Best Housing Markets for Growth and Stability - 2023 Edition - SmartAsset (2024)

FAQs

Is 2023 a good time to invest in real estate? ›

Despite what some may think, 2023 is still a good year to invest in real estate, thanks to advantages like long-term appreciation, steady rental income, and the opportunity to hedge against inflation. Mortgage rates are expected to decline, but the housing market is likely to remain competitive due to low supply.

2023 is a balanced year for housing supply and demand. This is ideal for retail purchasers and rental property investors. No longer a “seller's” market. Rising interest rates raise the monthly mortgage payment, which reduces homebuyers and lowers property values.

According to the CoreLogic HPI Forecast, home prices are projected to continue their upward trajectory. The forecast indicates an expected month-over-month increase of 0.8% from March 2023 to April 2023 and a year-over-year increase of 4.6% from March 2023 to March 2024.

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

“[W]ith the rate of inflation decelerating rates should gently decline over the course of 2023.” Fannie Mae. 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.4% for Q2 2023, according to the May Housing Forecast.

Economic factors, such as inflation, have a direct impact on the real estate market. As with other goods and services, real estate prices may rise alongside inflation. This is due to the fact that real estate is commonly considered a safe and stable investment that can be used to combat the effects of inflation.

The poll of 29 analysts, conducted between Feb. 15 and March 2, forecast average home prices based on the Case/Shiller index, which rose around 6% last year, were forecast to decline 4.5% in 2023, followed by no increase in 2024. That is slightly less than the 5.6% fall predicted three months ago.

Will house prices go down in 2023 usa? ›

Although home prices are expected to improve in the second half of the year, the California median home price is projected to decrease by 5.6 percent to $776,600 in 2023, down from the median price of $822,300 recorded in 2022.

Home sales also declined by 3.4% between March 2023 and April 2023. Experts at Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group believe that the housing market downturn could lead to a “modest recession” overall in the second half of 2023.

With mortgage rates declining faster than expected, home prices are likely to remain mostly flat throughout 2024. This will be good news for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for a good time to enter the market.

During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers.

These organizations predict that mortgage rates will decline through the first quarter of 2024. Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors expect mortgage rates to drop through the first quarter of 2024, by half a percentage point to about nine-tenths of a percentage point.

No matter how much their annual salary may be, most millionaires put their money where it will grow, usually in stocks, bonds, and other types of stable investments. Millionaires put their money into places where it will grow such as mutual funds, stocks and retirement accounts.

Overall, the Florida housing market is likely to remain strong in 2023, with continued demand for homes and steady price growth. However, the market may begin to stabilize as the growth rate slows down, which may lead to more balanced conditions between buyers and sellers.

While some areas may experience an increase in housing prices, others may experience a decline. In Dallas, TX, housing prices are expected to decrease by 0.1% as of April 2023, followed by a further decline of 0.3% in June 2023, but are projected to increase by 0.7% by March 2024.

What is the housing market forecast for DFW in 2023? ›

By December 2023, the median price is forecast to be $351,000, a 4% decline from $365,000 year-over-year.

Mortgage rates continue to confound expectations. In 2022, rates surged past 7 percent far faster than anyone predicted. Then, in 2023, mortgage rates calmed, leading many observers to predict rates would fall all the way to the low 5 percent range this year.

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates will fall to 5.5 percent by the end of 2023 as the economy weakens. The group revised its forecast upward a bit — it previously expected rates to fall to 5.3 percent.

Meanwhile, Scotiabank predicted as of 28 April the US interest rates to stay at 5.25% for 2023, and fall to 3.5% in 2024. In the short-term, analysts believed that the Fed is likely to keep the current rate on hold for the near future, provided inflation doesn't spike again.

Bonds or debt funds that invest in bonds are linked closely to interest rates in the economy, which works closely with the inflation rates. If inflation rises, interest rates rise. Interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions. Hence bond prices will fall in this case.

Rental income: Real estate investments can provide a steady stream of rental income, which can also help beat inflation. Rents tend to increase over time, particularly in areas with strong job growth and population growth. This means that rental income can also increase over time, providing a hedge against inflation.

Along those lines, organizations like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will decline throughout 2023, continuing into the first quarter of 2024.

Both estimates are largely in line with fresh projections from officials in March. The Fed penciled in a 5-5.25 percent peak interest rate for 2023, after which officials see rates falling to 4.25-4.5 percent by the end of 2024.

What will the stock market do in 2023? ›

Looking ahead to second-quarter reports, analysts are calling for S&P 500 earnings to fall 6.4% compared to a year ago. Fortunately, analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth will rebound back into positive territory in the second half of 2023.

For example, the Phoenix metro area is projected to experience a 0.9% decline in housing prices by the end of February 2023, followed by a further 1.6% decline by the end of April 2023.

Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Georgia is $362,600, up by 0.9% YoY. In 2023, experts predict the median sale price growth to drop by roughly 4%, the first annual drop since 2012. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 98.8%, with a decline of 3.0 pt YoY as of April 2023.

If you need to be occupying your home by a certain date to save on rent, it's a much better deal to close at the end of the previous month (for example, January 30) instead of the beginning of the current month (February 1).

Mortgage Bankers Association: The trade group's latest forecast has U.S. home prices, as measured by the FHFA US House Price Index, falling 0.6% in 2023 and another 1.4% dip in 2024. It then expects national home prices to rise 2.1% in 2025. (Forecast updated on April 17, 2023).

Average home price in the United States: $436,800

The median home sales price is $436,800 as of the first quarter of 2023. That's a 32% increase from 2020, when the median was $329,000.

However, believe it or not, home prices usually tend to drop in a recession. But they don't always decline in every downturn. Home prices dropped four out of five times in the last five recessions. They usually fall at an average of 5% each year the economy remains in a recession.

