Manhattan property investment performance - Weimin Tan Blog (2024)

Posted by Wei Min Tan on June 5, 2023

Manhattan property investment performance - Weimin Tan Blog (1) Manhattan property investment performance - Weimin Tan Blog (2) Manhattan property investment performance - Weimin Tan Blog (3) Manhattan property investment performance - Weimin Tan Blog (4)

Manhattan property investment performance from 1999 to the most recent Q1’2023 shows that price per square foot increased from $480 to $2,119 during the 24 year period. This article analyzes property metrics related to how Manhattan condos performed from the Great Recession to Covid 2020 to the current slowdown driven by inflation and high mortgage rates.

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Property downturns: Great Recession and 2017-2019

The Great Recession of 2007-2008 hit the Manhattan condo market a year later, in 2009. When the rest of the country’s real estate market collapsed and experienced record foreclosures due to subprime mortgages, Manhattan at first appeared to be resilient. But then Lehman collapsed in late 2008. This affected a lot of high paying financial jobs and then the property market. Manhattan property only felt the effects of the recession in 2009. In 2009 and 2010, prices were down by 12 percent and 4 percent respectively. In context, the rest of the U.S. was down by 35 percent during the 2009 recession.

From 2011 to 2016, Manhattan property experienced a boom. Condo price per sqft increased 73 percent, from $1,229 in 2011 to $2,126 in 2016.

Typical of cycles, a correction started in Q2’2017 which was driven by changes in tax laws, an oversupply of high end condos and uncertainty from global trade wars. Price per sqft of condos was down 4 percent between 2017 to 2018 but went up 2 percent between 2018 to 2019. Manhattan prices usually don’t decrease by much, it was the sales volume that was down significantly.

Read about Wei Min’s style in Best Manhattan property agents and Role of a buyer’s broker.

Covid 2020

In Q1 2020, the market can be divided into pre-March 15 and after March 15. Up to March 15, it seemed like we were starting a market recovery as evidenced by a sales transactions increase of 19.2 percent compared to prior year.

But after March 15, the coronavirus hit New York City at unprecedented levels. We became the global epicenter of the virus. The entire city, apart from essential workers, was in lockdown mode. The market stopped. The real estate market reopened in June 22, 2020, and Q2’2020 market data saw the largest sales volume decline in history, number of transactions fell by almost 60 percent!

Weimin’s article,Manhattan property report

Manhattan recovers 2021 with record sales volume

The Covid bottom of the Manhattan property market was between May to July 2020, when uncertainty was highest. From November 2020 through end of 2021, the market recovered tremendously because of low mortgage rates, pent up demand from buyers who wanted to buy in 2020 but didn’t and optimism regarding reopening of the economy and Covid vaccines. People who moved out of Manhattan moved back in. Manhattan became a seller’s market with buyers competing for limited supply.

Because of work-from-home, demand trended towards larger 2 or 3 bedroom apartments as people wanted more space. 2021 saw the highest sales volume ever recorded in 32 years of tracking. For example, sales volume in Q2’2021 was a whopping 162 percent higher than a year ago. As of Q2’2021, average price per sqft for a Manhattan condo was $1,921, a 12 percent increase vs Q1’2021.

The strong sales activity from 2021 extended through the first two quarters of 2022.

Client’s 3-bedroom apartment targeting post-Covid demand for larger spaces. We rented out in 1 week.

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Currently, a buyer’s market again (mid 2022 to present)

Starting early 2022, inflation has been increasing and in response, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates. While the first half of 2022 still had robust sales activity, the second half of 2022 slowed down tremendously. The Fed’s rate hikes resulted in mortgage rates more than doubling from about 3 percent in 2021 to 7 percent in late 2022. Many buyers became renters because of the significant increase in monthly mortgage payments. Rents, already at record levels because of inflation, increased further because of demand coming from buyers.

Mortgage rates spiked from 2021 to 2022, making it a lot more expensive for buyers needing financing.

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Now, we are again in a buyer’s market but this time, favoring only cash buyers. Record high rents means rental yield is increasing for investors. For foreign buyers, the strong US dollar is making it more expensive to invest in a Manhattan property.

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Manhattan investment performance over time

The average appreciation per year during the 24 years (1999 to 2023) is about 7 percent, which is a very healthy return. Since property is often purchased with leverage, a 7 percent appreciation can be leveraged to twice or 3X that return depending on the equity invested in the property and financing used.

