Mortgage catastrophe brews in Britain as millions are pushed toward insolvency (2024)

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded shortly after the BOE's rate hike that the government's mission to halve inflation to 5% by the end of the year had recently become more difficult.

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There is intensifying pressure on Britain's government to do more to help struggling households, with the country's shadow finance minister warning of a "mortgage catastrophe" as millions are pushed to the brink of insolvency.

The Bank of England last week hiked interest rates by 50 basis points to 5%, a bigger increase than many had expected. The BOE's 13th consecutive rate rise takes the base rate to the highest level since 2008.

The surprise move — which is designed to lower inflation — will affect millions of homeowners as the interest rates on many mortgages in the U.K. are directly linked to the central bank's base rate. Renters, too, are likely to see their payments increase as buy-to-let landlords pass on higher mortgage repayments.

Research by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a leading independent think tank, estimated that the BOE's latest interest rate hike would see 1.2 million U.K. households (4% of households nationwide) run out of savings by the end of the year because of higher mortgage repayments.

That would take the proportion of insolvent households to nearly 30% (roughly 7.8 million), the NIESR said last week, with the largest impact set to be incurred in Wales and the northeast of England.

"The rise in interest rates to 5% will push millions of households with mortgages towards the brink of insolvency," said Max Mosley, an economist at the NIESR. "No lender would expect a household to withstand a shock of this magnitude, so the government shouldn't either."

Credit scores and grace periods

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt on Friday met with major banks and building societies to discuss the deepening mortgage crisis in the country.

Hunt said Friday that three measures had been agreed with the banks, mortgage lenders and the Financial Conduct Authority, including a temporary change to mortgage terms and a promise that consumers' credit scores would not be affected by discussions with their lender.

The minister also said that for those at risk of losing their home, lenders agreed to a 12-month grace period before there's a repossession without consent.

Houses in England.

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"These measures should offer comfort to those who are anxious about high interest rates and support for those who do get into difficulty," Hunt said.

"We won't flinch in our resolve because we know that getting rid of high inflation from our economy is the only way that we can ultimately relieve pressure on family finances and on businesses," he added.

Rachel Reeves, shadow finance minister for the opposition Labour Party, criticized what she described as the government's "chaotic approach" to the mortgage crisis.

"Unlike this government, Labour will not stand by as millions face a mortgage catastrophe made by the Tories in Downing Street," Reeves said via Twitter on Thursday.

There's a lot of mortgage pain coming, and much of it will arrive during the run-up to a 2024 election.

Torsten Bell

Chief executive of the Resolution Foundation

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded shortly after the BOE's rate hike that the government's mission to halve inflation to 5% by the end of the year had become more difficult.

"I always said this would be hard — and clearly it's got harder over the past few months — but it's important that we do do that," Sunak said Thursday at The Times CEO Summit.

"The government is going to remain steadfast in its course and stick to its plan," he added.

'There's a lot of mortgage pain coming'

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said Thursday's interest rate rise was necessary to continue the fight against stubbornly high inflation.

Official figures published ahead of the BOE's meeting showed annual inflation rose by 8.7% in May, exceeding expectations. It means consumer prices remain at a level far above the BOE's 2% target.

"We know this is hard — many people with mortgages or loans will be understandably worried about what this means for them," Bailey said. "But if we don't raise rates now, it could be worse later."

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The Resolution Foundation, a think tank focused on issues facing low- and middle-income households, has since warned that even with the latest rate rise, the problems for borrowers are far from over.

It says current market pricing suggests that households remortgaging in 2024 are poised for an annual mortgage bill rise of approximately £3,000 ($3,813) or more on average.

"There's a lot of mortgage pain coming, and much of it will arrive during the run-up to a 2024 election," said Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation.

Mortgage catastrophe brews in Britain as millions are pushed toward insolvency (2024)

FAQs

What mortgage catastrophe brews in Britain as millions are pushed toward insolvency? ›

Mortgage catastrophe brews in Britain as millions are pushed toward insolvency. The Bank of England's surprise 50 basis point hike will affect millions of homeowners as the interest rates on many mortgages in the U.K. are directly linked to the central bank's base rate.

Why is Britain's mortgage crisis? ›

What Is Fuelling a UK Mortgage Crisis. The primary cause of the downturn in mortgage growth recorded is the high lending interest rates.

