Australia outperforming foreign real estate - so why is it ranked the second most risky in the world? (2024)

Australian property markets are a bit of a mixed bag at the moment but one thing is clear – it’s performing more robustly than much of the rest of the world.

Last month’s slight uptick in Australian property values may or may not have been the start of a more sustained turnaround after a year of price declines but compared to global trends it’s looking like a bit of an outlier in 2023.

In the past three months Australia’s property values have slipped 0.6 per cent this year after the quarterly declined was halved by the March upturn.

Two-thirds of the economies for which the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) tracks, housing prices saw declines for their most recent quarter of available data.

Of 46 economies included in the OECD’s house price analysis, only 15 had prices rise, while the likes of Denmark, New Zealand, Sweden and Canada had dived by more than 4 per cent in just a few months and a majority of others had dipped by at least 2 per cent.

Australia outperforming foreign real estate - so why is it ranked the second most risky in the world? (1)

None of this, however, has stopped the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from, on Monday (17 April), ranking Australia as the second-highest country for ‘housing market risk’ out of 27 countries, behind only Canada.

The IMF scored countries on five different measures of housing market risk and argued that Australia was susceptible to high levels of debt compared to income and an overexposure to rising variable rates and could expect to fall from lofty price growth in the two years from March 2020.

“Every percentage point increase in the mortgage rate raises monthly interest payments for the average US homebuyer by $100, and the impacts can be more dire for buyers in countries with a predominance of adjustable rate mortgages (such as Australia),” the report noted.

Eliza Owen, Head of Residential Research, CoreLogic, countered the IMF finding, pointing out that a sharp decline in home values has already occurred.

National home values declined a record 9.1 per cent from their peak in April 2022, before recovering 0.6 per cent last month.

“While it may still be too early to call the bottom of the market, the steep price falls to date have seen limited increases in home loan defaults or forced sales,” Ms Owen said in response to the IMF research.

“Ultimately, the IMF reporting is important as it highlights key vulnerabilities in housing markets that exacerbate the risk associated with a surge in unemployment, but for now, there is room for cautious optimism about the Australian housing market.

“Many households have accrued strong savings buffers through the low interest rate period, and labour markets remain extremely tight.

“Housing market conditions are turning a corner amid low stock levels, rising demand from overseas migration, and consumer sentiment shifting higher as we approach what may be the end of the rate-tightening cycle.”

Global property dependent on central banks

A separate IMF report published by the World Economic Forum, also on Monday, stated that global housing markets are retreating after years of steady gains.

“Property markets should enjoy greater stability when central banks slow or pause their campaign of raising interest rates to tame inflation,” the IMF said.

“How long the decline in housing prices continues will depend on whether the rate hikes by central banks have already curtailed inflationary pressures.”

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook update forecasts inflation to be lower this year than it was in 2022 for about 85 percent of countries. Global inflation is expected to slow from almost 9 percent last year to about 6.5 percent this year and decelerate further next year, driven by the impact that rate hikes have already had on easing supply bottlenecks.

“If central banks slow or pause rate hikes, housing prices should then see greater stability,” the report noted.

A look at property around the world

Just 10 countries contain 70 per cent ($141.5 trillion) of all global commercial and residential value (totalling $200 trillion). China and the US together make up 42 per cent ($84.8 trillion) of global property value alone.

According to Savills, China is home to more of the world real estate market assets (by value) than any other country at $42.7 trillion or 21 per cent of global real estate value, just ahead of the US at $42.1 trillion.

Japan, the UK, India, Germany, France, Brazil, Italy and Russia round off the top 10, between them accounting for 28 per cent, or $56.8 trillion, of the global real estate asset total.

Savills estimates total residential and commercial property worldwide to be worth just over US$200 trillion. The vast majority of this is residential, accounting for 84 per cent, or $168.5 trillion.

Australia outperforming foreign real estate - so why is it ranked the second most risky in the world? (2)

Source: Savills.

A look at property markets around the word reveals most of facing a period of further downturns or the least, uncertainty.

United States

Following a 2.5 per cent drop in the second half of 2022, there is little consensus among economists, mortgage firms, banks, and real estate firms regarding whether the historically tight U.S. housing market will reverse course in 2023.

