China is the World’s Largest Economy: Get Over It (2024)

It is common for politicians and pundit types to speculate on when or whether China’s economy will pass the US economy as the world’s largest. The latest episode to cross my path was a column by David Wallace in the New York Times.

There is little reason for this sort of speculation. China is already the world’s largest economy, its economy is more than 20 percent larger than the US economy, according to the IMF. Furthermore, it is growing considerably more rapidly (assuming they don’t continue their zero COVID-19 policy forever), so it is projected to be more than a third larger than the US economy by the end of the decade.

Here’s the picture.

China is the World’s Largest Economy: Get Over It (2)

Source: International Monetary Fund.

Many people misunderstand the relative sizes of the two economies because they rely on exchange rate measures of GDP. These measures a country’s GDP and then compare it to the US GDP by converting its currency into dollars at the current exchange rate.

Most economists argue that a purchasing power parity measure of GDP is superior. This applies a common set of prices to the goods and services produced in different countries. Any measure like this will always be inaccurate, but in principle it is comparing apples to apples. We assume that tables sell for $500 everywhere, that shoes sell for $60, etc.

Using the purchasing power parity measure, China’s GDP passed the US GDP around 2014. Since then it has made the gap larger.

Some folks seem to find it hard to accept that the US does not have the world’s largest economy, but such is life. Donald Trump lost the election and the US is number 2.

China is the World’s Largest Economy: Get Over It (3)

Dean Baker | Senior Economist

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China is the World’s Largest Economy: Get Over It (4)

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China is the World’s Largest Economy: Get Over It (2024)

FAQs

Why China is the world's largest economy? ›

China's economy has grown to one of the largest and most powerful in the world over the past few decades. Driven by industrial production and manufacturing exports, China's GDP is actually now the largest in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) equivalence.

Is China the largest economy in the world? ›

It is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP, behind the United States, and the world's largest economy since 2016 when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP). Due to a volatile currency exchange rate, China's GDP as measured in dollars fluctuates sharply.

Has China overtaken the US economy? ›

Based on key indicators of innovation and advanced-industry performance, China has surpassed the United States in total innovation output and is getting close on a proportional basis.

Why is China having a rapid progress answer? ›

Rapid industrialization increased employment to many people. Industrialization increased GDP. There are so many companies which gives employment to many people. A stable government regulate the country.

Does China have a better economy than the US? ›

The U.S. currently has the largest economy in the world by far with $23 trillion in 2021 GDP, according to the World Bank's data, while China has the second-largest GDP at $18 trillion and India the sixth-largest at $3 trillion.

How has China become the second largest economy? ›

China has not only become the world's factory, but also lifted over 700 million rural residents out of poverty as the economy expanded. The country's economic success has benefited greatly from a large population with relatively low labor costs and a huge market, but also an efficient and strong central government.

How powerful is China economy? ›

China's years of high GDP growth meant that its economy ballooned more than tenfold between the turn of the century and 2021, from $1.2 trillion to nearly $18 trillion, according to World Bank data. By contrast, the GDP of the United States, the world's largest economy, is a little more than double its size in 2000.

Who is the largest economy in the world? ›

According to the latest available data from the World Bank, the United States of America is currently the world's largest economy, with a GDP of over $23 trillion in 2021.

How successful is China's economy? ›

China's economy is set to rebound this year as mobility and activity pick up after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, providing a boost to the global economy. The economy will expand 5.2 percent this year, according to our latest projections, versus 3 percent last year.

When did China's economy overtake US? ›

No peak was in sight. At the end of last year the bank revisited its calculations. It now thinks China's economy will not overtake America's until 2035 and at its high point will be only 14% bigger (see chart).

Does China owe the US money? ›

As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

Will China overtake the US and become the world's largest economy by 2030? ›

"China would overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy in nominal US dollar terms by about 2030," the report's authors conclude. "But it would never establish a meaningful lead ... and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person than America, even by mid-century."

Is China ahead of the US technologically? ›

China is also outpacing the US in all energy and environment technology research areas and is leading in technologies like drones, autonomous systems and hypersonics.

What is the fastest growing economy in the world? ›

India. India's GDP grew by 8.7% in 2021, reaching $3.1 trillion, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Furthermore, India's per capita income has doubled in the last decade, and poverty rates have declined significantly.

Why are people moving from China? ›

According to both immigrants and China scholars, the reasons are many, including lower relative U.S. living costs, changing sociopolitical conditions at home and a well-established support network of Chinese communities in the U.S.

How important is China to the US economy? ›

China is currently our largest goods trading partner with $559.2 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2020. Goods exports totaled $124.5 billion; goods imports totaled $434.7 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $310.3 billion in 2020.

