The median home price in New York was $492,400 in September 2023. Quite close to the last year’s$491,900.
Yet 46.2% of homes sold for more than the list price in the Empire State. Shocking, eh? Given that the number of homes listed on the market declined by 15.1% YoY from 59,592 to 50,571 homes.
There are only 3 months of supply left! Does the scarcity of houses make New York a seller’s market? Let’s look at the facts.
Syracuse sold for a median sale price of $166,500 in September, up to a14.83%increase year-over-year. Homes in Rochester sold for a median sale price of $160,000, a13.48%increase year-over-year. There were a few markets, especially New York City where prices declined year-over-year.
Interest rates are at record highs, with few home buyers. But the inventory is so low that46.20% of homes sold above the list price!
- If you are a home buyer:You can avoid bidding wars and availseller concessionsif you buy a home now. The 8.5% interest rate and mortgage payments are significant, but rates are unlikely to drop in the next few months. If they do, you canrefi.
- If you are a home seller:You can lock in New York’s high home prices. The scarcity of homes in NY makes it a seller’s market. Homes listed on MLS sell faster and for17.5%more than off-MLS homes. That could be thousands of dollars in additional proceeds if you sell via Houzeo.
The current New York real estate market statistics reflect the national trendof high demand and low supply.Despite the strong housing demand, home sales tanked. The property prices in New York have increased regardless.
So, How is the Real Estate Market in New York?
Sluggish! Home values in New York rose by4.69%in the last 5 years, at an average of ~$700,000.
But, home sales decreased by 20.78% in September 2023 YoY. Maybe due to the mortgage rate climbing to a two-decade high of nearly 8%! The number of houses for sale in NY was50,571in the month, 15.14% less than in 2022. New York’s housing market isbearish.
The decrease in home sales can be attributed tonot having enough properties in the Empire State. The months of supply is 3 months, which makes NY a seller’s market. So, if you want tosell a New York property, now is the right time to list it on MLS.
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New YorkReal Estate Market Statistics
- Average Home Prices:The average median home price in New York is$492,400, up by 0.1% YoY. In 2024, the median sale price will keep increasing marginally due to NY’s tight inventory. The sale-to-list price ratio is at101.90%, with an increase of 0.9 pt YoY compared to September 2022.
- Home Sales:As per September 2023 data, home sales decreased by 20.78% YoY! In September 2023, only 11,530 homes were sold, down from 14,555 in September 2022.
- Average Rent Prices:Rental costs vary statewide. An average tenant in Buffalo pays$1,289, while a person living in Rochester pays$896.
- Median Days on Market:The median days on the market for homes for sale was32days, up 3 days YoY.
- Pending Sales:The number of homes for sale declined by 15.1% YoY compared to 2022. Currently, there are 50,571homes for sale in New York.
- Months of Supply:The average month of supply is 3 months. NY’s demand can’t be satiated with the low supply. NY’s house scarcity is worse than the nationalhousing market.
New YorkHousing Market Predictions 2024
New Yorkers have survived the shockwaves of skyrocketing mortgage rates and rising home prices of 2023. Here’s what we predict for New York’s housing market:
- Home Sellers Will Return to the Market in 2024:Sellers who chose the sidelines in 2023 willcome back. Especially those who can’t avoid new jobs or want to move to acheap place. Whitney, the analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis accurately, has forecasted thatbaby boomers looking to downsizewill also add up to 30 million housing units. Yowaza!
- Mortgage Interest Rates Will Stabilize by the 2nd Half of 2024:Mortgage rates hit7.79%in October 2023, the highest level in 23 years. However, the rate dropped to7.35%in November due to the softening labor market and slowing economy. Even the annual inflation rate went from 3.7% to3.2%. We think the rates will remainabove 6%, but they will stabilize in the second half.
- The Number of Home Buyers Will Rise:Thehistorically high interest ratesaverted buyers in 2023. Butmortgage demand roseafter the interest rates lowered to 7.35% in November. The easing inflation and stabilizing rates will bring back house hunters.
- Home Prices Will Continue to Rise:Home prices rose steadily in the top metros across NY YoY, reaching $492K in September 2023. Experts predict home prices will continue toriseuntil the low supply-high demand dynamic changes.
- New Home Constructions Sales Will Increase:12.3%of homes purchased in September were new homes, the highest since 2022. Home builders offered $30,000 worth ofconcessions to attract buyersin 2023. We think builders and sellers will compete for buyers in 2024.
- iBuyers Will Continue to Make Lowball Offers:iBuyers offered104.1%of market value in 2021. They offered86%in 2022 and around 70% in 2023. Opendoor and Offerpad havelost billions of dollarsin 2023. As they struggle to survive, they will make lowball offers.