Rental yield

The current rental yield or cap rate for a Manhattan condominium is between 2 to 3 percent. This is based on the gross rents less common charges and property taxes as a percentage of property price. The average rent per sqft is $79 while the average rent is $5,300. For our clients’ condos, a two-bedroom gets between $8,000 to $10,000 in monthly rent while a one-bedroom gets between $4,000 to $7,000.

Manhattan’s rental yield was in the low 2 percent for many years. Because of recent inflation and rent increases, rental yields can now approach 3 percent. These are small numbers for people who are used to higher rental yields. But for Manhattan, a 3 percent rental yield is very high indeed.

While the rental yield is low, tenant credit quality and income are very high. Manhattan’s vacancy rate is also one of the lowest in the U.S., at around 2 percent.

Client’s dual exposure luxury condo with waterviews close to WTC.

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Manhattan property is for stability, not yield.

The reason investors globally invest in a Manhattan condo is for the stable appreciation and not for the rental yield. A lot of safe and liquid investments would yield more than a Manhattan condo. For example, savings accounts in certain countries, the current 2-year Treasury, or stock dividends can easily exceed 3 percent in yield.

Global investors buy Manhattan condos for portfolio diversification. Manhattan and London have the most desirable property in the world. In Manhattan, merely 10 percent of housing units are condominiums which partly explains the consistent appreciation. Seventy percent of housing inventory comprise of rental buildings and the other 20 percent are Cooperatives (which are not investor friendly).

Investors buy a Manhattan condo property for asset diversification, capital preservation and as a badge of pride in owning a piece of Manhattan.

Read ourForeign buyer guide to New York property

Manhattan property prices appreciate with inflation

The appreciation in Manhattan is driven by inflation. About 40 percent of the CPI (inflation) index is attributed to housing cost. Prices increase because of inflation (labor and material costs go up over time). In Manhattan, appreciation is not because of speculative activity. In fact, investors make up only about 30 percent of buyers in Manhattan.

When clients ask whether Manhattan is at its “peak,” I answer that as long as there is inflation, there can never be a peak. Having a ceiling to property prices is like saying prices of goods and services must have a ceiling as well. We all remember how much goods, services and properties costed 20 or 30 years ago and know what the same items cost now.

How to invest in Manhattan property for maximum profits

Key is getting the right property

While the above are market-wide trends, the investor buyer needs to select the right apartment in the right building in the right location. This is where local expertise becomes critical.

We serve global investors who are buying Manhattan condominiums to rent out and we track every condo building in Manhattan. The analysis on which is a good buy goes into the micro level details such as which apartment line is more desirable, has a view, has a “wow” factor etc. These are the details that play a very important role in the long term investment performance of a Manhattan property.

Weimin’s article, Investing in West Village

What We Do

We focus on global investors buying Manhattan condos forportfolio diversification and long term return-on-investment.
1) Identify the right buy based on objectives
2) Manage the buy process
3) Rent out the property
4) Manage tenants
5) Market the property at the eventual sale

Wei Min’s media interviews by CNBC, CNN, New York Times on the subject of investing in Manhattan property

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The Sutton, Turtle Bay, Midtown East. This Toll Brothers development only required 10 percent reservation deposit. Represented multiple buyers at the $2 million price point. Location, classic style windows and luxury finishes make this a good investment. Close to United Nations, Citigroup Center, Blackstone, Blackrock. Rented with strong cashflow from the beginning.

Weimin’s article, Pros and cons of new property launches in Manhattan

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Notes:

Article updated June 5, 2023

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Manhattan real estate agent Weimin Tan

How to choose the right investment condo to rent out

CNBC interview on U.S. price to income ratio

Manhattan property investment performance - Weimin Tan Blog (2024)

FAQs

What is the average return on real estate in Manhattan? ›

The average appreciation per year during the 24 years (1999 to 2023) is about 7 percent, which is a very healthy return. Since property is often purchased with leverage, a 7 percent appreciation can be leveraged to twice or 3X that return depending on the equity invested in the property and financing used.

What is the yield on property in Manhattan? ›

A Manhattan condo has a 2-4% rental yield after deducting common charges and real estate taxes.

How much do condos appreciate per year in NYC? ›

Typically, condos will appreciate between 2-5% per year.

Is NYC property a good investment? ›

Despite a few neighborhoods that may have noticed dips in home values, NYC real estate remains an advantageous option for long-term investors. Research has proven that if you hold onto your investment for 5 or more years, it will be rewarded with generous returns regardless of any temporary fluctuations in the market.

