Florida Housing Market Predictions 2023 (2024)

FAQs

Florida Housing Market Predictions 2023? ›

Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Florida is $400,000, up by 3.2% YoY. In 2023, experts predict the median sale price growth to drop by roughly 4%, the first annual drop since 2012. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 97.1%, with a decline of 3.0 pt YoY as of March 2023.

By February 29th, 2024, home values are expected to increase by 1.7%. Overall, the Florida housing market is likely to remain strong in 2023, with continued demand for homes and steady price growth.

Sellers advantage in smaller, more affordable markets

Concentrated in the East Coast, the top sellers' markets are forecast to see the strongest growth in home sales and listing prices in 2023.

While there are signs of a slowdown in the housing market's year-over-year growth rate, the overall data and forecasts suggest that a crash is unlikely in 2023.

Over the past few years, home prices in Florida have skyrocketed. Per Redfin data, in the middle of 2020, the median sale price was $275,600 — by April 2023, that figure had jumped to $400,800. The state remains one of the top markets people move to, and its increasing population will likely keep the market robust.

Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Florida is $400,000, up by 3.2% YoY. In 2023, experts predict the median sale price growth to drop by roughly 4%, the first annual drop since 2012. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 97.1%, with a decline of 3.0 pt YoY as of March 2023.

At the end of 2022, the Florida Business Observer reported that home sales had fallen by nearly 40% in the publication's home state. At a glance, that puts Florida on par with the rapidly cooling real estate market in the country as a whole.

A nearly 14,000-member Facebook group for people moving out of Florida has cited severe weather, low wages, crowded beaches, changing politics, and steep housing prices as reasons people left.

Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors expect mortgage rates to drop through the first quarter of 2024, by half a percentage point to about nine-tenths of a percentage point. Figures are the predicted quarterly average rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

The median sale price for a single-family home in the state as of April 2023 is $410,000, according to Florida Realtors — and in the Miami area it's a much higher $585,000. By comparison, the nationwide median sale price is $388,800.

Will 2024 be a good time to buy a house? ›

With mortgage rates declining faster than expected, home prices are likely to remain mostly flat throughout 2024. This will be good news for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for a good time to enter the market.

“[W]ith the rate of inflation decelerating rates should gently decline over the course of 2023.” Fannie Mae. 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.4% for Q2 2023, according to the May Housing Forecast. National Association of Realtors (NAR).

In my opinion, real estate is one intelligent option to consider in 2023, as it often has excellent returns, tax advantages and provides diversification even in the face of a challenging economic climate. Real estate also has the potential to compound your investment.

Florida Housing Market Overview

Looking at the five-year period from September 2017 to September 2022, the median sale price in Florida peaked in May 2022 at $410,900; as of September 2022, the median sale price is down to $392,500.

Florida is one of the most expensive states for housing, and Miami is the least affordable city in the country, according to a report. High demand, short supply, increased migration trends since the pandemic and exploding mortgage rates, make for a pricey combination.

Florida is expensive because of its popularity among retirees and tourists. Retirees often have disposable income and spend it on activities like golfing, fishing, and boating. Additionally, housing, food, and healthcare costs are higher in Florida compared to other states.

If you need to be occupying your home by a certain date to save on rent, it's a much better deal to close at the end of the previous month (for example, January 30) instead of the beginning of the current month (February 1).

Data by Zumper shows rent prices are down in most Florida cities except for the state's capitol, Tallahassee. Limited inventory during the pandemic pushed home prices up. Although inflation can be blamed for the increase in rental and mortgage costs, the price increases also boosted national inflation levels.

This value is seasonally adjusted and only includes the middle price tier of homes. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metro home values have gone up 22.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.8% by December 2023. Miami-Dade County home values have gone up 14.5% over the past year.

According to Florida law, a buyer or seller is able to terminate a residential real estate contract and walk away from the deal without penalty by seeking rescission. Rescinding a real estate contract means the contract is considered to have no force and effect from the beginning or that the contract is canceled.

Can you force the sale of a house in Florida? ›

Florida law entitles property owners to bring an action for Partition and force a sale. This can be done at a private or public auction. Florida law recognizes that co-owners of property must contribute to the ongoing expenses of property ownership.

Canada and the United Kingdom are the most popular choices out of all the states shown according to the poll. Most families are interested in moving due to factors such as the economy, environment, healthier lifestyle, and better work opportunities, the survey said.

Top states residents are leaving

The annual 2022 United Van Lines National Movers study is out! But it wasn't good news for New Jersey or New York. A similar report from United Van Lines showed New Jersey as the top outbound state, followed by Illinois, New York, Michigan, and Wyoming.

The feud has sparked a couple politicians to make innuendos to Disney that it should pick up and leave Florida for a friendlier environment in their state. However, despite the current hostile situation in Florida, Disney World is not going anywhere according to an expert on the entertainment giant.

While it expects the Fed to continue increasing rates to tame inflation, it believes that long-term rates have already peaked. “We expect that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.2%,” the organization noted in its forecast commentary.

Economists have long expected the Fed would likely stop raising interest rates at some point in 2023, but “where” rates peak — a level known as the “terminal” rate — is actually more important than “when.”

Along those lines, organizations like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will decline throughout 2023, continuing into the first quarter of 2024.

The Current State of The Florida Housing Market in 2022

The fact is, the demand for Florida homes remains one of the highest in the nation, (even through years like 2022) due to Florida's weather, lower income taxes, & low property taxes. This helps to explain the increase in home prices particularly in Florida.

House prices in the US have risen by 48.55% in the last ten years (from $173k to $257k) and if they continue to grow at this rate for another decade, the average US home will be worth $382k by 2030.

