ICICI Direct expects theheadlineNiftyindex to touch the 21,400 mark in 2023, and rise all the way to as high as 50,000 by 2030. The brokerage's target for the current calendar yearimplies upside of as much as 16 per cent from its current levels.
"Our prognosis of various technical studies leads us to the conclusion that the Nifty is poised to reach towards 50,000 by CY30," said ICICI Direct in a report.
Can Nifty really reach 50,000? ICICI Direct mentions a "rhythm"
"Indian equities are likely to display the same rhythm that the US and Nikkei did in 1990-2000 and 1980-1990, respectively, i.e. delivering a decadal move of 5x (five times) on headline indices."
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The brokerage mentioned, in its report, the performance in 2021 and 2022, which it believes adds strength to the argument that Nifty is mimicking the forecast trajectory.
Decadal studies show that 2023 will turn out to be a strong year, it added.
(Source: NSE)
"Since inception in 1979, Sensex gained an average 4x in each decade. From CY20 close of 13,981 (Nifty), similar projection leads to ~56,000," saidICICI DirectanalystDharmesh Shah.
Top stocks to buy: ICICI Direct shares picks for 2023
ICICI Direct has handpicked nine stocks that in its view can give average returns of 22 per cent in 2023:
- L&T
- Ambuja Cement
- Bosch
- Federal Bank
- Sundaram Finance
- Bajaj Electricals
- KEC International
- Mishra Dhatu Nigam
- Techno Electric
Its top pick among these stocks is L&T, with a target price of Rs 2,520 (16 per cent upside).
The brokerage expects a 17-23 per cent jump in Ambuja Cement, Bosch, Federal Bank and Sundaram Finance.
Nifty 2023: ICICI Direct sees strong support emerging at 16,200
The average third-year returns of each decade have been positive with a median of 18 per cent for over the past four decades, the brokerage pointed out.
"CY22 projection based on this cycle of 18,900 has been achieved, adding credence to the cycle study. A similar target from a CMP of 18,420 projects a target of 21,720. Additionally, 70 per cent of the times a pre-election year has generated positive return," the report added.
The brokerage envisages midcap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks in two years and 20 per cent growth in midcap shares is the election year.
