Age 65+ Adults Are Projected to Outnumber Children by 2030 (2024)
By 2030, the United States for the first time will have more 65-and-older residents than children, the Census Bureau projected this week. All boomers and one-fifth of the total population will have reached the traditional retirement age of 65.
The agency’s projection marks a milestone for an aging society, and it reflects the ongoing impact of the giant boomer generation born in the aftermath of World War II.
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“The aging of baby boomers means that within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” said Jonathan Vespa, a demographer with the Census Bureau. “By 2035, there will be 78 million people 65 years and older, compared to 76.4 million under the age of 18.”
The 2030s will be “transformative,” the agency projects. It points to an older population that grows at a slower pace and is more racially diverse. Immigration will be the main driver of population growth in 2030, another first in U.S. history, as a rising number of deaths offset births.
As the population ages, the ratio of 65-plus residents to working-age adults is expected to rise. In 2020, the U.S. will have about 3 1/2 working-age adults for every retirement-age person. By 2060, the ratio will decline to just 2 1/2 working-age adults for every retirement-age person.
Other projections:
The median age is expected to rise from 38 today to 43 by 2060.
The population will gradually grow at a slower pace, by an average of 2.3 million a year until 2030, by 1.8 million a year between 2030 and 2040, and by 1.5 million a year from 2040 to 2060.
By 2060, the U.S. population will grow by 78 million, from about 326 million today to 404 million.
I've spent considerable time studying demographics and societal trends, particularly focusing on population dynamics and aging demographics. The data you mentioned aligns with the ongoing shift in the United States' population structure, where the number of individuals aged 65 and older is poised to surpass the population of children by 2030.
This shift is largely attributed to the aging baby boomer generation, born in the post-World War II era. By 2035, projections indicate a remarkable increase to 78 million individuals aged 65 years and older, outstripping the estimated 76.4 million individuals under the age of 18.
One critical aspect is the transformative nature of the 2030s, where we'll witness an older population growing at a slower pace while becoming increasingly racially diverse. Importantly, immigration will become a primary driver of population growth, marking a significant departure from historical trends, as the rising number of deaths offsets births.
The implications are profound. The ratio of individuals aged 65 and above to working-age adults is expected to rise substantially. In 2020, there were approximately 3.5 working-age adults for every retirement-age person. By 2060, this ratio is projected to decline to just 2.5 working-age adults for every retirement-age person, potentially impacting societal structures and the economy.
Moreover, the median age is expected to rise from 38 to 43 by 2060, highlighting the overall aging trend. Population growth will gradually slow down over the coming decades: an average of 2.3 million annually until 2030, followed by a decrease to 1.8 million a year between 2030 and 2040, and further down to 1.5 million annually from 2040 to 2060.
Ultimately, these trends point toward a substantial increase in the U.S. population by 2060, reaching an estimated 404 million from today's approximately 326 million.
This demographic shift will have multifaceted impacts on various sectors, including healthcare, social security systems, labor markets, and cultural dynamics, necessitating strategic planning and policy adaptations to accommodate this aging population and its implications on societal structures.
All boomers and 1 in 5 U.S. residents will have reached 'retirement age' As the population ages, the ratio of 65-plus residents to working-age adults is expected to rise. By 2030, the United States for the first time will have more 65-and-older residents than children, the Census Bureau projected this week.
In 2030, persons aged 65 and older will comprise 20 percent of the U.S. population. Women tend to live longer than men, which creates a gender disparity as the population ages (58 percent of the population 65 and older are women).
Between 1987 and 2030, the total U.S. population is projected to increase by 26 percent from 252 million to 317 million, while the population age 65 and older is expected to increase by more than 100 percent from the present 12 percent of the total population to nearly 21 percent of the total population (67 million) ( ...
By 2030, 1 in 6 people in the world will be aged 60 years or over. At this time the share of the population aged 60 years and over will increase from 1 billion in 2020 to 1.4 billion. By 2050, the world's population of people aged 60 years and older will double (2.1 billion).
In 2020, the bulge is higher, when boomers were ages 56 to 74 and nearly half were over 64. By 2030, all baby boomers will be age 65 and over and the growth in the older population is projected to start slowing.
The number of people aged 65-79 is predicted to increase by nearly a third (30%) to over 10 million in the next 40 years, while the number of people aged 80 and over – the fastest growing segment of the population – is set to more than double to over 6 million.
Starting in 2030, when all boomers will be older than 65, older Americans will make up 21 percent of the population, up from 15 percent today. By 2060, nearly one in four Americans will be 65 years and older, the number of 85-plus will triple, and the country will add a half million centenarians.
The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to increase from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million by 2050 (a 47% increase), and the 65-and-older age group's share of the total population is projected to rise from 17% to 23%.
Based on the latest findings, the bureau revealed that for the first time in a century the number of adults over 60 in the U.S. is greater than the number of children under 10 years old, per the American Enterprise Institute.
Most people begin to notice a shift in the appearance of their face around their 40's and 50's, with some also noticing a change in their 30's. But with these physical changes brought on by aging also comes a change in the appearance of our face - Luckily, there is treatment available.
Much of this growth will be prompted by the aging of the Baby Boomers, who in 2030 will be aged 66 to 84—the “young old”—and will number 61 million people. In addition to the Baby Boomers, those born prior to 1946—the “oldest old”—will number 9million people in 2030.
The world population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. As with any type of projection, there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding these latest population projections.
But what happens when boomers leave their residences as they die or move into nursing homes? Some economists have predicted that a "silver tsunami" of aging Americans will leave millions of homes up for grabs, lowering prices and unlocking opportunities for younger generations used to fighting for table scraps.
The youngest boomers today were born in 1964 making them about 59/58 years olds today. The average person lives to be about 77 (in the US at least) so that means that by 2041/2042 we should see most boomers dead or at least significantly decreasing. Some are outliers and will die a lot sooner or later than that though.
James Knickman and Emily Snell write, “The real challenges of caring for the elderly in 2030 will involve: (1) making sure society develops payment and insurance systems for long-term care that work better than existing ones, (2) taking advantage of advances in medicine and behavioral health to keep the elderly as ...
The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to increase from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million by 2050 (a 47% increase), and the 65-and-older age group's share of the total population is projected to rise from 17% to 23%.
New York, 21 June – The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today.
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