Cutting China off from the U.S. would cost America hundreds of billions of dollars, report says (2024)

Flags of U.S. and China are displayed at American International Chamber of Commerce (AICC)'s booth during China International Fair for Trade in Services in Beijing, China, May 28, 2019.

Jason Lee | Reuters

BEIJING — The U.S. economy could lose more than $1 trillion worth of production and long-term global competitiveness if the White House pursues a sharp separation with China, according to a report released Wednesday by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Rhodium Group.

As U.S. President Joe Biden looks set to retain his predecessor's tough stance on China, the authors of the report laid out estimates for the enormous costs of sweeping — rather than targeted — policies to protect U.S. national security from Beijing's growing economic and technological clout.

These projected losses include:

  • By 2025, $190 billion a year in in U.S. output by expanding 25% tariffs to all trade with China. In the coming decade, full implementation of such tariffs would cause the U.S. to fall $1 trillion short of potential growth.
  • Up to $500 billion in one-time GDP losses if the U.S. sells half of its direct investment in China. American investors would also lose $25 billion a year in capital gains.
  • $15 billion to $30 billion a year in exported services trade if Chinese tourism and education spending falls to half of what it was prior to the coronavirus pandemic.

Research for the 92-page report began in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic hammered the global economy.

Tensions between the U.S. and China escalated in the last three years under former President Donald Trump. His administration sought to use tariffs, sanctions and greater scrutiny of cross-border financial flows to address longstanding complaints about China's lack of intellectual property protections, forced technology transfers and significant role of the state in business operations.

Losing out on global competitiveness

The costs of the world's two largest economies separating range far beyond immediate dollar figures.

Sweeping U.S. policies directed at China will also affect other countries, forcing them to reconsider their relationships with the U.S., the report said. It added that these moves will increase costs for American businesses and reduce their ability to compete globally.

The report looked specifically at the impact of wide-ranging White House policy in the aviation, semiconductor, chemicals and medical devices industries. For example, losing out on China's massive market for airplanes could cost the U.S. $875 billion by 2038, according to the authors' analysis.

Cutting China off from the U.S. would cost America hundreds of billions of dollars, report says (1)

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China focuses on ramping up domestic chip industry amid shortage

To address national security goals, the report said the U.S. government should pursue "narrowly tailored actions" such as restrictions on the export of specific technology licenses.

Cutting U.S. businesses off from the Chinese market completely will likely have greater consequences for America's global leadership in the long term, the report said.

"It is critical that U.S. chip firms retain access to the Chinese market and are able to reinvest revenues from their China sales back into U.S.- based chip production and R&D to maintain their global leadership position, enabling the U.S. to set the standards for the future."

Ultimately, successful U.S.-China policy will have its costs and require some painful adjustments, the report said.

"In the policy reengineering to come," the report said, "the central role of market forces in determining winners, and the finite capacity of governments to redistribute resources to ease the process, must be respected."

Cutting China off from the U.S. would cost America hundreds of billions of dollars, report says (2024)

FAQs

What would happen if the US stopped trading with China? ›

If the U.S. is forced to sell half of its direct investments in China, that would cost American investors $25 billion a year in capital gains and up to $500 billion in GDP losses, the report said. U.S. businesses risk losing global competitiveness if sweeping policies force separation from China, the report said.

How much does the US depend on China? ›

U.S. goods and services trade with China totaled an estimated $615.2 billion in 2020. Exports were $164.9 billion; imports were $450.4 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $285.5 billion in 2020.

Can USA survive without China? ›

BEIJING -- The U.S. is unlikely to survive without its Chinese trading partner, the world's No. 2 economy, China's top commerce official said on Saturday. "American and Western friends always think China cannot survive without the U.S.," said Commerce Minister Zhong Shan.

How important is China to the US? ›

Today, the United States imports more from China than from any other country, and China is one of the largest export markets for U.S. goods and services. This trade has helped the United States in the form of lower prices for consumers and higher profits for corporations, but it has also come with costs.

How much money does US owe to China? ›

2021, China owns $1.095 trillion of the total $28 trillion U.S. national debt.

Is China a threat to the US economy? ›

The counterintelligence and economic espionage efforts emanating from the government of China and the Chinese Communist Party are a grave threat to the economic well-being and democratic values of the United States. Confronting this threat is the FBI's top counterintelligence priority.

Does China rely on the US dollar? ›

It is the world's third-largest creditor, and it is a major lender to developing economies. China also happens to be America's second largest international creditor. And yet China remains highly dependent on the dollar and access to America's financial system in terms of international trade and finance.