Are real estate prices dropping in Manhattan? ›

Median Home Price in New York City

NYC housing prices dropped starting in mid-2022, when rising mortgage rates forced many buyers out of the market. As a result, sellers had to lower listing prices (or at least be more willing to negotiate), just to get buyers in the door.

What is a good annual return on real estate investment? ›

In general, anything above 15% ROI is considered a great investment, and 10% or better is considered a good ROI on rental properties. In fact, most experts state that the average real estate ROI ranges from 9% to 10%, and average commercial real estate ROI often edges up to around 11%.

What is the value of the real estate in Manhattan? ›

Manhattan, NY Housing Market

In May 2023, the median listing home price in Manhattan, NY was $1.6M, trending up 2.1% year-over-year. The median listing home price per square foot was $1.6K. The median home sold price was $1.2M.

What is the best yield for a property? ›

A low rental yield, say between 2-4%, can suggest that the property may be overvalued. On the other hand, a property with a high rental yield (e.g. 8-10%) could imply that it is undervalued or below market value. When you have a higher rental yield, it can mean good things as a property investor.

Is the Bronx a good place to invest in real estate? ›

The New York City rental market is hotter than it's ever been, so it's no surprise that the Bronx — with a wealth of affordable and rent-regulated housing — has a strong residential and investment sales market.

What adds the most value to a condo? ›

Improvements to the kitchen often yield the highest return for condo owners. The kitchen holds many areas for improvement including cabinets, countertops, sinks, faucets, and lighting. Often considered the heart of the home, the kitchen can make or break the perceived value of a condo.

Is it worth buying a condo in New York City? ›

New York City real estate has been a good investment over the long term. For example, the average price per square foot of a Manhattan condo rose 5% compounded annually over the last 15 years. Considering, one could leverage a purchase with a mortgage, the yield would multiply.

What is the cap rate for condos in Manhattan? ›

Conversely, in Brooklyn (5.89%), Northern Manhattan (6.19%) and Queens (6.23%), average cap rates rose from 4.85%, 4.92% and 5.09% respectively, while Manhattan's average cap rate experienced only a slight increase from 4.26% to 4.43%.

Is it a good time to buy in Manhattan? ›

Yes, it's a good time to buy Manhattan property now if you are a cash buyer and especially if you plan to rent out the property. Properties on the market are very negotiable while rents are at record levels. The price per sqft trend for Manhattan condos is stable appreciation in the long run.

What is the real estate trend in New York in 2023? ›

Market Forecast for 2023

The New York State housing market is likely to continue struggling in 2023 due to the low inventory of homes and rising mortgage interest rates. However, as the interest rates start to decline, they can increase demand for real estate and raise home prices.

What is the real estate forecast for NYC 2023? ›

Average Home Prices: The average median home price in New York is $506,200, down by 6.7% YoY. In 2023, experts predict the median sale price growth to drop by roughly 4%, the first annual drop since 2012. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 100.0%, with a decline of 1.2 pt YoY as of April 2023.

Will 2023 be a good time to buy a house? ›

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

Why is the NYC rental market so bad right now? ›

The pandemic caused an exodus of such proportions that building owners were forced to cut rents to their lowest levels since the bad old days of 2011.

What is happening to Manhattan real estate? ›

The drop in sales and prices follows a 29% decline in the fourth quarter, and suggests that the nation's largest real estate market is correcting after a post-pandemic boom in prices and demand.

What is the 2 rule in real estate? ›

2% Rule. The 2% rule is the same as the 1% rule – it just uses a different number. The 2% rule states that the monthly rent for an investment property should be equal to or no less than 2% of the purchase price. Here's an example of the 2% rule for a home with the purchase price of $150,000: $150,000 x 0.02 = $3,000.

Where is the highest ROI in real estate? ›

What state has the highest ROI on real estate? The state with the highest one-year ROI on residential single-family homes is Arizona with 27.42 percent, according to iPropertyManagement data. The next two highest states are Utah with 27.05 percent and Idaho with 27.02 percent.

What state has the highest ROI for real estate? ›

Investors probably need no explanation why and convincing that Florida tops the list of the best states for the long term rental investment strategy. Our nationwide rental market analysis shows that, on average, you can expect the highest rate of return in the Sunshine State.

