National
Source: Registers of Scotland / UK HPI
Scottish House Price Performance: National
Average house prices in Scotland, as measured by the UK HPI, increased in Q4 2022 by 6.0% relative to Q4 2021. Although this remains a high level of annual house price growth, this is down from the 11.7% annual house price growth to Q2 2022. The average property price (geometric mean) in Scotland stood at £190K in Q4 2022. More recent monthly data (which is more volatile than the quarterly averages) shows that house price inflation had fallen to 1.0% in January 2023.
Data from Registers of Scotland showed similar annual house price inflation in Q4 2022, of 6.5%. Registers of Scotland data is not mix-adjusted, so will be affected by the composition of properties sold. The average (arithmetic mean) house price in Scotland as at Q4 2022 according to Registers of Scotland data was £221K.
UK HPI data shows that annual price growth to Q4 2022 was highest for detached properties (9.4%). Flats increased by the lowest amount (3.1%).
Scottish House Price Performance by Dwelling/Buyer Type
Chart 2.2 shows the rate of change in the average new and existing build property price in Scotland. This data is published with a lag relative to the headline HPI. In Q3 2022, the average Scottish new build property price increased to a greater extent than the existing build price, rising by an annual 11.0% to £280K. The average existing build price rose by 7.7% to £187K. The large rise in new build property prices can be partly explained by the large increase in new build construction prices (see Chart 10.3).
Source: UK HPI (Scotland)
The UK HPI also shows that the average price of a property bought by former owner occupiers in Scotland increased by an annual 6.4% in Q4 2022, to £230K. Meanwhile, the average price of a property purchased by a first-time buyer increased by an annual 5.5% in Q4 2022, to £152K.
Scottish House Price Performance: Regional
Registers of Scotland data show that house prices increased over the one year period to Q4 2022 for all regions in Scotland, although to a varying extent. The largest increase was in the Ayrshires and Dumfries & Galloway, where house prices increased 8.6% annually to 179K (average arithmetic mean price; prices not mix-adjusted). The smallest increase was in Aberdeen/shire and Moray, where prices increased by 1.2% annually to £211K.
The longer-term trend (as measured by the change in house prices over the four-quarter period to Q4 2022 over the previous four-quarter period) also shows that house price growth has been positive in all areas of Scotland. The strongest price growth was seen in Argyll & Bute and Highlands & Islands, where house prices increased by 9.3%, whilst the smallest increase in house prices was again seen in Aberdeen/shire and Moray, where house prices increased by 1.0%.
A summary of the average house price in Q4 2022 by Scottish region is included below. This also includes the annual change in the average house price in Q4 2022, as well as the annual change in the average house price using a rolling four quarter period to Q4 2022, which smooths out volatility in quarterly data (Source: Registers of Scotland).
Table 2.1 Regional house prices
Aberdeen/shire and Moray
Average Price – Q4 2022 £211K
12 Month Change 1.2%
Annual change (rolling 4 quarters) 1.0%
Edinburgh, Lothians and Borders
Average Price – Q4 2022 295K
12 Month Change 6.9%
Annual change (rolling 4 quarters) 7.2%
Argyll & Bute and Highland & Islands
Average Price – Q4 2022 £223K
12 Month Change 6.6%
Annual change (rolling 4 quarters) 9.3%
Forth Valley
Average Price – Q4 2022 £210K
12 Month Change 7 .5%
Annual change (rolling 4 quarters) 7 .5%
Ayrshires and Dumfries & Galloway
Average Price – Q4 2022 £179K
12 Month Change 8.6%
Annual change (rolling 4 quarters) 8.5%
Tayside and Fife
Average Price – Q4 2022 £206K
12 Month Change 5.8%
Annual change (rolling 4 quarters) 5.8%
Clyde Valley
Average Price – Q4 2022 £201K
12 Month Change 8.3%
Annual change (rolling 4 quarters) 7.4%
Scotland
Average Price – Q4 2022 £221K
12 Month Change 6.5%
Annual change (rolling 4 quarters) 6.6%
Source: Registers of Scotland
As a seasoned expert in real estate and housing market analysis, I bring forth a wealth of knowledge and experience to dissect the intricate details of the Scottish housing market performance, as outlined in the provided article. My expertise is rooted in years of studying housing trends, analyzing statistical data, and staying abreast of market fluctuations. Let's delve into the key concepts presented in the article.
1. National House Price Performance: The article begins by highlighting the national average house prices in Scotland, measured by the UK House Price Index (HPI). In Q4 2022, there was a 6.0% increase in average house prices compared to Q4 2021. However, this growth rate has decelerated from the 11.7% observed in the preceding quarter (Q2 2022). The average property price (geometric mean) in Scotland at Q4 2022 stood at £190K. Monthly data for January 2023 reveals a decrease in house price inflation to 1.0%.
2. Registers of Scotland Data: Registers of Scotland data is referenced, acknowledging that it is not mix-adjusted and can be influenced by the composition of properties sold. In Q4 2022, the arithmetic mean house price in Scotland, according to Registers of Scotland, was £221K. This source also provides insights into the varying growth rates among property types. Detached properties experienced the highest annual price growth at 9.4%, while flats had the lowest increase at 3.1%.
3. Property Types and Buyers: The UK HPI reveals that the average price of a property bought by former owner-occupiers in Scotland increased by 6.4% annually to £230K in Q4 2022. Conversely, first-time buyers saw a 5.5% annual increase, bringing the average price to £152K.
4. Regional House Price Performance: The article further dissects regional variations in house prices in Scotland. Notably, all regions experienced house price increases over the one-year period to Q4 2022, albeit to varying extents. The largest increase was observed in the Ayrshires and Dumfries & Galloway at 8.6%, while the smallest increase was in Aberdeen/shire and Moray at 1.2%. The longer-term trend, measured over a four-quarter period, indicates positive house price growth in all areas.
5. Summary of Regional House Prices: A detailed summary table is provided, showcasing the average house prices in various regions, along with annual changes both for Q4 2022 and a rolling four-quarter period. Edinburgh, Lothians, and Borders stand out with an average price of £295K in Q4 2022, experiencing a 6.9% annual change and 7.2% change over the rolling four quarters.
In conclusion, this comprehensive analysis paints a nuanced picture of the Scottish housing market, considering national and regional dynamics, property types, and buyer categories. The data, sourced from reputable entities like UK HPI and Registers of Scotland, provides a robust foundation for understanding the current state and trends in Scottish house prices.
