The Inconvenient Truth About U.S. Growth (2024)

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The Inconvenient Truth About U.S. Growth (1)

About the author:Graham Allisonis the Douglas Dillon professor of government at Harvard University.

The U.S. economy is “leaving its peers ever further in the dust,” the Economist declared in a recent cover story. That idea is making waves in Washington. Particularly among those who feel the deep divisions in this country, are disheartened by the prospects of a rerun of the 2020 election between an octogenarian and an indicted former president, and see the looming specter of stalemate over raising the debt ceiling that could force the nation to default, the notion that the U.S. economy is world-beating is a welcome reassurance. “America’s dominance of the rich world is startling,” the Economist tells us.

The inconvenient truth, however, is that the Economistreaches this stunning conclusion by excluding the U.S.’s only true peer: China. Instead, it compares the U.S. with competitors in the G7: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.K. In that race the U.S. is not only ahead but extending its lead. But to declare the U.S. the winner for outrunning other members of the G7 is like awarding an American Olympic sprinter the gold medal by excluding world champion Usain Bolt. While the Global South’s criticism of the G7 as an obsolete, aging, pale club of former imperialists is overblown, the incandescent fact is that since its founding a half century ago, the G7 economies’ share of global gross domestic product has been steadily shrinking. Today, their seven economies account for just 44% of the global total (30% measured by the purchasing-power parity yardstick that the International Monetary Fund and Central Intelligence Agency use as the best single metric for comparing national economies).

If the only other contenders to shape the 21st-century international order were the six other former great powers of the G7, we could be heartened that the U.S. was extending its lead. But the defining challenge of this new world is the rivalry between the U.S. and a meteorically rising China. GDP is, of course, not everything. But it does create the substructure of power in relations among nations. And when we look at the data rather than the declarations, brute facts are hard to deny. Whose economy has risen from one-tenth the size of the U.S. when it joined the World Trade Organization at the beginning of this century to three-quarters that of the U.S. last year? Whose economy has grown faster than every G7 nation in every year for the past three decades? Who will have the fastest-growing “big economy” in the world this year?

Official reports of China’s performance in the first quarter of 2023 were released last week: China grew 4.5% driven by domestic consumption and exports that increased 15%. What will happen in the next three quarters and beyond remains to be seen. But investors, companies, and countries have to make their best judgements. And in the race between the U.S. and China, analysts who have the best track records are not expecting the U.S. to outrun China.

Indeed, just the opposite. Except for a few eccentric academics and editorialists who have been promoting a “peak China” theory, everyone is expecting China’s economy to grow faster than the U.S. this year. They are also expecting it to grow faster than the U.S. next year. And in 2025 and as far beyond that as any eye can see. The only question informed analysts and investors are debating is: How much faster than the U.S. will China’s economy grow this year? Twice as fast? Three times the U.S.? More?

For anyone who’s serious about their claims that the U.S. is leaving its peers in the dust or are convinced that China is peaking, I suggest they find a colleague and make a bet like the one I’ve proposed to my colleagues at Harvard. Specifically, I’ve offered bets up to $1,000 on the proposition that in 2023 U.S. GDP will not grow faster than China’s. Indeed, I even offered to bet that the U.S. will not grow half as fast as China this year.

Before putting their money down, however, I suggest those tempted to make such a bet first review the facts. The consensus forecast for 2023 includes the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, the major investment banks, and most academic economists. All of these foresee the U.S. economy growing at somewhere between 0.1% and 1.6% this year, and China’s growth as between 4.8% to 6%. So far these estimates are right on track. U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.1% last quarter, the Commerce Department said this week. My best judgment is that when the books on 2023 are closed, China will have grown more than three times the rate of the U.S.

