An almost crazy bitcoin price prediction up to the year 2030 and 21 facts you should know about it.
Larry Fink is the head of the world’s largest asset manager Blackrock. In 2017, he said: “Bitcoin just shows how big the demand for money laundering is in the world.”
Today, Fink sounds a little different: “Bitcoin is digital gold”, “I believe in it very strongly”, “Bitcoin is a flight to safety”.
Fink is not the only megaplayer from the traditional corner of the financial industry to have fundamentally changed his mind about Bitcoin in recent years. And with the approval of various ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (you can read more about what these are here), the mother of all cryptocurrencies has finally shed its reputation as a geek gimmick. That’s why knowledge about Bitcoin is now part of a good general knowledge.
1. How long has Bitcoin been around?
This is a bit of a definitional matter. Bitcoin’s so-called whitepaper, a written guide, was first sent out to a mailing list in 2008. The implementation of this, the actual network, went online on January 3, 2009.
2. How much did a Bitcoin cost back then?
Bitcoin did not yet have an actual value at the time. The first real transaction was the purchase of two pizzas from Laszlo Hanyecz for 10,000 Bitcoin. Today (as of February 13, 2024), these would be worth 500 million.
3. Who invented Bitcoin?
Someone under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.
It is still unclear whether this is an individual or a group. Since the start of the project, Nakamoto has emphasized that his anonymity is of the utmost importance.
Nakamoto sent the last sign of life on April 26, 2011 with an email to the developer Gavin Andresen. The exact content of this is disputed. In it, Nakamoto is said to have written that “the project is in good hands” and: “I am now moving on to other things”. Since then, there have been no more signs of life from the Bitcoin inventor.
The main suspects of having been Satoshi Nakamoto are the IT forensic expert Dave Kleiman, the software developer Hal Finney and the hacker Len Sassaman. Sassaman died in 2011, Kleiman in 2013 and Finney in 2014. The British computer scientist Nick Szabo is also one of the main suspects. This is because his writing style is similar to that of Nakamoto.
However, Craig Steven Wright‘s claim that he is the legendary inventor of Bitcoin is not very credible. A trial is currently taking place in London with the aim of exposing Wright as a liar.
4. Wie viele Bitcoin gibt es?
There are currently around 19.6 Mio Bitcoins. The maximum number is limited to 21 million. This means that 93.46 percent of all bitcoins have already been produced.
5. But you keep reading about lost Bitcoins? How many actually still exist?
All previously mined bitcoins continue to exist on the blockchain. The question is how many of them people can still access and how many have lost their access keys forever. It is not known exactly. It is estimated that up to 30 percent of all bitcoins, or around 6 million bitcoins, are stashed in wallets that can no longer be accessed.
6. Is a Bitcoin divisible?
The US Dollar has cents and Bitcoin has satoshis. But while one cent is one hundredth of an USD (0.01 USD), one satoshi is one hundred millionth of a Bitcoin (0.00000001).
7. Does this mean that you can also buy less than 1 Bitcoin?
Yes.
The smallest unit of Satoshi is known colloquially as Sat, but it is rarely worth buying, as the transaction fees in the Bitcoin network currently amount to several US Dollars. There are efforts to ensure that, similar to gold, where the standard measure is not the kilo but the troy ounce, the sat price and no longer the Bitcoin price should be discussed in future.
8. How are Bitcoins “produced”?
Bitcoins are not “produced”, they are mined. Computers specifically designed for this purpose, so-called ASIC miners, are used for this purpose. They also form the nodes in the network. Together they validate the transactions, but compete with each other when it comes to solving a kind of complex mathematical task. Whoever is the first to do so is allowed to add the next (data) block to the Bitcoin blockchain. The reward for this is bitcoins – currently 6.25. On average, a new block is added to the Bitcoin blockchain every 10 minutes. This means that around 900 Bitcoins are mined every day. On 13.2.2024, a so-called “halving” took place. From this date, the reward is halved to 3,125 bitcoins per block.
9. Can I mine Bitcoins myself?
Yes, theoretically any computer will do.
The question is whether it’s worth it. The mining business is now highly professionalized and various mining companies operate huge warehouses full of ASIC miners. The best ones cost well over 1000 dollars and are usually sold out. Then there are the operating costs, i.e. electricity costs. Only those who have access to extremely cheap electricity can mine profitably.
10. How much energy does the system need?
Because the Bitcoin network spans the entire world and the equipment used for mining is not recorded, it is not possible to give a precise figure for electricity consumption. The estimate by Cambridge University (CBECI) has become established as a benchmark. This currently assumes an electricity consumption of 20 GW. Around 14 modern nuclear power plants would be needed to cover this electricity consumption.
11. Why the High power consumption?
In order to manipulate a blockchain, a potential intruder must control the majority of the associated nodes (including their power consumption). The more nodes Bitcoin has, the more energy the system requires, the more secure it becomes. Electricity is to the Bitcoin network what thick concrete walls are to banks and gold vaults.