House prices soared 33 per cent during the two years of the pandemic

Home lender Freddie Mac’s Economic & Housing Research Group expects house prices to decline modestly in 2023 and predicts mortgage rates will drop from an average of 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023. By comparison, Australia’s average mortgage rate is currently at 6.17 per cent.

The accounting firm KPMG’s forecast for the housing market in 2023 is bleaker.

It expects home prices to fall between 7 per cent and 10 per cent.

Existing home sales are predicted to drop by 23 per cent from 2022, which would be a decrease not seen since 2007. The drop is expected to be driven by single-family home sales due to the limited supply and high prices, however, high-rise apartments (condos) are predicted to fare better.

China

China’s property market crash has made world headlines, accompanied by images and tales of empty ghost cities, public protests that would usually be suppressed and homebuyers threatening repayment boycotts, and the collapse or financial deterioration of massive developers.

As some banks resort to allowing borrowers to pay off mortgages until they are 95-years-old, the country’s a historic property market downturn continues to spiral. New home prices had fallen for 16 straight months through December. Sales by the country’s top 100 developers last year were only 60 per cent of 2021 levels, according to CNN.

An astonishing 70 per cent of Chinese household wealth is now tied up in real estate.

China’s Bureau of National Statistics says the property market dropped 5.1 per cent in 2022 but unrest has been strongest in smaller cities, in many of which prices are believed to have fallen by 20 to 30 per cent.

Fitch Ratings says there are signs of the China property market stabilising but forecasts a 0 per cent-5 per cent decline in national new home sales and largely stable home prices this year, following a 28 per cent drop in sales in 2022.

United Kingdom

UK house prices annual decline had reached by 3.1 per cent in March, the biggest annual drop since 2009.

March’s fall of 0.8 per cent was the seventh monthly decline in a row and leaves prices 4.6 per cent below their most recent peak in August.

Halifax has forecast that average UK prices will fall by about 8 per cent this year, which it said, “would place the average property price back at roughly the level it was in April 2021, reversing only some of the gains made during the pandemic”.

The average price of a home in the UK is now A$476,000, compared to $764,000 in Australia.

Analysts have said that an expected fall in interest rates later this year could spur a pickup in sales, but that prices were likely to continue to fall.

Australia outperforming foreign real estate - so why is it ranked the second most risky in the world? (2024)

FAQs

Why is Australia's housing market so high? ›

High house prices in Australia are primarily driven by supply and demand imbalances, tax policies, low-interest rates, and rising household debt.

Why is property investment so popular in Australia? ›

Australia's population growth, favourable taxation regime, historic low interest rates, growth in property values and use of investment properties as a retirement asset are all contributing to this popularity.

How bad is the housing market in Australia? ›

According to Domain figures, the value of Australia's housing market fell by -5% across capital cities in 2022. Sydney dropped by -10.9% and Melbourne was down -5.9%. While Canberra and Brisbane house values fell by -6% and -1.1% respectively last year. Most of the damage was done by the end of spring selling season.

Has Australia ever crashed the housing market? ›

There is good news and bad news. The bad news is that the good news is more likely than not bad news. In any event, the good news is that the great Aussie housing crash, which has seen national prices fall about 10 per cent from their peak – the second-largest slump in 43 years – has suddenly stalled.

Why is Australia in a housing crisis? ›

Migration/population growth

Australia's population has jumped more than 30% over the last two decades to the current 26 million. A big reason for this has been the much higher net immigration rate since the mid-2000s, which has fuelled demand for new homes.

Why is housing a problem in Australia? ›

Australia's current housing crisis is driven by the nation's unique demographics and a shortage of available residential land near jobs and services, with the impact of interest rates and government homebuyer subsidies often overstated.

Is Australia good for real estate investment? ›

The answer to whether the property in Australia is a good investment can depend on various factors, such as location, market trends, and economic conditions. However, historically, property in Australia has been considered a stable and lucrative investment.

Why can foreigners buy property in Australia? ›

Provided that foreign investors are contributing to economic growth and have the necessary approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board's approval, they are permitted to purchase new dwellings and vacant land.

Is property investment a good idea in Australia? ›

Investing in property can be a good way to build wealth – but there are several factors you need to consider. The potential tax benefits and wealth generation make real estate an attractive investment option for many Australians, but it is not without any drawbacks.