The average home value in Florida is around $377,000 as of 2023. This is an increase of 11.8% compared to the previous year. The average home price can vary widely depending on the location within the state, with some areas being significantly more expensive than others.

Will 2025 be a good year to buy a home? ›

After falling in 2023 and 2024, home prices are predicted to plateau in 2025 before rising again at just above the rate of inflation. However, due to the spike in home values from 2020 through 2022 due to record-low mortgage rates, median sales prices will take at least until 2027 to regain the highs of mid-2022.

“Returning to mortgage rates of 3% or 4% is not going to happen, in my view,” says Yun, who points out that historically rates have been higher. The low rates of 2020 and 2021 were “unique” and those that got them were “lucky,” he says.

Housing Market Predictions 2026

A more conservative cohort predicts a more modest 10.3 percent growth in the same period. In addition, a mere 8 percent of poll participants expect the housing market to largely favor homebuyers in 2026.

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates will fall to 5.5 percent by the end of 2023 as the economy weakens. The group revised its forecast upward a bit — it previously expected rates to fall to 5.3 percent.

Predictions for home prices

Overall, in five years, he expects prices to have appreciated a total of 15–25 percent. McBride predicts home prices will average low- to mid-single-digit annual appreciation over the next five years.

Since the start of 2022, the Fed has hiked rates 10 times to combat rising inflation. As of May 2023, the federal funds rate ranges from 5.00% to 5.25%. If this prediction is correct, it won't be surprising to see some of the best high-yield savings accounts offering rates exceeding 4%.

2023 is a balanced year for housing supply and demand. This is ideal for retail purchasers and rental property investors. No longer a “seller's” market. Rising interest rates raise the monthly mortgage payment, which reduces homebuyers and lowers property values.

“It's what we're living with.” While prices may slightly drop year-over-year at some point in 2023, Beracha predicted they won't fall by much. He said South Florida needs between five to 10 years' worth of new housing construction at the pace homes are being built here today.

Will home prices drop in Orlando Florida? ›

Will home prices drop in 2023 in Orlando? Due to an increase in inventory, home prices in Orlando may slightly decrease this year. Following the basic economic principle of supply and demand, the surge in supply will translate to more bargaining power for buyers.

In a bit of good news for potential buyers, home prices continue to drop — slightly. The median existing-home price for all housing types in April was $388,800, down 1.7% from April 2022. That's the biggest drop in home prices since January 2012. But prices and the competition for homes is uneven across the US.

The ten most expensive states to live in are Hawaii, Massachusetts, California, New York, Alaska, Maryland, Oregon, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Hawaii is the most expensive state to live in, with a cost of living index of 184.

Florida metros make up six of the 10 most overvalued housing markets in the nation, according to the latest report from researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University.

A reason Florida housing prices have gone up is that the demand is outpacing the supply of homes. For example, from 2010 to 2016 Florida saw the addition of almost 114,744 new households per year. However, only 57,952 new housing units were constructed.

Overall, the Florida housing market is likely to remain strong in 2023, with continued demand for homes and steady price growth.

Over the past few years, home prices in Florida have skyrocketed. Per Redfin data, in the middle of 2020, the median sale price was $275,600 — by April 2023, that figure had jumped to $400,800. The state remains one of the top markets people move to, and its increasing population will likely keep the market robust.

Buying a House in Florida

Housing prices are much cheaper in Florida than they are in California. In fact, homes in the Los Angeles area of California cost up to 180% more than homes in Orlando, Florida.

Based on recent data from Zillow, the Sarasota housing market is forecasted to continue its upward trend in 2023, with an average home value of $451,038, up 16.4% over the past year.

While home prices across the country are expected to depreciate on average by 0.5% in 2023, the Cape Coral-Fort Myers housing market is forecasted to appreciate by 4.5%, according to a report from Veros Real Estate Solutions.

What are mortgage rates predicted to be in 2024? ›

30-Year Mortgage Rate forecast for June 2024. Maximum interest rate 6.32%, minimum 5.76%. The average for the month 6.09%. The 30-Year Mortgage Rate forecast at the end of the month 5.94%.

'I believe by the end of 2023 we will see rates start to fall with a target of between 2.5 to 3 per cent in 2024. 'I believe if the base rate can get back to circa 2.5 per cent, then we will see rates hovering around that mark with a return to products that have not been seen in the mortgage industry for some time.'

To compare other locations to the Miami and U.S. housing market, enter a city, neighborhood, state, or zip code into the search bar. Miami's median sale price is 37% higher than the national average. Overall cost of living in Miami is 20% higher than the national average.

The average home value in Florida is around $377,000 as of 2023. This is an increase of 11.8% compared to the previous year. The average home price can vary widely depending on the location within the state, with some areas being significantly more expensive than others.

Miami will be one of the nation's hottest housing markets in 2023, according to a recent Zillow forecast. Zillow measured the 50 largest U.S. housing markets on price growth, inventory, jobs and demographics to determine its rankings.

Study: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton among nation's most overvalued housing markets. The North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro area ranks as one of the 10 most over-valued housing markets in the country, while Cape Coral-Fort Myers is at the top of the list.

Sarasota is a Sellers Housing Market, which means prices tend to be higher and homes sell faster.

Average home price in the United States: $436,800

The median home sales price is $436,800 as of the first quarter of 2023. That's a 32% increase from 2020, when the median was $329,000.

How the Naples Housing Market Evolved in 2022. As 2022 progressed, the Naples housing market saw prices peak in the Spring, and decreased slightly as we approached the Winter holiday season. However, the decrease was not as significant as we've seen in other Florida markets.