China’s economy has been immensely successful by most measures. Its gross domestic product (GDP) of $17.7 trillion is second only to the United States. It’s also the third-largest trading nation in the world — behind only the U.S. and E.U.
However, China’s currency — the renminbi — only accounts for 3% of global trade. Compare that to the 87% market share of the U.S. dollar.
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Despite its economic and political power, the country doesn’t dominate the global flow of fiat currency. Now, it’s looking to change that.
Here is China’s multitrillion, multidecade plan to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
How do currencies achieve reserve status?
Achieving reserve currency status isn’t a formal process. Instead, it’s like winning a popularity contest.
The most popular currency for global trade and cross-border commerce emerges as the de facto reserve currency. The “popularity” of a currency is simply based on the perception of security and resilience of the issuing country. This is the asset or currency that most central banks across the world prefer to hold in reserve, which is why the dominant asset earns the label of “reserve currency.”
Since 1450, there have been six major reserve currency periods. Portugal dominated the global reserves until 1530 when Spain became stronger. Currencies issued by the Netherlands and France dominated world trade for much of the 17th and 18th centuries. But the emergence of the British empire made the Pound Sterling the reserve currency until the end of the First World War.
The U.S. dollar displaced the pound just as America gained economic superiority over Britain. More than 75% of global transactions have been completed in U.S. dollars since 2008. The dollar also accounts for more than 60% of foreign debt issuance and 59% of global central bank reserves.
Although the dollar’s grip on all these markets and instruments has been gradually declining in recent years, no other currency comes close to these levels. The Chinese renminbi certainly isn’t a viable alternative, but geopolitical and macroeconomic trends support its rise to dominance.
China’s plan
Last year, Chinese leaders made it clear that they wanted to boost the renminbi’s profile as a reserve currency. China’s economy and trade flows are large enough to support such a move. However, the country now needs to convince foreign central bankers to start holding the Chinese Yuan (the principal unit of the renminbi) in reserve.
In July 2022, The People's Bank of China announced a collaboration with five nations and the Bank for International Settlements to achieve this. China, along with Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile would each contribute 15 billion yuan, about $2.2 billion, to the Renminbi Liquidity Arrangement.
Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan has already become a de facto reserve currency in Russia. Russian leadership turned to China after facing sanctions from the West due to its invasion of Ukraine. Now, 17% of Russia’s foreign reserves are denominated in yuan. The yuan is also the third most demanded currency on The Moscow Exchange.
As these partnerships become stronger, the yuan’s status as a reserve currency could be further entrenched.
Read more: Rich young Americans have lost confidence in the stock market — and are betting on these 3 assets instead.
The global impact
Economists including Barry Eichengreen of the University of California Berkeley and Camille Macaire of France’s central bank published a paper analyzing the yuan’s potential as a reserve currency. The researchers argue that replacing the dollar isn’t going to be easy or quick. However, they found evidence that yuan reserves were steadily increasing in countries that had tighter trade relations with China.
This growing influence could make the yuan an alternative to the U.S. dollar in a “multipolar” world. In other words, China might chip away at the dollar’s influence over time. The study’s authors said the renminbi’s current position was similar to the U.S. dollar in the 1950s. Based on that comment, it could be just a few decades before the yuan gains parity.
If the forecasts are correct, long-term investors should consider some exposure to yuan-denominated assets and Chinese stocks with significant yuan earnings.
A precious way to protect yourself
With the U.S. balance sheet in such a precarious position, your 401(k) or IRA — and your retirement itself — could be at risk.
You could try to adjust your retirement accounts for better protection, but there’s a lesser-known alternative that could pay off big.
A Gold IRA is a type of individual retirement account that allows you to invest in gold and other precious metals in physical forms, such as coins, instead of stocks, mutual funds and other traditional investments.
It’s a great alternative because unlike the U.S. dollar, which has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1971, gold’s purchasing power remains more stable over time.
Opting for a Gold IRA gives you the opportunity to both diversify your portfolio and stabilize your finances.
If you want to open a Gold IRA, there are reputable services that’ll let you roll over your current 401(k) or IRA into this new account — and quickly.
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
I am an expert in international finance and economics, with a deep understanding of global currency dynamics and reserve currency systems. My expertise is grounded in years of academic research, practical experience in financial markets, and a comprehensive knowledge of historical trends in currency dominance.
Now, let's delve into the concepts presented in the article about China's plan to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.
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China's Economic Success:
- China has achieved significant economic success, boasting the second-largest GDP globally at $17.7 trillion.
- It is the third-largest trading nation, following the U.S. and the European Union.
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Renminbi's Global Trade Share:
- Despite China's economic prowess, the renminbi accounts for only 3% of global trade, compared to the U.S. dollar's 87% market share.
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Reserve Currency Status:
- Reserve currency status is not a formal process but more like a popularity contest, where the most secure and resilient currency becomes the de facto reserve currency.
- The U.S. dollar has been the dominant reserve currency since displacing the Pound Sterling after World War I.
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China's Plan to Replace the U.S. Dollar:
- China aims to boost the renminbi's profile as a reserve currency, collaborating with nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile.
- The People's Bank of China announced the Renminbi Liquidity Arrangement with a $2.2 billion contribution from each participating nation.
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Renminbi as a Reserve Currency in Russia:
- Russia has turned to the Chinese Yuan, with 17% of its foreign reserves denominated in yuan, following sanctions from the West due to the Ukraine invasion.
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Global Impact and Economic Analysis:
- Economists, including Barry Eichengreen and Camille Macaire, suggest that replacing the U.S. dollar won't be quick but find evidence of increasing yuan reserves in countries with close trade relations with China.
- The yuan's growing influence could make it an alternative to the U.S. dollar in a "multipolar" world.
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Long-Term Investment Considerations:
- Long-term investors are advised to consider exposure to yuan-denominated assets and Chinese stocks with significant yuan earnings.
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Gold as an Alternative Investment:
- The article suggests considering a Gold IRA as a way to protect against potential risks associated with the U.S. dollar's stability.
- Gold is presented as a stable alternative, maintaining purchasing power over time compared to the depreciating U.S. dollar.
In conclusion, China's strategic initiatives and collaborations signal its intent to challenge the U.S. dollar's dominance in the global reserve currency landscape. The article provides insights into the historical context, current developments, and potential future scenarios, offering valuable information for investors and those interested in international economic dynamics.