It is also worth reflecting on the implicit bets that have been made by executives with their companies’ fortunes on the line. The chief executive of the world’s most valuable company, Tim Cook of Apple, took center stage at the China Development Forum in Beijing last month to explain why he has bet his company’s future on China’s continued growth. While expanding in India and elsewhere in Southeast Asia to diversify its supply chain, Apple still produces 95% of iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks in China. The longtime chairman of one of the world’s most recognizable consumer brands, Howard Schultz of Starbucks, sees China becoming the company’s largest market by 2025. Starbucks opens a new Chinese location every nine hours. And one of the world’s richest and most eccentric entrepreneurs, Elon Musk, doubled down on China two weeks ago, announcing a second assembly line to produce Tesla batteries in Shanghai. In Musk’s words: “China in the long term will be our biggest market, both where we make the most number of vehicles and where we have the most number of customers.”

At the beginning of 2023, the U.S.’s real GDP stood at around $20 trillion and China’s at around $16 trillion—leaving a gap of $4 trillion. If the U.S. were leaving its closest peer in the dust, at the end of 2023, that gap will have widened. Barring some unexpected disruption that turns the overwhelming consensus on its head, however, when we look at the numbers rather than the narratives, we will see that the gap has continued to shrink—as it has in each of the past 46 years.

Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron’s and MarketWatch newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit commentary proposals and other feedback toideas@barrons.com.

The Inconvenient Truth About U.S. Growth (2024)

FAQs

What is the main message of An Inconvenient Truth? ›

Gore's main point remains clear: whatever the eventual impacts, there is a need to act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This can be achieved with current technologies and in an affordable way, he says, although he presents few specific examples in the film.

What solution did Gore devise to resolve India's reluctance to join the Paris agreement? ›

7. What solution did Gore devise to resolve India's reluctance to join the Paris agreement? In order to resolve the impasse, Gore asked Lyndon Rive, CEO and co-founder of SolarCity, to donate their new solar cell technology to India, making them, in his words, the “corporate hero” of the Paris climate talks.

What you can do to help in the fight against our changing climate? ›

  • Spread the word. Encourage your friends, family and co-workers to reduce their carbon pollution. ...
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May 4, 2022

What is the central argument of Inconvenient Truth? ›

Abstract. The movie An Inconvenient Truth is a powerful portrayal of global warming and its impacts. The main scientific argument presented in the movie is for the most part consistent with the weight of scientific evidence, but with some of the main points needing updating, correction, or qualification.

What is the best quote from Inconvenient Truth? ›

Quotes
  • Al Gore : [quoting Mark Twain] "What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. ...
  • Al Gore : You know, more than 100 years ago, Upton Sinclair wrote this, that "It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

What is the most criticized scene in An Inconvenient Truth? ›

"The single most criticized scene in that movie," he says as a map of lower Manhattan shows streets flooding with water, "was an animated scene showing that the combination of sea-level rise and storm surge would put the ocean water into the 9/11 memorial site which was then under construction.

What was the main goal of the Paris Agreement agreed to by the majority of countries around the world in 2015? ›

The Paris Agreement sets out a global framework to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. It also aims to strengthen countries' ability to deal with the impacts of climate change and support them in their efforts.

What did India promise in Paris Agreement? ›

India will meet 50% of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030.” 500 GW non-fossil “energy capacity” by 2030.

What do 195 nations through the Paris Agreement aim to achieve? ›

The Paris Agreement's central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

What are 5 ways to reduce climate change? ›

Start with these ten actions to help tackle the climate crisis.
  • Save energy at home. ...
  • Walk, bike, or take public transport. ...
  • Eat more vegetables. ...
  • Consider your travel. ...
  • Throw away less food. ...
  • Reduce, reuse, repair & recycle. ...
  • Change your home's source of energy. ...
  • Switch to an electric vehicle.

Which country emits the most carbon dioxide? ›

  • China. China is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide gas in the world, with 10,668 million metric tons emitted in 2020. ...
  • The U.S. The U.S. is the second-largest emitter of CO2, with 4,713 million metric tons of total carbon dioxide emissions in 2020. ...
  • India.