Bonus Prediction: Buyer Broker Commissions Will Be Negotiable!
In a shocking turn of events, thejury in Missouri awarded more than $5 billion in damagesto the Sitzer-Burnett plaintiffs. This motivated nationwide home sellers to file grievances against NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule.
NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule or Participation Rule states that listing brokers must offer competitive compensation to buyer agents if they want to list properties on a NAR-affiliated MLS.
Sitzer/Burnett v. NAR
The Bombshell Lawsuit that Could End Buyer Agent Commissions
Lawsuits likeMoehrl,Gibson,Batton,Nosalek, andBatton 2challenge the Participation Rule. They accuse NAR and other top real estate companies of colluding and conspiring to keep agent commissions high.
If the jury also finds the defendants guilty in these cases, buyer agent compensation may change. Buyer agents may become obsolete by 2025! Phew.
While buyer agents are unlikely to be obsolete in 2024, they may be open to negotiating commissions. That’s probably how they will still have some skin in the game.
When Will the Housing Market Crash in New York?
Even though Americans are moving out of the Empire State, a housing market crash in New York isunlikely.
New York stands as the 4th cleanest city in the US, with a cleanliness score of 5.86 out of 10. New York’s economic strength further bolsters its stability. With an unemployment rate of just4.2%as of September 2023, New York boasts a thriving job market.
Additionally, New York ranks17thin the US in terms of having an affordable average cost of living of $107,724. The median household income is$127,100, making it an enticing destination for homebuyers.
The state has a population of ~19.7 million. A consistent population growth rate of0.37%in 2023, coupled with its diversity, creates a solid foundation for continued housing demand. So, it is unlikely that New York’s housing market will crash anytime soon.
2024: Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
2024 will be a terrific market for sellers. (And buyers, too!)
Home prices in New York are rising and will continue to rise till the supply-demand dynamic changes. The number of houses for sale in NY was 50,571 in September 2023. There is very limited inventory to satiate the demand from house hunters. This also makes it thebest time to sell a house in New York.
After the mortgage rate plummeted from a two-decade-high rate of 8% to7.35%in November, new listings rose. This shows that those who refused to sell due tomortgage rate lockare finally acclimatizing to 7% rates. In the coming Spring of 2024, more homeowners will follow suit andlistproperties on New York MLS.
As home listings in New York increase, home shoppers hugging the sidelines will also return. The recentuptick in mortgage applicationsshows that buyers are returning.
House hunters who could not find affordable homes in 2023 will also start shopping in 2024. The demand for New York houses will increase – and that’s whysellers may be able to dominate the market.
However, new builds will compete for attention from buyers. Home builders have persuaded buyers to buy new construction homes withmortgage buydownsworth $30K in 2023! Builders will continue offering concessions in 2024, and home sellers may have to wage wars against them.
Listings of new constructions, baby boomers looking to downsize, and desperate home sellers will flood the market in 2024. Theproperties for sale in New York will increase. So, whether you are looking for acondoin Newark or seeking to live in aco-op, you will find your dream home next spring.
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Disclaimer:This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation. Houzeo doesn’t provide any legal or financial advice. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Houzeo Corp., its affiliates, or its employees. However, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision.
Frequently Asked Questions About New YorkReal Estate Market
When will the housing market crash in New York?
Not for the next few years. New York's housing market will not crash in 2024. Despite 2023's skyrocketing interest payments and soaring home prices, New Yorkers have managed to keep the market afloat.
What are the real estate housing market 2024 predictions for New York?
2024 will be a stellar market for New Yorkers. Here's our 2024 forecast for New York housing market are: (1) Home sellers will return to the market come Spring 2024. (2) Number of houses for sale will increase (3) Property prices in New York will increase marginally (4) Mortgage rates will stabilize in the latter half of 2024 (5) iBuyers will buy homes for lower than their fair market value. (6) Buyer agent commissions will be negotiable!
Are home prices dropping in New York?
Nada. The property prices in New York were up by 0.1% YoY in September 2023. In the past five years, home prices have increased by 4.69%. That's huge! Until the scarcity of properties for sale subsides, house prices in NY will not drop.
Is it a good time to buy a house in New York?
Yes! Currently, there are very few buyers in the market compared to the supply of homes in New York. The soaring interest rates has kept buyers at bay, so you can avoid bidding wars. As the mortgage rate stabilizes in 2024, more buyers will return, so we'd recommend you to buy a house now. If mortgage payments burn a hole in your pocket, you can always refinance.
» Best Time to Buy a House in New York: Find out the best time to buy a New York property & plan your finances accordingly.
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