Who has a better economy than the US? ›

Switzerland. Switzerland, officially called the Swiss Confederation, is a small country in Central Europe made up of 16,000 square miles of glacier-carved Alps, lakes and valleys. It's one of the world's wealthiest countries, and has been well-known for centuries for its neutrality.

What if the US stopped buying from China? ›

Answer and Explanation: It is unlikely that China's economy will collapse if U.S. stops buying Chinese goods. Trade is an important part of any economy, and a very important part of China's economy. According to the World Bank, exports account for 20% of China's gross domestic product.

Why China is growing so fast? ›

Reforms such as liberalization of investment and trade, promoting the creation of private and rural enterprises, relaxed state control over some prices, industrial production, and increased education investments contributed to the growth of the country's economy (Hu and Khan, 1997) .

Why is China so important to the global economy? ›

It is one of the world's fastest growing countries and is the tenth largest exporter. China is also a significant recipient of foreign aid and a major borrower on international capital markets.

How does the US benefit from China's rapid economic growth? ›

It supports US jobs.

While expanding foreign trade can disrupt US employment, trade with China also creates and supports a significant number of American jobs. Exports to China support over 1 million US jobs, and Chinese companies invested in the United States employ over 160,000 workers.

What would happen if China economy collapsed? ›

Still, China's economic headwinds could lead to major impacts. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy will create new price pressures in the U.S. if its export prices rise — and hurt the demand for U.S. products.

Is China in a debt crisis? ›

China's $23 Trillion Local Debt Crisis Threatens Xi's Economy - Bloomberg.

How much debt is China in? ›

In this line, data acquired by Finbold indicates that as of April 12, China's national debt amounted to $14.34 trillion, ranking second globally. This value reflects a year-on-year (YoY) increase of $3.81 trillion, or 36.18%, compared to the $10.53 trillion recorded in 2022.

Who controls the world economy? ›

The IMF monitors the international monetary system and global economic developments to identify risks and recommend policies for growth and financial stability. The Fund also undertakes a regular health check of the economic and financial policies of its 190 member countries.

Who has the strongest economy right now? ›

Biggest economies in 2021 by gross domestic product
RankCountryGDP in $ per capita
1United States70,249
2China12,556
3Japan39,313
4Germany51,204
46 more rows

Who has the strongest economy in America? ›

State With Highest GDP

California is the state with the highest GDP in the United States, with a GDP of $3.5 trillion. There are several reasons why California has the highest GDP in America.

How did China become a strong economy? ›

During the 1950s, all of China's individual household farms were collectivized into large communes. To support rapid industrialization, the central government undertook large-scale investments in physical and human capital during the 1960s and 1970s.

When did China become a strong economy? ›

Since China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged over 9 percent a year, and more than 800 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty. There have also been significant improvements in access to health, education, and other services over the same period.

What type of economy is China? ›

While initially founded as a socialist state with a centrally planned economy, it now has a mixed economy, described by its government as “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”. China has enjoyed almost 30 boom years with GDP growing in double-digits, raising 500 million people out of poverty.

How much does the US owe China? ›

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt
RankCountryU.S. Treasury Holdings
1🇯🇵 Japan$1,076B
2🇨🇳 China$867B
3🇬🇧 United Kingdom$655B
4🇧🇪 Belgium$354B
6 more rows
Mar 24, 2023

Is the US economy growing faster than China's? ›

China Is Growing Much Faster Than the U.S. Why It Matters for Global Power.

Will China surpass the US in military air superiority? ›

China is on pace to surpass the United States in 5th generation fighter production, a dynamic shift with significant implications for the balance of air power in the Pacific.

Who owes the United States money? ›

Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.

Who owes China the most money? ›

At the end of 2021, of the 98 countries for whom data was available, Pakistan ($27.4 billion of external debt to China), Angola (22.0 billion), Ethiopia (7.4 billion), Kenya (7.4 billion) and Sri Lanka (7.2 billion) held the biggest debts to China.

Who holds US government debt? ›

Foreign Holders of Federal Debt

As of December 2022, such holdings made up $7.3 trillion, or 30 percent, of DHBP. Of that amount, 54 percent was held by foreign governments while private investors held the remaining 46 percent.

Which country will overtake China by 2050? ›

According to Policy Brief No. 153 from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), entitled “India overtakes China as the world's most populous country”, between 2023 and 2050, the number of persons aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China and to increase by more than double in ...

Which country will rule the world in 2025? ›

According to a recent report by Harvard University, “From economic complexity growth estimates, India is growing at the annual list at the rate of 7.9 percent as the fastest growing country for the coming decade.

