COT: Hedge funds zoom in on crude, copper, and silver (2024)

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What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers,Managed Moneyand other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional;Leveraged Fundsand other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial andnon-commercial(speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to havetight stopsandno underlying exposurethat is being hedged
  • This makes themmost reactive to changesin fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views aboutmajor trendsbut also helps to decipher when areversalis looming

Do note thatthis group tends toanticipate,accelerate, andamplifyprice changes that have been set in motion byfundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

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COT: Hedge funds zoom in on crude, copper, and silver (2024)
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