What is the most effective solution to climate change? ›

The main ways to stop climate change are to pressure government and business to:
  • Keep fossil fuels in the ground. ...
  • Invest in renewable energy. ...
  • Switch to sustainable transport. ...
  • Help us keep our homes cosy. ...
  • Improve farming and encourage vegan diets. ...
  • Restore nature to absorb more carbon. ...
  • Protect forests like the Amazon.

Which country is most responsible for global warming? ›

Top 10 polluters
  • China, with more than 10,065 million tons of CO2 released.
  • United States, with 5,416 million tons of CO2.
  • India, with 2,654 million tons of CO2.
  • Russia, with 1,711 million tons of CO2.
  • Japan, 1,162 million tons of CO2.
  • Germany, 759 million tons of CO2.
  • Iran, 720 million tons of CO2.

What are the three factors causing the collision between civilization and Earth? ›

In the film, Gore claims three factors are the cause of the collision between civilization and our planet, including technological revolution, the explosion of the population and humans' way of thinking.

How does Gore expose the misconception that we have to choose between the economy and the environment? ›

12. Gore uses graphics, charts, and statistics to expose the myth that we have to choose between the economy and the environment. Gore exposes this choice as a false dilemma, claiming that doing the right thing inevitably moves us forward as a country.

What is the most misquoted quote? ›

10 Famous Misquotes from History
  • “Et tu, Brute?” – Julius Caesar. ...
  • “Houston, we have a problem” – Jack Swigert. ...
  • “Let them eat cake!” – Marie Antoinette. ...
  • “I see no ships” – Admiral Horatio Nelson. ...
  • “We are not amused” – Queen Victoria. ...
  • “One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind” – Neil Armstrong. ...
  • “Dr.
Oct 26, 2021

What is a famous quote on Omaha Beach? ›

—Photographer Robert Capa on Omaha Beach. Soldiers, Sailors and Airmen of the Allied Expeditionary Force: You are about to embark upon the Great Crusade, toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the world are upon you. The hope and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you.

Who said hurt me with the truth but never comfort me with a lie quote? ›

Quote by Erza Scarlet: “Hurt me with the truth.

What was the most ridiculous thing that Al Gore's 6th grade teacher ever heard? ›

1. What did Al Gore's sixth grade teacher say was “the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard?” The idea that the East Coast of South America and the West Coast of Africa once fit together but have since drifted apart (the scientific fact of continental drift).

What causes the moulins to push their way under the ice sheet? ›

Moulins push through the ice sheet because water is heavier than ice. They burrow to the bottom of the ice and reduce friction between the ice sheet and the land upon which it sits, causing the flow of the ice sheet to the ocean to speed up.

What do scientists mean by a tipping point? ›

For the climate system, the term refers to a critical threshold at which global or regional climate changes from one stable state to another stable state.". In ecosystems and in social systems, a tipping point can trigger a regime shift, a major systems reorganisation into a new stable state.

Is the Paris Agreement working? ›

Governments generally agree on the science behind climate change but have diverged on who is most responsible, how to track emissions-reduction goals, and whether to compensate harder-hit countries. Experts say the Paris Agreement is not enough to prevent the global average temperature from rising 1.5°C.

What are some criticisms of the Paris Agreement? ›

The Paris Agreement limit won't protect all countries and locations from the strong negative impacts of climate change. For vulnerable climates close to deserts, such as the Sahel region of Africa, the climate targets don't go far enough to protect the people living there.

Why was the Paris Agreement so successful? ›

Under the terms of the agreement, each country pledges its own commitments to control emissions, which are not binding under international law. The beauty of the non-binding approach is that countries are free to take risks in how they set their commitments.

What is the climate change target for 2030? ›

With the 2030 Climate Target Plan, the Commission proposes to raise the EU's ambition on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. This is a substantial increase compared to the existing target upwards from the previous target of at least 40%EN•••.

What are the climate targets for 2030? ›

Key targets for 2030: At least 40% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels) At least 32% share for renewable energyEN. At least 32.5% improvement in energy efficiencyEN.