What is the average price of a house in Australia? ›

Average House Prices in Australia averaged 654.79 AUD Thousand from 2011 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 961.10 AUD Thousand in the second quarter of 2022 and a record low of 486.30 AUD Thousand in the third quarter of 2012. This page includes a chart with historical data for Australia Mean Dwelling Price.

Why is housing so unaffordable in Australia? ›

House prices in Australia are extremely high compared to income, relative to other countries. The market is propped up by rules that provide tax deductions for property investment, and by repeated state government bonuses for first home buyers. Furthermore, the supply of new homes is hard to generate.

Is Australia in a real estate bubble? ›

Australian property values experienced a downturn in 2022 and prices continue to fall—but predictions of the overall peak-to-trough price decline tend to vary between 15-25%. Read more about whether the Australian property market is going to crash.

Is Australia in a boom or recession? ›

A growing economy that outperforms in global rankings. While many major economies are at risk of recession in 2023, the IMF has forecast that the Australian economy will continue to grow. Our positive outlook is built on strong recent performance. During 2021, Australia outperformed peer economies, growing by 5.2%.

Are Australian house prices declining? ›

Australia has recorded its largest decline in property values on record, with values dropping by 7.9 per cent in a year and the median value of dwellings in more than 200 suburbs dipping below $1 million.

Will there be a housing crash in 2023 Australia? ›

Are we close to one in 2023? The housing market has softened compared to 2022, but it's not a risky environment; many precincts are still showing growth, so we think it's very unlikely Australia's real estate market will crash anytime soon.

Why is Australia so livable? ›

Living in Australia, you'll feel a deep sense of safety and freedom thanks to our enduring political stability and open, diverse society. Sydney and Melbourne ranked among the top 10 safest cities in the world in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Safe Cities Index 2021.

Does Australia have a problem with homelessness? ›

People experiencing homelessness, and those at risk of homelessness (see glossary), are among Australia's most socially and economically disadvantaged. Governments across Australia fund services to support people who are homeless, or at risk of homelessness.

What is the future of housing in Australia? ›

Australia needs to build an additional three million homes over the next two decades to provide the needed infrastructure to house Australia's growing population. By 2041 we will have 13 million homes, up from 10 million in 2021.

What are the cons of living in Australia? ›

Cons of Living in Australia
  • High Cost of Living. ...
  • A sense of Isolation. ...
  • Expensive Healthcare Insurance. ...
  • Extreme Weather Conditions and Natural Disasters. ...
  • Australian Law Allows Creditors to Force You Into Bankruptcy. ...
  • Racism. ...
  • Culture Shock and Language Barrier. ...
  • High Cost of Education for International Students.

What are the problems of living in Australia? ›

While the standard of living in Australia is high, so is the cost of living. In fact, Australia is often ranked as one of the most expensive countries in the world to live in. This is due to a number of factors, including the high cost of housing, food, and transportation.

Why do they move whole houses in Australia? ›

People used to do it because it was cheaper but these days you get more people doing it because of the value of the land especially around Byron Bay. An old house restored has got better resale than a new similar priced project home. It has more character and style and the market for them is much stronger.”

Is it expensive to buy a house in Australia? ›

The June 2022 quarter saw the median house price across the combined capitals fall -0.9% from last quarter, where median prices sat at $1,074,676 to $1,065,447. Despite this slight decrease, the national median price for a house is still 10.9% higher than this time last year.

How profitable is real estate in Australia? ›

CoreLogic's latest Pain & Gain Report, which analysed approximately 102,000 property resales that occurred in the June 2022 quarter, showed Australia's profit-making sales plateaued at 93.8% when compared to the previous three months.

What is the 2% rule in real estate? ›

2% Rule. The 2% rule is the same as the 1% rule – it just uses a different number. The 2% rule states that the monthly rent for an investment property should be equal to or no less than 2% of the purchase price. Here's an example of the 2% rule for a home with the purchase price of $150,000: $150,000 x 0.02 = $3,000.

Can you buy property in Australia as a US citizen? ›

Can foreigners buy property in Australia? Yes. Non-Australians can buy property in Australia as investments. In Australia, foreign property purchases are regulated by FIRB (meaning foreign buyers must apply for approval through the FIRB before buying residential real estate) and there are limitations in place.

