Global beef production is forecast to decrease slightly in 2023. Beef production decreases in the U.S. and European Union will more than offset increasing beef production in Australia and modest increases in Mexico and India. Changes in beef production and consumption will impact global beef exports and imports in the coming year.
Brazil is expected to remain the largest beef exporter with beef production increasing slightly in 2023. Brazil beef exports are limited by decreased beef imports in China. Beef exports from Brazil are significantly higher than the next three exporters. Australia, after drought in recent years decreased cattle numbers and beef production, is now in rebuilding mode. Cattle prices are falling from historically high levels in Australia and beef exports are forecast to increase, helping Australia regain the number two spot. The U.S., number two beef exporting country in 2022 with record or near-record exports, will likely see exports decrease with declining beef production, higher beef prices and a continued strong dollar. The U.S. will likely drop to fourth place, a position it has frequently occupied in recent year. India is the remaining top four beef exporter with steady exports expected in 2023. India exports large quantities of water buffalo meat (carabeef) to low-end markets in Indonesia and Malaysia. 
China/Hong Kong is the largest beef importing country in the world since 2018 and will be the largest by a factor of two in 2023. Prior to the rapid growth in China/HK imports in recent years, the U.S was the largest beef importing country for many years. Beef imports in China/KH may decrease in 2023 for the first time ever as the country struggles with a recession and continued zero-Covid controls. The U.S. may see beef imports increase modestly as beef production falls and supplies of processing beef drop sharply. Rising U.S. beef prices and the strong dollar will further attract beef into the U.S. from other markets. The number three and four beef import markets, Japan and South Korea, are expected to see minor increases in beef imports in 2023.
I'm an agricultural economist with a specialization in global livestock production and trade, particularly in the beef industry. My expertise stems from years of dedicated research, data analysis, and hands-on experience working with various stakeholders in the field. I've closely monitored trends, observed market dynamics, and participated in academic and industry discussions to maintain an up-to-date understanding of the intricate workings of the global beef market.
Now, delving into the details of the article, there are several key concepts and trends that warrant attention:
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Global Beef Production Forecast for 2023:
- The forecast indicates a slight decrease in global beef production in 2023.
- Notable changes are expected in the U.S., European Union, Australia, Mexico, and India.
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Brazil as the Largest Beef Exporter:
- Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the largest beef exporter, with a slight increase in production.
- However, Brazil's beef exports are limited by reduced imports in China.
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Australia's Rebuilding Mode:
- Australia, facing previous challenges like drought, is now in a phase of rebuilding its cattle numbers and beef production.
- Falling cattle prices and increased beef exports are anticipated as Australia aims to regain the second position.
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U.S. Beef Export Decline:
- The U.S., previously the second-largest beef exporter, is expected to see a decline in exports due to decreasing production, higher beef prices, and a strong dollar.
- This may lead the U.S. to drop to the fourth position, a shift from its recent standings.
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India's Role as a Beef Exporter:
- India is a significant player among the top four beef exporters, with steady exports expected in 2023.
- India's exports mainly consist of water buffalo meat (carabeef), targeting low-end markets in Indonesia and Malaysia.
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China/Hong Kong as the Largest Beef Importer:
- China/Hong Kong has been the largest beef importing country since 2018, and this dominance is expected to continue in 2023.
- However, there might be a potential decrease in beef imports in 2023 due to economic challenges and zero-Covid controls.
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Shift in U.S. Beef Imports:
- The U.S. may experience a modest increase in beef imports as domestic production falls and processing beef supplies decline.
- Rising U.S. beef prices and a strong dollar are likely to attract more beef from international markets.
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Japan and South Korea's Beef Import Trends:
- Japan and South Korea, the third and fourth-largest beef import markets, are anticipated to see minor increases in beef imports in 2023.
In summary, the dynamics of global beef production, export, and import markets are multifaceted, influenced by factors ranging from domestic production challenges to international trade dynamics. These trends have significant implications for ranchers, traders, and policymakers involved in the beef industry.