What has China committed under the Paris Agreement? ›

The submission means China has now officially confirmed that its commitment to tackle climate change under the terms of the Paris Agreement will see it peak its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions before 2060.

What countries are violating the Paris Agreement? ›

The EU and 194 states, totalling over 98% of anthropogenic emissions, have ratified or acceded to the agreement. The only countries which have not ratified are some greenhouse gas emitters in the Middle East: Iran with 2% of the world total being the largest. Libya and Yemen have also not ratified the agreement.

What happens if a country doesn t follow the Paris Agreement? ›

If by 2030 we do not reach the Paris Agreement's targets, we are facing up to 2.7 degrees Celsius in global warming. This warming means far more erratic weather conditions and global temperature records being reached.

What happens if a country violates the Paris Agreement? ›

“Every country has to send periodic reports on what they're doing,” says Mehling, “in the form of national emissions inventories and progress towards achieving their NDCs.” The main formal consequence for a member failing to meet its targets is a meeting with a global committee of neutral researchers.

Is it too late to stop global warming? ›

While the effects of human activities on Earth's climate to date are irreversible on the timescale of humans alive today, every little bit of avoided future temperature increases results in less warming that would otherwise persist for essentially forever.

Is global warming going to get better? ›

Is climate change getting better or worse? If greenhouse gas emissions are increasing — which they are, according to NPR — then technically, climate change is getting worse. But before you lose hope and fall victim to climate doom, it's important to remember that our situation is still very complex.

What will happen if global warming continues? ›

Earth Will Continue to Warm and the Effects Will Be Profound

The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires, longer periods of drought in some regions, and an increase in the wind intensity and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

What is the biggest polluter in the United States? ›

Human activities are responsible for almost all of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last 150 years. The largest source of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities in the United States is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation.

Who is the number 1 polluter in the world? ›

China was the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2021, accounting for nearly 31 percent of the global emissions. The world's top five largest polluters were responsible for roughly 60 percent of global CO₂ emissions in 2021.

Is the US military the biggest polluter in the world? ›

Although the Pentagon has been at the forefront of climate change research since the mid-20th century, Crawford writes, the US Department of Defense is also the single largest institutional fossil fuel user in the world. Since 2001, the military has been responsible for 77 to 80 percent of federal energy consumption.

How long do we have to fix climate change? ›

The best science we have tells us that to avoid the worst impacts of global warming, we must globally achieve net-zero carbon emissions no later than 2050.

How long is climate change proposed to last? ›

To limit warming to 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as set out in the Paris Agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to peak before 2025. Then they must decline by 43 per cent by 2030 and to net zero by 2050.

Can climate change be fixed? ›

Carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases are the main drivers of global warming. While climate change cannot be stopped, it can be slowed. To avoid the worst consequences of climate change, we'll need to reach “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050 or sooner.

What is the best country to live in to avoid global warming? ›

A paper published by the Anglia Ruskin University in the United Kingdom has identified five countries in geographical locations with “favourable starting conditions” that may allow them to be less touched by the effects of climate change: New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Ireland.

Is the US the number one contributor to global warming? ›

Because fossil fuels are widely used and traded globally, reducing U.S. domestic supply is unlikely to have much effect on global GHG emissions. However, the United States is the world's second largest GHG emitter and 77% of U.S. GHG emissions come from fossil fuel combustion.

What is the biggest pollution problem in the world? ›

Plastic Pollution

The world generates 300 million tonnes of plastic waste each year. A report by science journal, Nature, determined that currently, roughly 14 million tons of plastic make their way into the oceans every year, harming wildlife habitats and the animals that live in them.

What are the 3 forces that cause Earth's climate to change naturally? ›

These have been caused by many natural factors, including changes in the sun, emissions from volcanoes, variations in Earth's orbit and levels of carbon dioxide (CO2).

