By: Sheridan Meek, Senior Research Economist, Florida Chamber Foundation
Florida has seen rapid population growth over the past few years, adding over 1 million net new residents since the release of the Florida 2030 Blueprint. Looking ahead to 2024, the Florida Chamber Foundation has forecasted another 225,000-275,000 new Floridians in its recently released economic predictions for 2024.
Florida’s recent historic levels of population growth are due to the exponential changes in overall net migration. However, when you break down the growth by inbound and outbound migration, migration out has remained steady, growing 1.5% per year on average over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, migration into Florida grew an average of 3.7% per year. Trends in these metrics were clear – more and more people are moving into Florida, with little change to the number leaving. However, as we looked at what is happening in Florida’s economy going into 2024 (slower – but not negative – economic growth), we anticipate that a slowing economy will go hand in hand with slower population growth.
This slower migration will be due to increases in out-migration, rather than declines in in-migration. Florida continues to have a reputation as the best place to live and work, which attracts new residents. Florida has seen gains in population over the last 5 years from states like New York, New Jersey, and Illinois, that greatly outpace any migration out of Florida. However, as Florida attracts new residents, the rapid population growth also contributes to higher prices. The low cost of living that Florida used to boast has waned, and those who moved here in pursuit of more affordable living could be looking elsewhere.
Another metric that supports this is where these people are moving. Latest data shows that we lost the most people to Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. These are states with either no income tax and/or a lower cost of living than Florida. The trend remains the same if you go back further – over the past five years we have lost the most net residents to North Carolina, Texas and Georgia. We expect to see a continued outflow of people to those and other similar states in 2024 – but we also see that there is clearly an opportunity to right the ship as affordability increasingly reveals itself to be the big pressure point here.
In the graph below, you can see the comparison of migration into Florida verses migration out of Florida. The past few years, migration into Florida has been the driver of net migration, while migration out has remained steady. So, an expected rise in migration out of Florida, based on trends we are seeing in housing and cost of living, is what will lead to that smaller growth in 2024. Although the growth will be smaller, it will still be substantial, and could even be more sustainable. Gaining residents from 37 of the 50 states over the last five years has created momentum that Florida can capitalize on, especially if this upcoming year’s trends are used as fuel towards protecting Florida’s cost of living and keeping Floridians in Florida.
The past few years, migration into Florida has been the driver of net migration
net migration
The net migration rate is the difference between the number of immigrants (people coming into an area) and the number of emigrants (people leaving an area) divided by the population.
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Net_migration_rate
, while migration out has remained steady. So, an expected rise in migration out of Florida, based on trends we are seeing in housing and cost of living, is what will lead to that smaller growth in 2024.
"Every day someone is moving to the Florida area." Florida's been a popular destination for a while - this is the ninth year in a row the Sunshine State's ranked among U-Haul's top four places to move.
It's boosting the state's economy, but living there comes with hidden costs. People are moving to Florida in record numbers, and not just retirees. Young people are being lured by the weather, a lack of state income tax, and more job opportunities.
According to StorageCafe, Florida saw a net influx of 238,000 residents that year, putting it in first place in the U.S. In 2022, the most recent year for which Census data is available, 736,000 people moved to Florida, while 497,000 people left.
In recent years, California has seen a mass migration out off the state — a phenomenon that people call the “California Exodus.” Between April 2020 and July 2022, The Los Angeles Times reported the number of people moving out of California was more than 700,000.
The past few years, migration into Florida has been the driver of net migration, while migration out has remained steady. So, an expected rise in migration out of Florida, based on trends we are seeing in housing and cost of living, is what will lead to that smaller growth in 2024.
1. Gainesville. Home to the University of Florida Gators, Gainesville, in Alachua county, ranks as the best city to move to in Florida. At 3.7%, Gainesville's unemployment rate is lower than the state average.
The summit of Britton Hill, the state of Florida's highest point at 345 feet (105 m). The hill is located in northern Walton County near the town of Lakewood, Florida, just off County Road 285 about two miles (three kilometers) southeast of Florala, Alabama.
The latest census data shows Polk County is not only the fastest-growing county in Florida, but also the top county in the U.S. where people are moving in.
We're seeing more people move to the Southern Appalachian region, which includes states like North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama. People are also continuing to move to select Florida cities and long-standing retirement favorites such as Boise, Portland (ME), and Phoenix.
Not only does Florida not tax capital gains, it has no state income tax or estate tax. That makes it ideal for the ultrawealthy who are considering estate planning, says Garcia. He expects more to move to the Sunshine State in the near future.
Not only does it provide a tropical climate, but it also boasts a tax-friendly environment. With no state income tax, tax-free retirement benefits, and no estate or inheritance taxes, Florida allows you to keep more of your hard-earned money.
In a report from late November, the agency announced that the number of people moving into Florida was much higher than the national average, while outmigration rates have been lower. This means that more people are coming into the state, and fewer people are leaving.
How has Florida's population changed over the years? Florida's population increased 12 out of the 12 years between year 2010 and year 2022. Its largest annual population increase was 2% between 2015 and 2016. Between 2010 and 2022, the state grew by an average of 1.4% per year.
Florida has its challenges, like the hot weather and occasional storms. But for many people, the good outweighs the bad. They find happiness and fulfillment in the Sunshine State.
Introduction: My name is Stevie Stamm, I am a colorful, sparkling, splendid, vast, open, hilarious, tender person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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