Who owns most of the property in Manhattan? ›

To the surprise of nobody, the City of New York is the biggest property owner in the five boroughs — with a massive 362.1 million square feet to its name, according to TRD's analysis. Think 1 Police Plaza, Stuyvesant High School and the New York Public Library building on Fifth Avenue.

Is Manhattan real estate rebounding? ›

Manhattan real estate posted its best year ever, rebounding from the pandemic with $30 billion in sales, according to real estate reports. The strength shows no signs of slowing in 2022, with sales topping $6.7 billion in the last quarter, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman.

Why is Manhattan real estate so valuable? ›

There are many reasons why everything is expensive in New York City. Some of the key factors include the high demand for housing, high taxes, high transportation costs, and the city's status as a global economic and cultural hub.

Which city has highest rental yield? ›

One of the hottest residential markets, Bengaluru,... more. According to a Bloomberg report, landlords in Bengaluru are now charging highest proportion of their property's value as rent.

Is 4% yield good? ›

A low yield means you won't make a great return (and your money is better spent elsewhere), while a higher yield above 6% suggests a good investment.

How do you know if a property is a good investment? ›

The One-Percent Rule

It's a tool that you can use to determine if a property deserves a closer look. All the one-percent rule says is that a property should rent for one-percent or more of its total upfront cost. For example: A property that costs $100,000 should rent for at least $1,000 per month.

Is buying in Harlem a good investment? ›

The vast majority of city-wide investments, including prior commitments from big tech, are still moving ahead, undeterred. As it stood at the beginning of 2020, even as the year took a decidedly different turn than everyone expected, Harlem real estate remains an excellent investment.

Is Tribeca a good investment? ›

Investing in Tribeca real estate is a great way to diversify assets for many of our international clients. Tribeca is a well loved neighborhood in Manhattan by both buyers and renters. The high demand is driven by the abundance of restaurants, low rise buildings, cobblestone streets and general neighborhood vibe.

Do the rich invest in real estate? ›

Ultra-wealthy individuals invest in such assets as private and commercial real estate, land, gold, and even artwork. Real estate continues to be a popular asset class in their portfolios to balance out the volatility of stocks.

Are higher floor condos worth more? ›

Higher condos get more resale value

From an investment perspective, higher condos are always better as they give the most return on the value. Investors are more interested in buying condos on a higher floor as they are aware of its demand in the market.

Why I prefer a condo over a house? ›

Condo pros

Less maintenance – If you own a house, all of the upkeep of the property falls on you. If you don't want to worry about maintenance as much, a condo might be a better fit. More perks – Unlike a house, many condo communities come with amenities like a pool or playground, and features like security systems.

What gives a house the most value? ›

Home Improvements That Add Value
  • Kitchen Improvements. If adding value to your home is the goal, the kitchen is likely the place to start. ...
  • Bathrooms Improvements. Updated bathrooms are key for adding value to your home. ...
  • Lighting Improvements. ...
  • Energy Efficiency Improvements. ...
  • Curb Appeal Improvements.
Mar 24, 2020

What are the cons of owning a condo in NYC? ›

In addition to monthly mortgage payments, taxes, and insurance, condos will also charge a monthly fee to unit owners for the maintenance, expenses, insurance, and other general upkeep of the building. HOA fees can and will go up periodically as the cost of maintenance and building expenses go up.

Is a coop or condo better in NYC? ›

Condo prices are higher than co-ops, but co-ops require a larger downpayment, higher monthly fees, and a lengthy approval process. Condos generally allow subletting of the apartment, while only some co-ops allow subletting, and the rules are complex.

Why are Manhattan condo fees so high? ›

Why are condo common charges so high in New York City? Condo common charges—covering operating expenses like staff, repairs, amenities, property management and insurance—are high partly because the cost of doing business in New York City is high.

Is 6% cap rate good on investment property? ›

Market analysts say an ideal cap rate is between five and 10 percent; the exact number will depend on the property type and location. In comparison, a cap rate lower than five percent denotes lesser risk but a more extended period to recover an investment.

What is a good cap rate in NYC? ›

A “good” cap rate will usually hover around 4% or so for most real estate properties – the above example just shows you how to use the formula. For instance, an actual property purchase might be something closer to: a property priced at $1 million.

Is Manhattan overpriced? ›

The cost of living in Manhattan, NY is 75% higher than the state average and 128% higher than the national average. Manhattan, NY housing is 384% more expensive than the U.S average, while utilities are about 3% pricier.

