Foreword
Any collection of dividend stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, these US exchange sourced real estate investment trust stocks are perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is the April 3 data for 70 top dividend-paying net gain stocks as documented by YCharts data.
The Ides of March plunge in the stock market took its toll on these US REITs. Only one top ten US REIT by yield from March is back in the top ten for April. However, the drop in prices in all 50 US REITs (listed by yield) has made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more affordable for first-time investors.
Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 144.59% To 264.35% Net Gains By Top Ten US REITs Come April, 2021
Six of ten top dividend-yielding US Real Estate Investment Trust stocks found their way into the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, our yield-based forecast for REIT stocks was certified 60% accurate by broker target forecasts.
Projections of estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2020-21 data points. Note: one-year target prices from single analysts were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades projected by brokers to April, 2021 were:
Source: YCharts
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) was projected to net $2,643.47, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from six brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 31% greater than the market as a whole.
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) was projected to net $2,390.04 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from ten analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate's risk 32% greater than the market as a whole.
Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) was projected to net $2,030.95 based on dividends, plus target price estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 31% more than the market as a whole.
Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM) netted $1,950.86 based on a median target price estimate from seven analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 25% more than the market as a whole.
EPR Properties (EPR) was projected to net $1,933.92 based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimates from eleven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 43% more than the market as a whole.
Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) netted $1,513.47 based on a median target price estimate from eleven analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 37% more than the market as a whole.
Outfront Media Inc. (OUT) was found to net $1,476.76 based on the median target price estimate from ten analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 60% more than the market as a whole.
Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP) was projected to net $1,463.87, based on a median target estimate from seven analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 71% more than the market as a whole.
Urban Edge Properties (UE) was projected to net $1,461.22, based on target price estimates from four analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 38% more than the market as a whole.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) made the list with a projected net gain of $1,010.99, based on a median of target price estimates from seven analysts, plus their estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 32% greater than the market as a whole.
The average net gain for these ten was estimated at 183.11% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk 38% greater than the market as a whole.
Source: adogswayhomeparents.com
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".
50 Top US REITs By Target Gains
Source: YCharts
Top 50 US REITs By Yield
Source: YCharts
Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Yield Metrics Ranked 10 Top US REITs
Top ten US Real Estate Investment Trusts as selected 4/3/20 by yield represented four of nine constituent industries.
The first of five mortgage REIT industry representatives in the top ten claimed the first, second, fifth, sixth, and tenth places, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. [1]; Chimera Investment Corp. [2]; Starwood Property Trust Inc. [5]; AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) [6]; Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. [10].
Then three retail REITs placed third, fourth, and seventh on the list: EPR Properties [3], Retail Value Inc. (RVI) [4], and Kite Realty Group Trust [7]. A lone hotel & motel realty trust placed eighth, Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE) [8].
Finally, a lone representative from the diversified REIT industry placed ninth, CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust Inc. (CORR) [9] and completed the top ten April US REITs list by yield.
Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten US REITs Reported 131.43% To 235.22% Price Upsides To April, 2021; (22) No Downsides Were Detected By Broker Target Reckoning
Source: YCharts
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Broker Targets Predicted A 23.07% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced US REITs To April, 2021
Ten top US REITs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking. The list was limited to stocks reporting positive total annual returns.
Source: YCharts
As noted above, ten Real Estate top gainers selected 4/3/20 showing the highest dividend yields represented four of nine industries constituting the REIT sector, according to YCharts.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Charted 5 Lowest-Priced Of the Top Ten Highest-Yield US REIT Dogs (23) Delivering 183.10% Vs. (24) 148.78% Net Gains by All Ten, Come April 2021
Source: YCharts
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten REIT kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 23.07% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The very lowest priced of ten Real Estate top yield equities, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc., was projected to gain 264.35% per broker target price reckoning.
Source: YCharts
The five lowest-priced top yield US REITs as of April 3 were: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc.; Apple Hospitality REIT Inc.; Chimera Investment Corp.; Kite Realty Group Trust.; Starwood Property Trust Inc., with prices ranging from $5.31 to $9.28.
Five higher-priced top gain REITs were: AGNC Investment Corp.; Retail Value Inc.; Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.; CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust Inc.; EPR Properties, whose prices ranged from $9.51 to $19.80.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your United States Exchange Real Estate Investment Trust stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
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