Can I buy property in Australia without being a citizen? ›

Typically you need to be a permanent resident or citizen to buy property in Australia and many of the available home loans also require you to be Aussie. But don't fret, foreigners can still buy: the property needs to be categorised as an investment and you need to get government approval.

Can a non citizen buy property in Australia? ›

Normally, only individuals who are not permanent residents or temporary residents seeking to buy property in Australia need to apply for FIRB approval. Therefore, the following groups of people do not need to apply for FIRB approval: Australian citizens, regardless of their residence status.

What is the average return on real estate in Australia? ›

Average real estate return on investment

The average rental yield in Australia is around 8%, with 1% accounting for ongoing costs like dues, strata and insurance fees.

What are the best assets to invest in Australia? ›

There's a wide choice of assets to invest in—from physical assets such as property, classic cars, fine wine and jewellery to financial assets such as shares, funds and bonds. If you're looking to invest in financial assets, it's important to spread your investment across different asset types.

What is the average property return in Australia? ›

Average rental yield of houses Australia Q4 2021-2022, by capital city. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the average rental yield of houses in Sydney, New South Wales, was 2.87 percent.

Are houses cheaper in America or Australia? ›

So when the average house price in Australia is compared with the United States, the numbers demonstrate a huge divide. It turns out that the cost of the average house price in the US is less than 1500 euros ($AU 2541) per square metre, but down under it's more than 5000 euros ($AU 8470) per square metre.

Is Australia cheaper than USA? ›

But how expensive is it? Australia currently has the 12th highest cost of living in the world, with the USA and UK well behind at 21 and 23rd place respectively. The overall cost of living in Australia is 9% higher than the USA, but 10% cheaper than London.

What is the cheapest place to live in Australia? ›

5 Cheapest Places to Live in Australia
  • Adelaide. Bursting with culture, events, entertainment, and flavor, Adelaide is regarded as Australia's food and wine capital. ...
  • Cairns. The city of Cairns in northern Queensland lies some 2500 km north of Adelaide. ...
  • Sunshine Coast. ...
  • Geelong. ...
  • Perth.

Who is buying all the houses in Australia? ›

Buyers from China dominate foreign investment in Australian residential real estate, with $1.6 billion in proposed purchases approved in the six months to the end of December last year, official figures show.

Why is housing so unaffordable in the US? ›

Strained affordability has seen many homebuilders turn to smaller units. The Pandemic Housing Boom, which pushed national home prices up over 40%, coupled with last year's mortgage rate shock, has resulted in a deterioration of housing affordability.

What is the most expensive state for housing in Australia? ›

The most expensive place for housing in Australia is Sydney.

What happens to house prices in a recession Australia? ›

Prices could fall further

If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.

What will happen to Australia's housing market? ›

"Our forecasts imply that the share of income required to pay the mortgage on a median-priced [home] will fall to around 35 per cent by 2025, which would still be well above its long-term average of 30.5 per cent. Accordingly, the risks are tilted towards even larger falls in house prices."

Is Australia richer than the US? ›

Australians are the richest people in the world, with a median wealth three times that of the average American, a new report has shown.

What is Australia's main source of income? ›

Individuals income tax. Individuals' income tax is the single most important source of government revenue. Since the mid 1970s it has consistently raised around half of the Australian Government's tax receipts and continues to be a stable and predictable source of revenue.

Why is inflation so high in Australia? ›

The single biggest cause of inflation is when the demand for goods and services outstrips supply. This results in businesses increasing their costs, because they know that only a small number of customers will go elsewhere.

Are houses getting smaller in Australia? ›

Reasons behind the steady decline and trend towards smaller lot sizes over the past decade include the increasing cost of land, a high proportion of new housing being built in urban infill areas and more double storey houses being built to maximise floor space on the smaller blocks.

How much will the average house cost in Australia 2023? ›

Median dwelling prices in Sydney

This is not surprising, as forecasting in October 2022 from big four bank, NAB, predicted that the value of the median-priced house in Sydney would fall by $175,087 to $1,108,415 by the end of 2023.

Where are house prices dropping in Australia? ›

New capital city listings per capita in April fell by 26 per cent compared with the decade average prior to the pandemic. On this metric all the major capitals recorded sizeable falls, with Darwin experiencing the smallest fall at 27.5 per cent and Brisbane the largest fall down 47.5 per cent.