ING predicts rates to range from 5% in the second quarter of 2023, rising to 5.5% in the third quarter, and then falling back to 5% in the final quarter of the year. They also predict interest rates ranging between 3% and 4.25% in 2024, staying at 3% by the end of 2025.

“Typically, a housing market crash happens when a housing market bubble bursts,” Lippi explained. “A housing bubble occurs when the demand grows as more buyers continue to enter the market. This causes a shortage in supply, driving prices up. However, this phenomenon doesn't last.

“Returning to mortgage rates of 3% or 4% is not going to happen, in my view,” says Yun, who points out that historically rates have been higher. The low rates of 2020 and 2021 were “unique” and those that got them were “lucky,” he says.

Will 2026 be a good year to buy a house? ›

Housing Market Predictions 2026

A more conservative cohort predicts a more modest 10.3 percent growth in the same period. In addition, a mere 8 percent of poll participants expect the housing market to largely favor homebuyers in 2026.

Paying off your mortgage early can save you a lot of money in the long run. Even a small extra monthly payment can allow you to own your home sooner. Make sure you have an emergency fund before you put your money toward your loan.

Despite what some may think, 2023 is still a good year to invest in real estate, thanks to advantages like long-term appreciation, steady rental income, and the opportunity to hedge against inflation. Mortgage rates are expected to decline, but the housing market is likely to remain competitive due to low supply.

In addition, during recessions, people with access to cash are in a better position to take advantage of investment opportunities that can significantly improve their finances long-term.

Key Takeaways

Real estate is a great asset to own when the economy is in freefall. A rental property typically acts as a natural hedge in a volatile market. People lose their jobs, earnings, and sometimes their homes when a great recession happens.

“We expect that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.2%,” the organization noted in its forecast commentary. It since has walked back its forecast slightly but still sees rates dipping below 6%, to 5.6%, by the end of the year.

'I believe by the end of 2023 we will see rates start to fall with a target of between 2.5 to 3 per cent in 2024. 'I believe if the base rate can get back to circa 2.5 per cent, then we will see rates hovering around that mark with a return to products that have not been seen in the mortgage industry for some time.'

However, with the economy expected to cool and possibly dip into a recession, many recent forecasts expect rates to drop to 6% or below in 2024, including a Fannie Mae projection of 5.2%.

Land investment may not be as common as residential real estate, rental properties, or REITs, but it's looking like a solid choice in 2023, and beyond. Investments in land have steadily increased over the last decade. Investors may purchase land for agricultural purposes or residential and commercial real estate.

Is House Flipping Profitable in 2023? Yes! If you get the basics right, flipping homes in California is easier in 2023 than flipping homes in 2021's competitive market. You Make Money When You Buy Your Flip: Stick to the home flipper's 70% rule.

What is the cap rate for real estate in 2023? ›

In Q1 2023, the average going-in cap rate, which is based on the first year of net operating income at the property purchase price, increased 23 basis points to 4.72%, “marking the first significant quarterly deceleration in cap rate expansion since the Fed began its latest round of rate hikes,” according to CBRE.

According to real estate brokerage Redfin, the year-over-year median home price in Utah has declined 6.2%, 23% fewer homes have been sold and homes are on the market a median of 37 more days.

Overall, it's cheaper to build a home than to buy one in California, with 13 out of the 20 counties saving you money if you decide to build your house from scratch. Budget-wise, building is more favorable in Southern California whereas Central California caters best to those interested in buying.

Perhaps there's a perfect property that comes up for sale and you don't want to lose it, so buying the land now and building later makes sense. From a financial perspective, it may be much more feasible to split up the investments and have time to rebuild your savings before being ready to build.

Is buying land a good investment? In most cases, the answer is yes – as long as you're properly prepared. Investing in undeveloped land, however, isn't quite as simple as putting money down on a duplex. To ensure you're making an informed decision, we've outlined our top seven tips to know before purchasing land.

The 70% rule can help flippers when they're scouring real estate listings for potential investment opportunities. Basically, the rule says real estate investors should pay no more than 70% of a property's after-repair value (ARV) minus the cost of the repairs necessary to renovate the home.

Utah and Missouri establish themselves as the best places to flip houses in terms of low remodeling costs. New Jersey, meanwhile, has the lowest rental vacancy rate. West Virginia boasts the highest homeownership rate in the US and the lowest housing costs.

Going-in-cap rate is the cap rate based on the ratio of the first year of net operating income to the property purchase price. For example, if a property is expected to generate a first year net operating income (NOI) of $100,000 and is valued at $1,250,000, it would have a cap rate of 8.0% ($100,000 / $1,250,000).

Probably the most interesting observation that can be made is the ~94 bps cap rate compression on bank transactions, which registered an average cap rate of 5.97% in Q4 2022 vs. 5.03% in Q1 2023. In Q3 2022, we tracked 494 deals with an average cap rate of 5.67% and an average term remaining of 12.0 years.

What is the future of the cap rates? ›

With interest rates expected to peak later this year, the end of cap rate expansion may be in sight for most asset types. CBRE forecasts that the federal funds rate will likely exceed 5% in 2023, falling to about 2% by 2025.

The Ogden-Clearfield metro area in Utah is the most “overvalued” market in the state, according to Moody's, estimating the area is overvalued by over 50%. Logan comes next, estimated to be overvalued by almost 44%. Salt Lake City is estimated to be overvalued by over 28%.

Why Are Home Prices So High in Utah? Utah boasts the nation's strongest pace of job growth, along with rock-bottom unemployment, ultra-low mortgage rates, few mortgage delinquencies, and low state and local taxes.