits en masse, both because many were tech or crypto businesses that needed money to cover losses, and because there were better savings rates available elsewhere.

What happens if US banks collapse? ›

When banks fail, the most common outcome is that another bank takes over the assets and your accounts are simply transferred over. If not, the FDIC will pay you out. Funds beyond the protected amount may still be reimbursed, but the FDIC does not guarantee this.

What happens if the US banking system collapses? ›

The fallout from a bank collapse can be widespread, hurting the bank's customers, employees, creditors, and even the entire economy. The bank and its shareholders are not the only stakeholders who suffer in a banking crisis. The bank's customers and account holders can be hit hard too.

Can banks seize your money if economy fails? ›

Banking regulation has changed over the last 100 years to provide more protection to consumers. You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC and NCUA deposit insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.

What banks are most at risk? ›

These Banks Are the Most Vulnerable
  • First Republic Bank (FRC) . Above average liquidity risk and high capital risk.
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) . Above average capital risk.
  • KeyCorp (KEY) . Above average capital risk.
  • Comerica (CMA) . ...
  • Truist Financial (TFC) . ...
  • Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) . ...
  • Zions Bancorporation (ZION) .
Mar 16, 2023

Is bank of America in trouble? ›

Overall, Bank of America appears to be in a relatively healthy financial position and is not currently in imminent danger of collapse.

Are credit unions safer than banks? ›

Generally, credit unions are viewed as safer than banks, although deposits at both types of financial institutions are usually insured at the same dollar amounts. The FDIC insures deposits at most banks, and the NCUA insures deposits at most credit unions.

How can I protect my money from a bank collapse? ›

Ensure Your Bank Is Insured

If a bank or credit union collapses, each depositor is covered for up to $250,000. If your bank or credit union isn't FDIC- or NCUA-insured, however, you won't have that guarantee, so make sure your funds are at an institution covered by deposit insurance.

Where did all the money go during the Great Depression? ›

The depressed economy caused many banks (especially small banks) to go bankrupt. At that time there was no deposit insurance, so many people withdrew their deposits from banks and kept their money as currency. Many bank runs occurred, as depositors were wary of bankruptcy.

What happens to your money in the bank during a depression? ›

Deposits Are Protected by the FDIC. This is overwhelmingly the main form of protection that consumers have in case their banks fail due to an economic downturn or other issue. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is a semi-private organization that was created in the wake of the Great Depression.

What are the two biggest banks in the US collapse? ›

List of largest bank failures in the United States
BankCityAssets at time of failure
Nominal
First Republic BankSan Francisco$229 billion
Silicon Valley BankSanta Clara$209 billion
Signature BankNew York$118 billion
77 more rows

What are the three major banks in the US collapse? ›

In 2023, the US government and America's largest banks joined forces in a rare moment of comity. They were forced into action after Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed on March 10, 2023, quickly followed by two other lenders, First Republic and Signature Bank.

How many banks are collapsing in USA? ›

There were 566 bank failures from 2001 through 2024. See Summary by Year below.

What is the second biggest bank collapse in the US? ›

SVB's collapse marked the second largest bank failure in U.S. history after Washington Mutual's in 2008. While bank failures aren't uncommon, it's rare to see banks of SVB's size become insolvent.

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