Is the US headed for a housing crisis in 2023? ›

It's also worth noting that while foreclosure rates are up year-over-year, experts do not expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2023, even where home values are depreciating, as many homeowners have substantial equity due to progressive home price appreciation in recent years.

Why are houses so expensive in Australia? ›

High house prices in Australia are primarily driven by supply and demand imbalances, tax policies, low-interest rates, and rising household debt.

Is the property market going to crash in Australia? ›

There is also unlikely to be further decline in property prices this year, as the market is stabilizing as interest rate increases start to level off. There are still plenty of buyers in the market and a lack of supply, which is keeping prices up.”

Will house prices plummet in Australia? ›

House prices set to plummet by 20-25 per cent in 2023 | news.com.au — Australia's leading news site.

Is it expensive to live in Australia? ›

According to Expatistan, this means Australia is one of the most expensive places to live (ranked 13 out of 74). Generally, a higher cost of living means that basic expenses have become – well, expensive.

Is Australia experiencing a correction in the housing market? ›

Australia's housing sector experienced a material correction in 2022, with rapid rate rises driving significant declines in both prices (–9.7% between April 2022 and January 2023) and turnover (down about 30% over the same period).

Are houses more expensive in Australia? ›

House prices in Australia are extremely high compared to income, relative to other countries. The market is propped up by rules that provide tax deductions for property investment, and by repeated state government bonuses for first home buyers. Furthermore, the supply of new homes is hard to generate.

How is the housing market in Australia? ›

House prices in Sydney are down by 13.8% year-on-year and nationally by 7.2%. In late 2022, PropTrack's biannual Property Market Value Report said Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra home values could fall by between 8% to 11% in 2023, thanks to a combination of inflation, interest rate hikes and cost-of-living pressures.

Who is the biggest property owner in Australia? ›

The mining magnate Gina Rinehart is Australia's biggest landholder, controlling more than 9.2m hectares, or 1.2% of the entire landmass of the country, according to data compiled by Guardian Australia.

Why are Chinese buying property in Australia? ›

They are looking to upgrade.” He said Chinese first home buyers are “still not fully back into the market.” Australia has long appealed to Chinese buyers as it's in the same timezone and region as the mainland and has a reputation as a safe and environmentally clean destination.

What age do most Australians buy a house? ›

The mean age of people buying their first home in Australia has edged up from 33 for either a new or established dwelling in 1995–96 to 35 for a new dwelling and 36 for an established dwelling in 2017–18. Figure 1: Age bracket of first home buyers (by percentage) in 1995-96 and 2017-18.

Is it cheaper to live in USA or Australia? ›

Cost of living in United States is 8% more expensive than in Australia.

Is Health Care Free in Australia? ›

The Australian public accesses care within the public health system for free or at a lower cost through Medicare (funded by tax). The private system includes health service providers that are owned and managed privately, such as private hospitals, specialist medical and allied health, and pharmacies.

Is Australia more expensive to live than USA? ›

But how expensive is it? Australia currently has the 12th highest cost of living in the world, with the USA and UK well behind at 21 and 23rd place respectively. The overall cost of living in Australia is 9% higher than the USA, but 10% cheaper than London.

How much is a good house in Australia? ›

The June 2022 quarter saw the median house price across the combined capitals fall -0.9% from last quarter, where median prices sat at $1,074,676 to $1,065,447.

What is the average Australian house size? ›

Floor area of new houses

In 2012, the average floor area was 245 square metres and in 2021 the average was 242 square metres, a decrease of three square metres (-1%) over 10 years.

How much is an apartment in Australia? ›

Canberra and Sydney are the most expensive cities for renters with the median unit price coming in at $550 per week, followed by Darwin ($520 per week), Brisbane ($465 per week), and Hobart ($462.50 per week).

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Nathanial Hackett

Last Updated:

Views: 6373

Rating: 4.1 / 5 (52 voted)

Reviews: 91% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Nathanial Hackett

Birthday: 1997-10-09

Address: Apt. 935 264 Abshire Canyon, South Nerissachester, NM 01800

Phone: +9752624861224

Job: Forward Technology Assistant

Hobby: Listening to music, Shopping, Vacation, Baton twirling, Flower arranging, Blacksmithing, Do it yourself

Introduction: My name is Nathanial Hackett, I am a lovely, curious, smiling, lively, thoughtful, courageous, lively person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.