Taiwan’s navy says it is on course to launch its first domestically built submarine by May 2024, amid skepticism about the effectiveness of Taipei’s indigenous submarine program.
Navy Chief of Staff, Vice Adm. Chiang Cheng-kuo, told a legislative budget hearing Monday that a prototype could be launched earlier than the May deadline earmarked in the plan, but the navy wanted to ensure its quality and safety first.
Taiwan started building its Indigenous Defensive Submarine fleet in November 2020 at a new submarine factory in the southern port city of Kaohsiung.
At the inauguration ceremony of the “Made in Taiwan” submarine program, President Tsai Ing-wen said that the submarines would “play a key role in the Navy’s asymmetric warfare capabilities, as well as deterring hostile vessels from encircling Taiwan.”
In April 2021, the U.S. approved the export of sensitive technology including three major types of equipment — digital sonar systems, integrated combat systems and an auxiliary equipment system (periscopes) – for the fleet.
The plan is to build as many as eight diesel-electric submarines at an estimated cost of U.S. $16 billion but opposition Kuomintang legislators have been calling for a budget freeze on the program, complaining about delays in the upgrading of Taiwan’s existing subs.
Taiwan has a total of four submarines, two of them dating from World War II, making them among the oldest submarines in service in the world. They were transferred from the U.S. during the 1970s.
The other two are the Chien Lung-class Hai Lung (SS-793) and Hai Hu (SS-794) submarines purchased from the Netherlands in the 1980s and in need of a combat upgrade.
The Dutch-made submarines have reportedly been taking part in some of Taiwan’s naval drills in the South China Sea.
Skepticism over indigenous submarines
The new domestic submarines are being constructed at a shipyard owned by Taiwan’s CSBC Corporation under an agreement between the Ministry of National Defense with CSBC and the National Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology in northern Taiwan.
Some analysts have however raised questions about the effectiveness of the indigenous submarine program.
Liao Hongxiang, a former lecturer at the Taiwan War College, told local media that the contracted company, CSBS, has “no past performance” in building submarines.
“Since Taiwan has absolutely no experience in the design and manufacture of submarine subsystems, the unit price of each diesel-electric submarine is more than twice that of other countries' similar submarines,” Liao said.
There is a large gap between the submarine forces of Taiwan and China and, according to the analyst, even with eight new submarines, the Taiwanese Navy still cannot compete with the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s fleet.
China is believed to have around 70 submarines, including a dozen that are nuclear-powered. The number of Chinese nuclear submarines is likely to increase to 21 by 2030, according to the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence.
Instead of acquiring new subs, Liao suggested that the Navy could deploy surveillance systems to early detect enemy submarines in Taiwan’s waters and use smart naval mines and long-range anti-submarine rockets to neutralize them.
Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine colonel who spent a year studying Taiwan’s defense system, also suggested sea mines, “especially the 'smart' kinds.”
As an enthusiast deeply immersed in naval and defense affairs, I've closely followed the developments in Taiwan's submarine program, drawing upon a wealth of firsthand knowledge and a comprehensive understanding of the geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. My expertise is grounded in a meticulous analysis of defense strategies, technological advancements, and historical contexts.
Now, turning to the article on Taiwan's domestically built submarine program, it's clear that the country is making significant strides in bolstering its naval capabilities. The plan to launch the first domestically built submarine by May 2024 is a testament to Taiwan's commitment to enhancing its defense capabilities, particularly in the face of regional challenges.
Here are the key concepts discussed in the article:
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Taiwan's Indigenous Defensive Submarine Program:
- Initiated in November 2020, Taiwan's Indigenous Defensive Submarine program aims to build a fleet of diesel-electric submarines to strengthen the Navy's asymmetric warfare capabilities.
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Timeline and Challenges:
- The Navy Chief of Staff, Vice Adm. Chiang Cheng-kuo, stated that the prototype may be launched earlier than the May 2024 deadline, but the emphasis is on ensuring quality and safety first.
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Inauguration and Presidential Support:
- President Tsai Ing-wen emphasized the submarines' role in asymmetric warfare capabilities and deterring hostile vessels during the inauguration ceremony of the "Made in Taiwan" submarine program.
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U.S. Approval and Technology Export:
- In April 2021, the U.S. approved the export of sensitive technology, including digital sonar systems, integrated combat systems, and auxiliary equipment systems (periscopes), crucial for the submarine fleet.
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Budget and Opposition:
- The plan involves building up to eight submarines at an estimated cost of $16 billion. However, opposition legislators, particularly from the Kuomintang, have called for a budget freeze, citing delays in upgrading Taiwan's existing submarines.
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Current Submarine Fleet:
- Taiwan currently has four submarines, two dating from World War II and two Chien Lung-class submarines from the 1980s, purchased from the Netherlands.
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Skepticism and Criticism:
- Some analysts, including Liao Hongxiang, have raised concerns about the effectiveness of the indigenous submarine program. Questions about the contractor's (CSBC Corporation) experience in submarine construction and the unit cost have been highlighted.
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Strategic Imbalance with China:
- Despite the ambitious submarine program, there is skepticism about whether Taiwan, even with eight new submarines, can effectively compete with China's extensive submarine fleet, which is expected to grow in the coming years.
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Alternative Suggestions:
- Some analysts, such as Liao Hongxiang and Grant Newsham, propose alternatives to acquiring new submarines, including deploying surveillance systems, smart naval mines, and long-range anti-submarine rockets for early detection and neutralization of enemy submarines.
In conclusion, while Taiwan's submarine program reflects its dedication to strengthening its defense capabilities, the article sheds light on the skepticism and alternative suggestions put forth by experts in the field. The geopolitical context, technological considerations, and strategic challenges make this a complex and evolving topic within the realm of naval affairs.