12. What arguments do Bitcoin fans use to counter the energy argument?
On the one hand, there is the aforementioned security argument – the more energy Bitcoin requires, the more secure it becomes. On the other hand, it is pointed out that the mining of gold in particular, or the maintenance of the traditional financial system, consumes even greater amounts of energy. Or that unused devices in standby mode in the USA require more electricity. But the arguments, which are not always easy to understand, go further:
- Thanks to Bitcoin, it is possible to use non-profitable energy sources.
- Bitcoin mining can increase grid stability.
- Bitcoin mining is only profitable with very low electricity prices. Electricity prices that can generally only be achieved with renewables (without subsidies).
- Bitcoin can therefore be seen as a promoter of renewables.
13. What are the advantages of Bitcoin?
The list of advantages of Bitcoin is long. Here are the most important points, but by no means all of them:
- Bitcoin is so decentralized that there is no one who could manipulate or shut down the system. No individual, no company and no state.
- There is only a limited number. While central banks can print more and more money in the respective national currency, the number of Bitcoin is limited.
- Transactions do not go through intermediaries (such as banks), but directly from sender to recipient.
- Bitcoin transactions also work outside office hours, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. And it is relatively inexpensive (currently around 8 francs per transaction).
- Anyone (with an Internet connection) can participate in the system, no one is excluded.
- Bitcoin offers people in countries with unstable currencies a simple alternative.
14. Who controls Bitcoin?
Nobody.
There is no central authority that has the power to force through changes to Bitcoin’s code. If that were the case, Bitcoin would become obsolete. A lack of decentralization is also the accusation made by many Bitcoiners against other cryptocurrencies.
The power in the Bitcoin system is distributed to the individual nodes, which implement the proposals of the core developers – or not. Innovations only become active when they are accepted / implemented by the majority of nodes.
15. Has Bitcoin already been hacked once?
No.
So far, only private individuals or organizations that stored their access keys in an insecure way – for example in an email or stored in digital form in the cloud – have been hacked. Bitcoin’s network has never been hacked – and with increasing power consumption, this is becoming increasingly impossible.
16. When will the last Bitcoin be mined?
Approximately in the year 2140
17. What happens then? Then the miners shut down their nodes and the system collapses.
No.
Miners are already paid for validating transactions. With the abolition of the Bitcoin reward per block, this will then be their main source of income.
18. Who owns the most bitcoins?
The owners of many large wallets are not known. Satoshi Nakamoto is said to own around 1.1 million Bitcoins spread over 22,000 addresses. However, these have not moved for years.
The Winklevoss brothers are said to be privately in possession of 70,000 Bitcoins, Tim Draper hoards at least 30,000 and Michael Saylor privately at least 17,700.
Among the known corporate investors, Microstrategy is in the lead with 190,000 Bitcoins. The software company is sitting on billions in profits thanks to its enormous investment.
19. Why is it important that I manage my bitcoins myself?
“Not your keys, not your coins” is a much-quoted saying in the Bitcoin scene. It refers to the possibility of self-administration. Cases such as the Mr. Gox hack, the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange and many other incidents show that only those who control the access keys to their own wallet can be sure that their bitcoins will not suddenly disappear one day.
20. Can Bitcoin still be banned now?
Yes.
China banned cryptocurrency not too long ago. However, there are rumours that legalization is being seriously considered. Bitcoin ETFs are expected to be approved on the Hong Kong stock exchange this summer.
It is unlikely that the USA will take steps in this direction once the ETFs have been approved. The fact is: Bitcoin can be banned, but it can hardly be prevented. The network spans the globe and has established itself.
21. How high will Bitcoin go, what is the Bitcoin Price Prediction?
We have reached the realm of speculation and thus the funny end. Nobody knows what will happen with Bitcoin, what is the Bircoin Price Prediction. A person’s credibility decreases with the vehemence with which they defend their forecast.
On the other hand, price forecasts for Bitcoin are always ridiculous – until they come true. If we could have even guessed the current value of Bitcoin, we would all have invested years ago. 50,000 dollars, predicted 10 years ago, would have generated a pitying smile at best and the bird gesture in normal circ*mstances. The unbelievable is part of the speculative nature of investments.
So.
Let’s start with the extreme case. Jurrien Timmer is “Director of Global Macro” at Fidelity, the established global financial services provider and Bitcoin ETF provider. His statement, which is always a talking point, is based on the Metcalfe’s law. This states that the value of a network grows exponentially with linear growth in the number of users. In combination with his own models, Timmer attests that Bitcoin has the potential to reach the value of cough one billion dollars in 2038, i.e. in 14 years.
One million per coin is already possible in 2030. Fidelity shares the latter forecast with Ark Invest (1.5 million by 2030) and Michael Saylor (one million in the next few years).
Of course, it is also possible to be more modest. A third of investors who took part in a Deutsche Bank survey are even more pessimistic. This third believes that Bitcoin will fall again to around 20,000 dollars by the end of 2024.
That says it all when it comes to speculation. Anything between 0 and a billion can be found. It will happen as it always does: someone will be right – and everyone else will pretend to be.