What would happen if China invades Taiwan? ›

“A war across the Strait would not only be a human tragedy, it would destroy world trade worth $2.6 trillion, according to Nikkei Asia. No country could shield itself from the repercussions. “Distance would offer no protection from this catastrophic blow to the global economy – and to China most of all.”

Who has the best technology USA or China? ›

The United States and other western countries are losing the race with China to develop advanced technologies and retain talent, with Beijing potentially establishing a monopoly in some areas, a new report has said.

Is the US losing its technological edge? ›

The US has largely dominated these areas of innovation since the early days of computing. But academics who study advances in computer science say in a new report that by many measures, the US lead in advanced computing has declined significantly over the past five years—especially when measured against China.

Does China produce more engineers than the US? ›

Assessing undergraduate engineering

Even the National Academies and the U.S. Department of Education have cited these numbers. Such statements often conclude that because China and India collectively graduate 12 times more engineers than does the United States, the United States is in trouble.

Which country will have the best economy in the future? ›

Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average. As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)

Which country will be richest in 2050? ›

Richest Country in 2050 will be United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product in 2050 is estimated to be 3.58 trillion US dollars, with a per capita income of 49,412 US dollars. The present gap between the British economic wealth and Germany's economic wealth will contract significantly.

Are millionaires leaving China? ›

Capital fright. Faced with such headaches, many have been looking to leave. That was hard in 2020-21, when covid controls hit emigration. But in 2022 some 10,800 high-net-worth individuals, who have an average wealth of $6m, left the country, with the flow accelerating at the end of the year as covid controls eased.

Why do Americans live in China? ›

Americans have been coming to China for job opportunities since 1994. In the late 2000s and early 2010s, a growing number of Americans in their 20s and 30s headed to China for employment, lured by its faster-growing economy and good pay in the financial sector.

Where are most Chinese moving to? ›

From the mid-20th century onward, emigration has been directed primarily to Western countries such as the United States, Australia, Canada, Brazil, The United Kingdom, New Zealand, Argentina and the nations of Western Europe; as well as to Peru, Panama, and to a lesser extent to Mexico.

Why is China important to the economy? ›

China's growing economy is also an important source of global demand. Its economic rebalancing will create new opportunities for manufacturing exporters, though it may reduce demand for commodities over the medium-term. China is a growing influence on other developing economies through trade, investment, and ideas.

Why and how China is a world economic power? ›

China has the world's largest banking assets. It is the world's largest manufacturer. The world leader in digital innovation, green tech and e-commerce.

How does China rank overall among the largest economies in the world? ›

China is the second-largest economy in the world, with a GDP of over $17 trillion. The country has experienced rapid economic growth over the past few decades, thanks in part to its large population and abundant natural resources.

Why is the world dependent on China? ›

In addition to its low labor costs, China has become known as "the world's factory" because of its strong business ecosystem, lack of regulatory compliance, low taxes and duties, and competitive currency practices.

Does China have a better economy? ›

China's years of high GDP growth meant that its economy ballooned more than tenfold between the turn of the century and 2021, from $1.2 trillion to nearly $18 trillion, according to World Bank data. By contrast, the GDP of the United States, the world's largest economy, is a little more than double its size in 2000.

Why is China becoming an economic superpower? ›

The largely agrarian economy transitioned into an advanced economy with the expansion of its manufacturing and services sector. China's industrial growth strategy paved the way for the country to become the largest manufacturer. Due to its industrial prowess, it began to be called the ''world's factory''.

How does China control the economy? ›

The Chinese Communist Party reserves the right to make broad decisions on economic priorities and policies, but the government apparatus headed by the State Council assumes the major burden of running the economy.

When did China become the largest economy? ›

IMF data indicate that China overtook the United States as the world's largest economy in 2014 on a PPP basis.

What is the most powerful economy in the world? ›

1. United States. The real GDP of the US is estimated to be $20.94 trillion. The services sector of the US is much more developed and technologically sophisticated.

How much does China contribute to the economy? ›

In the same period, China's rate of contribution to global trade growth ranked among the world top three, reaching 4.7 percent, lower only than the US rate of 14.4 percent and Japan's 6.9 percent.

When did China become the fastest growing economy? ›

China has been the fastest growing economy in the world since the 1980s, with an average annual growth rate of 10% from 1978 to 2005, based on government statistics.

Is China the fastest growing country in the world? ›

As the world's third largest and fastest growing major economy, China presents enormous opportunities for U.S. workers and firms but also considerable challenges.

How fast is China's economy growing? ›

China's annual GDP (YoY %)

The economy grew 3% in 2022, less than Beijing's official target of around 5.5% set in March last year. For 2023, the government last month set a modest growth target of "around 5%."

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