What was the cause of the subprime mortgage crisis? ›

The subprime mortgage crisis was triggered by risky lending practices. When interest rates froze and the housing bubble began to collapse, borrowers couldn't afford their payments. As massive foreclosures ensued, the fallout spread to the global financial system.

What happened in the 2008 mortgage crisis? ›

Borrowers who found themselves unable to escape higher monthly payments by refinancing began to default. As more borrowers stopped making their mortgage payments, foreclosures and the supply of homes for sale increased. This placed downward pressure on housing prices, which further lowered homeowners' equity.

How was the mortgage crisis solved? ›

Between 2008 and 2014, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to nearly 0 percent. It also began a series of quantitative easing measures which added more than $4 trillion to the financial system and thus encouraged banks to loan again—to each other as well as to consumers.

Who was to blame for the mortgage crisis? ›

The real causes of the housing and financial crisis were predatory private mortgage lending and unregulated markets. The mortgage market changed significantly during the early 2000s with the growth of subprime mortgage credit, a significant amount of which found its way into excessively risky and predatory products.

What will happen to Britain's mortgages? ›

Two-year fixed mortgage rates are expected to fall from 5.03pc on average to 4.47pc in February, according to Capital Economics. They are forecast to fall below 4pc on average in September and end the year at 3.68pc. Two and five year fixes are expected to stabilise at 3.31pc and 3.6pc in June 2025 respectively.

What were the effects of the mortgage crisis? ›

The Profound Impact of Subprime Mortgage Crisis

Unemployment rates rocketed, investment plummeted, and countless businesses went under. It also exposed significant weaknesses in the global financial system, leading to extensive reforms.

Why are Britain's mortgage holders being squeezed? ›

Higher borrowing costs after the Bank of England raised interest rates 14 times since the end of 2021 have caused financial pain for some mortgage holders while benefiting savers. Nationwide said its residential mortgage arrears had increased from historically low levels but were below the industry average.

What happens to my mortgage if the economy collapses? ›

What Happens To Your Mortgage Rates & Payments? If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, then your monthly payments will remain the same, which can be beneficial in a high-inflation environment. However, if you have an adjustable-rate mortgage, expect your payments to increase.

Who made money in the subprime mortgage crisis? ›

John Paulson

The most lucrative bet against the housing bubble was made by Paulson. His hedge fund firm, Paulson & Co., made $20 billion on the trade between 2007 and 2009 driven by its bets against subprime mortgages through credit default swaps, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Who made the most from the subprime mortgage crisis? ›

Subprime mortgage crisis

Sometimes referred to as the greatest trade in history, Paulson's firm made a fortune and he earned over $4 billion personally on this trade alone. Paulson worked with Goldman Sachs to provide liquidity for low-performing home loans in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada.

Who was at fault for the 2008 housing crisis? ›

The Biggest Culprit: The Lenders

Most of the blame is on the mortgage originators or the lenders. That's because they were responsible for creating these problems. After all, the lenders were the ones who advanced loans to people with poor credit and a high risk of default.

Is the US in a recession? ›

We haven't seen a recession. To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve spiked interest rates in 2022 and 2023 at the fastest pace since the 1980s under legendary Fed chief Paul Volcker. Many feared that war on inflation would cause unemployment to surge and short-circuit the economic recovery from Covid-19.

Who predicted 2008 crash? ›

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, has bet more than $1.6 billion on a Wall Street crash.

What was the financial crisis of 1825 and the restructuring of the British financial system? ›

The difference was that in 1825-26, there was a systemic stop- page of the banking system, followed by widespread bankruptcies and unemploy- ment, while in 1931 there was abandon- ment of the gold standard, followed by imperial preference and worldwide move- ments toward autarky.

Why did the 2009 financial mortgage crisis incur? ›

The trigger for the crisis was the decline in housing prices in the United States. But the initial losses from the subprime crisis were not huge in comparison with a measure such as U.S. stock market capitalization and were greatly overshadowed by subsequent world stock market declines (see chart).

What was the 1930 mortgage crisis? ›

The National Mortgage Crisis of the 1930s was a Depression-era crisis in the United States characterized by high-default rates and soaring loan-to-value ratios in the residential housing market.

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