What are the three problems of the earth? ›

The list of issues surrounding our environment go on, but there are three major ones that affect the majority of them overall: global warming and climate change; water pollution and ocean acidification; and loss of biodiversity.

What are three factors that could be responsible for changing Earth's climate? ›

Causes of Climate Change
  • Heat-trapping Greenhouse Gases And The Earth's Climate. ...
  • Greenhouse Gases. ...
  • Reflectivity or Absorption of the Sun's Energy. ...
  • Changes in the Earth's Orbit and Rotation. ...
  • Variations in Solar Activity. ...
  • Changes in the Earth's Reflectivity. ...
  • Volcanic Activity.
Apr 25, 2023

What is the moral lesson of the Inconvenient Truth? ›

Gore declares that there is a moral imperative to act to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. He suggests that the moral imperative derives from a duty we have to leave to future generations a planet as habitable as the one we inherited from our ancestors.

What is the context of the Inconvenient Truth? ›

An Inconvenient Truth is a documentary in which Al Gore describes the problems of climate change against the backdrop of the political climate of the time, including the hotly-debated 2000 election that cost him the presidency. The film won several awards including two Oscars and the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

What is an inconvenient truth summary? ›

What is Ted talk by Jonathan Foley The Other Inconvenient Truth about? ›

Talk details

A skyrocketing demand for food means that agriculture has become the largest driver of climate change, biodiversity loss and environmental destruction. Jonathan Foley shows why we desperately need to begin "terraculture" -- farming for the whole planet.

What was the moral of the lesson? ›

The moral of a story is the lesson that story teaches about how to behave in the world. Moral comes from the Latin word mores, for habits. The moral of a story is supposed to teach you how to be a better person. If moral is used as an adjective, it means good, or ethical.

What is 7 the primary purpose of Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth 1 point? ›

An Inconvenient Truth presents in film form an illustrated talk on climate by Al Gore, aimed at alerting the public to an increasing "planetary emergency" due to global warming, and shows re-enacted incidents from his life story which influenced his concerns about environmental issues.

Who is responsible for greenhouse effect? ›

Carbon Dioxide Emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities. In 2021, CO2 accounted for 79% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.

What are the rhetorical devices in the Inconvenient Truth? ›

To persuade the world, Gore uses three rhetorical strategies: pathos (the use of emotions), logos (the use of facts), and ethos (the use of speaker 's authority and honesty). By using these three rhetorical strategies from Aristotle, Gore wants to persuade the world to something about global warming and save the Earth.

What was the impact of An Inconvenient Truth? ›

Measuring the film's impact

Several studies have experimentally tested the impact of viewing the film. A UK study found that showing selective clips from AIT resulted in participants feeling more empowered and more motivated to make lifestyle changes to fight climate change.

What is the meaning of convenient truth? ›

Convenient truth

It is the truth that people seek when they want to be right when they suspect they are wrong. In relation to time, convenient truth is about now and worries little about the past or future.

What actions can individuals take to reduce their carbon footprint and combat global warming? ›

Walk, bike, or take public transport

For longer distances, consider taking a train or bus. And carpool whenever possible. Living car-free can reduce your carbon footprint by up to 2 tons of CO2e per year compared to a lifestyle using a car.

What is the main message of Ted talk? ›

To get right to business, a TED talk is a short presentation that focuses on technology, entertainment, and/or design.

What was the primary message from the TED talk lessons from an ad man? ›

Talk details

Advertising adds value to a product by changing our perception, rather than the product itself. Rory Sutherland makes the daring assertion that a change in perceived value can be just as satisfying as what we consider “real” value -- and his conclusion has interesting consequences for how we look at life.

What is the main point Stevenson is making during his TED talk? ›

Bryan Stevenson's Ted Talk was almost 60% pathos.

He uses this light, touching tone to set the stage for something much more important—that inequality and racism in this country have led to the imprisonment of too many poor, black youth and that their identity is unfairly judged based on one moment in their lives.

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