Who has more wealth China or USA? ›

TOKYO/BEIJING -- China's net worth reached $120 trillion in 2020 to overtake the U.S.'s $89 trillion as a red-hot real estate market drove up property value, according to a report by McKinsey Global Institute.

What percent of Walmart products are made in China? ›

In America, estimates say that Chinese suppliers make up 70-80 percent of Walmart's merchandise, leaving less than 20 percent for American-made products. Walmart's financial records show it collected $3.9 trillion in net sales between 2005 and 2014.

What does China own in the United States? ›

China owns and controls almost 192,000 acres of farmland right here in the United States. To be clear, it's not a huge percentage of our total farm acreage by any stretch. According to the FDA, there are more than 35 million acres of farmland in the U.S. which are owned by foreign investors.

What would happen if we stopped importing from China? ›

There would certainly be shortages of the currently imported goods for some years, until such time as the necessary industrial plant can be built out in North America. This would likely take about five years, although shortages of the most necessary goods would abate more rapidly.

Will China become more powerful than the US? ›

China's GDP should grow 5.7% per year through 2025 and then 4.7% annually until 2030, British consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts. Its forecast says that China, now the world's second-largest economy, would overtake the No. 1-ranked U.S. economy by 2030.

Is China on good terms with America? ›

The relationship is one of close economic ties (economic ties grew rapidly after 1980), as well as hegemonic rivalry in the Asia-Pacific. It has been described by world leaders and academics as the world's most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century. Chinese Embassy, Washington, D.C.

What country does the US owe the most money to? ›

Foreign holders of United States treasury debt

Of the total 7.2 trillion held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 870 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.

Which countries owe the US money? ›

Despite substantial debts that America owes to countries like China and Japan, they owe us money as well.
...
Debts and Debtors of the US Government.
Country NameValue of Holdings (Billions of $)
All Other (Place this on the United States itself)482.5
Japan1,090.8
Mainland China1,058.4
Ireland288.2
31 more rows

What country holds the most U.S. debt? ›

Top Foreign Owners of US National Debt
  • Japan. $1,082.2. 14.88%
  • China. $980.8. 13.48%
  • United Kingdom. $870. 11.96%
  • Belgium. $332.9. 4.58%
  • Luxembourg. $312.9. 4.3%

Will China overtake the US in power? ›

China's gross domestic product will surpass that of the U.S. in about 2035, the Goldman group led by Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas wrote, while India's GDP will narrowly surpass the U.S.' in about 2075.

Why does the US rely on China so much? ›

Not only does China supply a tremendous amount of our consumer and commercial goods, medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and vital raw materials, but it also controls a huge share of the world's shipping fleet and commercial shipbuilding capabilities.

What year will China overtake US economy? ›

Although the pace of China's economic rise has slowed in recent years, it appears on track to end the United States' lengthy run as the world's largest economy by around 2035, according to the latest projection by economists at Goldman Sachs.

Why does the US need to trade with China? ›

It supports US jobs.

While expanding foreign trade can disrupt US employment, trade with China also creates and supports a significant number of American jobs. Exports to China support nearly 900,000 US jobs, and Chinese companies invested in the United States employ over 160,000 workers.

What would happen if China stopped trading with the world? ›

Estimated economic losses if China trade is cut off

According to the estimates, a total of $2.61 trillion would evaporate -- an amount equal to 3% of the world's gross domestic product. China's GDP is 10 times larger than Russia's. China also boasts the world's largest total trade value.

Why did the US want to trade with China? ›

The demand for Chinese products—tea, porcelain, silk, and nankeen (a coarse, strong cotton cloth)—continued after the Revolution. Having seen the British make great profits from the trade when the colonies were prevented from direct trade with China, Americans were eager to secure these profits for themselves.

Why is China trade war important to US? ›

A new study from Columbia Business School finds that the U.S.-China trade war has led to an increase in global trade, a diversified supply chain for the products targeted by the tariffs, and significant implications for the future of globalization.

Does the US depend on China? ›

Not only does China supply a tremendous amount of our consumer and commercial goods, medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and vital raw materials, but it also controls a huge share of the world's shipping fleet and commercial shipbuilding capabilities.

Who is China's biggest trading partner? ›

List of largest trading partners of China
RankCountry / TerritoryTotal trade
-ASEAN975.3
1European Union847.3
2United States759.4
3South Korea362.2
18 more rows

What advantages does the US have over China? ›

The United States enjoys overwhelming advantages over China. The United States outweighs China in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), technology, and military spending. China's GDP is 15 percent of global GDP, compared to 24 percent of the United States.

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