Commercial Real Estate Trends & Challenges in 2024 (2024)

The real estate sector has experienced notable growth from shiftingconsumer demand and the COVID-19 pandemic. Grand View Research forecasts a 5.2%annual growth through 2030. However, real estate businesses must prepare for challengessuch as insurance market difficulties, more natural disasters, labor shortagesand social inflation concerns. Explore trends shaping the real estate industryin 2024 to protect your business from emerging risks.

Top Trends in the Commercial Real Estate Market

Navigating Insurance Challenges

Claims Frequency & Severity

Adequate insurance coverage is crucial for protectingagainst property and liability losses. However, the insurance market facesmounting pressure driven by increasing loss frequency and severity. Large-scalenatural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, flooding) have surgedproperty insurance catastrophe (CAT) exposures and related losses. Additionally,inflation-driven construction material and labor costs have heightened the expenseof property repairs and replacements. As economic conditions inflate overall propertyvalues, your company must update its policies to reflect current propertyvaluations and mitigate coverage gaps and potential losses.

Rate & Capacity Concerns

Amid these challenges, property insurers have issuedconsistent rate increases and capacity restrictions. The Council of InsuranceAgents & Brokers (CIAB) reports double-digit premium increases in the realestate market, with an average rate increase of 17% in 2023. Moving forward,real estate investors with properties in CAT-exposed regions and withinadequate risk management practices may face continued premium hikes andcoverage limitations. Notably, habitational real estate investors may encounterheightened difficulty in obtaining property insurance, potentially facing ratehikes of 35% due to the perceived higher risk associated with frame construction.

Looking for more insight into the property and casualty market in 2024?

Bracing for Litigation & Legal Developments

Rising litigation trends in the real estate sector, stem fromcontractual tenant and contractor disputes, construction and renovation projectincidents, and third-partylosses from poor property maintenance or security measures. Theseconditions have motivated insurers to increase premiums and reduce capacity. Insuredshave been experiencing average premium increases of around 5%, in addition tostricter underwriting standards and increased documentation requirements. In2024, failure to meet these standards or heightened liability risks may resultin ongoing rate increases and restricted coverage for the real estate industry.

Addressing Natural Disaster Exposures

Global losses from natural disasters reached $250 billion in2023, surpassing a 10-year average. The U.S. witnessed a record-high 28-billion-dollarweatherand climate disasters in 2023, causing $93 billion in overall losses and492 fatalities. This represents a considerable increase from the prior recordof 22 distinct billion-dollar disasters in 2020 and exceeds the five-yearaverage of 20 events. Munich Re found that convective storms (e.g.,thunderstorms, tornadoes, hailstorms), accounted for 54% of all U.S.weather-related losses in 2023, costing $50 billion, nearly double the pastdecade’s average.

The real estate industry is facing significant propertydamage and associated CAT losses. Property insurers have limited coverage forCAT exposures, leaving real estate businesses vulnerable to financial ruin. Climateexperts warn these disasters may worsen in the future, underscoring the urgencyfor your firm to recognize and address its unique CAT exposures.

Is your organization adequately prepared for a natural disaster? Our Disaster Preparedness Guide offers tips and guidance to keep your business running..

Mitigating Labor Shortages

Labor shortages have emerged as a top concern impacting thereal estate sector, affecting over two-thirds of businesses recruiting skilled workers.The National Apartment Association reported a 33% turnover rate for propertymanagement staff in 2023, 10% above the industry average. Elevated turnoverrates in property management exacerbate maintenance challenges, increasing therisk of cleanliness and safety issues and potential liabilities. Challengesfrom remote work and wage inflation further complicate recruitment efforts,necessitating alternative strategies to attract and retain talent. Hybrid work arrangementsare not favorable for property management, underscoring the importance ofalternative solutions to address workforce shortages effectively.

Unraveling Social Inflation Issues

Social inflation, driven by societal attitudes toward riskabsorption and litigation, poses significant challenges in the real estatesector. Rising third-party litigation funding, altering tort reforms and risinganti-corporate culture, empower stakeholders to hold businesses accountable fortheir perceived wrongdoings, prompting additional litigation and insuranceclaims.

Growing public perception views larger businesses as capableof absorbing the financial consequences of damages. This has led to an increasein nuclear verdicts (jury awards of $10 million or more), particularlyimpacting the real estate sector. As litigation escalates, real estatecompanies may encounter substantial underinsurance gaps and higher out-of-pocketexpenses. Reduce your company’s risks by taking proactive measures to limitliability exposures and reduce litigation.

Risk Prevention Strategies for Real Estate Businesses

Your businesses can adopt several risk management strategiesto successfully navigate current industry trends, reduce related risks andprevent significant losses. Consider these best practices:

  • Regularly assess your property and liabilityexposures, implementing mitigation strategies accordingly.
  • Evaluate your CAT risks and implement weatherproofingsafeguards for disaster-prone properties.
  • Ensure accurate property valuations to reflectcurrent inflation trends.
  • Modify employee attraction and retentioninitiatives (e.g., flexible scheduling, wellbeing efforts) to address laborshortages.
  • Prioritize property management to upholdmaintenance standards and mitigate cleanliness and safety risks.
  • Establish business continuity and emergencyresponse plans to facilitate prompt recovery from incidents.
  • Ensure timely claims reporting and documentationto manage claims losses effectively.
  • Collaborate with your trusted insurance advisorto stay informed on market conditions and secure adequate coverage oralternative risk financing solutions.

We’re Here to Help Real Estate Investors Manage Risk

Stay updated on the latest trends in the real estateindustry to ensure the continued growth and success of your business Takenecessary measures to address any potential risks and vulnerabilities. Connectwith a memberof our team for expert risk management solutions and guidance on coverageoptions.

Commercial Real Estate Trends & Challenges in 2024 (2024)

FAQs

What is the outlook for the commercial real estate industry in 2024? ›

With fewer new construction deliveries, the fundamentals of this sector will remain solid in 2024. When new supply is constrained, it can lead to tighter market conditions, potentially supporting rental rates and occupancy levels, key components of the commercial real estate sector.

What is the outlook for CRE in 2024? ›

Overall, CRE maturities will rise to $929 billion in 2024, representing 20% of the $4.7 trillion in outstanding loans, with banks holding 47% of the maturing volume (Figure 2). The number of loans maturing this year has raised concerns about default risk and the potential for an increase in distressed assets.

What is the biggest challenge in the commercial real estate industry? ›

Global market instability is the primary factor that sets the context for commercial real estate. In an unpredictable market, commercial real estate stakeholders are cautious and carefully navigate a period of price discovery.

What is the outlook for commercial lending in 2024? ›

According to a recent report from CoStar, the commercial real estate lending sector is poised for a rebound in 2024 after a historic slowdown, with projections indicating a 29% increase in loan origination to $576 billion.

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