What is the cheapest month to move to Manhattan? ›

Given all that, February is likely the best and cheapest time to move to or within NYC.
  • Mover rates will be at their lowest during the winter months.
  • New York City apartment rental prices and broker fees tend to be less expensive in the winter.
Apr 26, 2023

Is living in Manhattan stressful? ›

To the surprise of just about nobody. It's an unofficial law of the New York land: if you're going to live here, you're going to have to deal with a modicum of stress—and a new study by research firm William Russell has now confirmed that.

Is 2023 a good time to invest in real estate? ›

Despite what some may think, 2023 is still a good year to invest in real estate, thanks to advantages like long-term appreciation, steady rental income, and the opportunity to hedge against inflation. Mortgage rates are expected to decline, but the housing market is likely to remain competitive due to low supply.

Will NYC rents drop in 2023? ›

With all the predictions for the coming year, here's one most New Yorkers will be thrilled to hear: New York City rent prices are expected to drop in 2023. All that remains to be seen is when those price decreases occur and by how much.

Will US home prices drop in 2023? ›

Although home prices are expected to improve in the second half of the year, the California median home price is projected to decrease by 5.6 percent to $776,600 in 2023, down from the median price of $822,300 recorded in 2022.

What are the real estate challenges in 2023? ›

Top 10 Issues Affecting Real Estate 2022-2023
  • Inflation and Interest Rates.
  • Geopolitical Risk.
  • Hybrid Work.
  • Supply Chain Disruption.
  • Energy.
  • Labor Shortage Strain.
  • The Great Housing Imbalance.
  • Regulatory Uncertainty.

Will NYC real estate rebound? ›

This trend is projected to keep progressing through 2023 as long as interest rates stay low and the economy continues its rebound from coronavirus-related downturns. With these elements at work, it appears that NYC real estate will completely recover from this challenging time soon.

Is NYC real estate a good investment? ›

NYC real estate investment has a track record of being one of the best in the nation. That is why it is no surprise that despite being an expensive real estate market, a lot of people want to buy investment properties in NYC.

What is a typical rate of return for real estate? ›

Average Returns on Real Estate Investments

As you can see, there's a lot that goes into real estate investment returns. But if you want to know the average annualized returns of long-term real estate investments, it's 10.3%. That's about the same as what the stock market returns over the long run.

What is the typical return range on real estate? ›

A “good” ROI is highly subjective because it largely depends on how risk-tolerant a particular investor is. But as a rule of thumb, most real estate investors aim for ROIs above 10%.

What is the overall rate of return in real estate? ›

Your ROI for a rental property can then be calculated with this formula: ROI = (annual operating costs – annual rental income) / mortgage value (i.e., the amount that still needs to be paid on the mortgage loan).

Is 5% return on real estate investment good? ›

Finding the right rental property

It all boils down to your return on investment (ROI). A good ROI for a rental property is typically more than 10%, but 5%–10% can also be acceptable. But the ROI may be lower in the first year, due to the upfront costs of buying a home.

What is an a reasonable rate of return on an investment property? ›

Now that you know how to calculate your cash on cash return, you are probably wondering “what is a good rate of return on rental property on a mortgage financed rental property?” Investors consider anything between 8% and 12% a good rate of return on rental property that is financed by a mortgage.

Does real estate outperform stocks? ›

Although stock market returns generally outperform real estate investments by a significant amount over the long run, investors have to pay a price in the form of volatility.

Is 7% a good IRR? ›

The internal rate of return (IRR) is a metric used to measure the return on a real estate investment considering the time value of money. It factors in cash inflows and outflows, and it is important when comparing real estate investment opportunities. A good IRR in real estate is around 18-20%.

What state has the best ROI? ›

1. Wyoming: 203% 5-year ROI on College. Wyoming has some of the highest wages for high school graduates: $31,936 a year, on average. This results in a 43 percent increase in pay for earning a bachelor's degree.

What is a reasonable rate of return? ›

A good return on investment is generally considered to be about 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, and adjusting for inflation.

What is the average real return? ›

An average return is calculated the same way that a simple average is calculated for any set of numbers. The numbers are added together into a single sum, then the sum is divided by the count of the numbers in the set.

Is it a good idea to invest in real estate? ›

The benefits of investing in real estate are numerous. With well-chosen assets, investors can enjoy predictable cash flow, excellent returns, tax advantages, and diversification—and it's possible to leverage real estate to build wealth.

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