10 Headwinds the Real Estate Market Faces Next Year (2024)

Both the residential and commercial real estate markets face an “extraordinary era of unpredictability,” William McCarthy, 2023 global chair of The Counselors of Real Estate, said Friday at a session during NAR NXT, The REALTOR® Experience in Orlando, Fla. Whether it’s inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical risks, or labor shortages, issues of domestic and international importance are having an impact on real estate at the local level.

“Communities are reflected by the stability of their real estate market and the quality of people who choose to live and work there,” said McCarthy, president of W.P.J. McCarthy and Company in Burnaby, British Columbia. Addressing these key issues and how they could reshape communities are paramount, he said.

The Counselors of Real Estate surveyed its members to uncover the top 10 issues affecting real estate in the next year.

  1. 10 Headwinds the Real Estate Market Faces Next Year (2)

    Inflation and interest rates. These forces are having a surmountable impact on the housing market and consumers’ pocketbooks. Mortgage rates have more than doubled over the last few months, and inflation is at a 40-year high. “An economic slowdown is underway, and the greatest recession risk to real estate is whether rising unemployment and lower household income cuts demand for residential and commercial property,” the CRE report finds.
  2. Geopolitical risks. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and cybersecurity threats, among other risks, are creating uncertainty for financial markets. “Continued geopolitical uncertainty provides significant headwinds to the economy,” the report notes. “The longer it takes to moderate, the greater the negative implications for real estate.”
  3. Hybrid work models. Only 40% of workers in large metro areas have returned to the office since the beginning of the pandemic, the report says. Nearly 80% of workers say they want to work remotely at least one day per week, and economists estimate that 50% of the workforce could continue working in a hybrid format in the future. The long-term consequences of this shift could dramatically alter real estate, McCarthy said. Workers could leave urban hubs, where offices are plentiful, which would spark a rise in office vacancies and a decrease in surrounding retail. Also, cities could lose a crucial part of their tax base as more workers move to the suburbs or exurbs.
  4. Supply chain disruption. Bottlenecks in the supply chain have created delays in new-home construction, renovation projects and home repairs. That’s also caused costs to rise. “While the general consensus is this is improving, we still have so much uncertainty right now, especially as we still need more workers,” McCarthy said.
  5. Energy. Increasing demand for alternative energy is changing practices and expectations for healthy buildings and operations. Sustainability initiatives are addressing energy consumption, demand management, renewable energy, clean energy and carbon reduction. Commercial buildings are faced with the costs of retrofitting existing buildings with green energy or building new to adopt such measures.
  6. Labor shortages. McCarthy pointed to data that shows a mismatch between the number of job openings and available workers willing to fill them. The pandemic may have accelerated trends like the “great resignation” and low birth rates, he added. The labor shortages are causing a dip in productivity—compounding supply chain issues—and demand for office space.
  7. Housing imbalance. Studies estimate that more than 4 million new rental units nationwide will be needed by 2035, McCarthy said. The ratio of housing to workers is greatly unbalanced, with 3.9 jobs for every one house, he added. “Homeownership can be the backbone of communities, economies and societies,” McCarthy said about the dire need to address shortages.
  8. Regulatory uncertainty. Ever-changing regulations can add time, risk and cost to completing development projects and impose “new and often burdensome operating restrictions on existing properties,” the CRE report says. The regulatory uncertainty is occurring at all levels of government, particularly when it comes to land use and zoning, rentals, sustainable development and renovation requirements. “The emerging conflict between state preemptive legislation and local control over land use—and the litigation from these conflicts—will create regulatory uncertainty for some time to come,” the report says.
  9. Cybersecurity. The number of both domestic and foreign cyberthreats, including ransomware and data breaches, is rising. As buildings add smart-home technology, risks are increasing even more, the report says. “We will need to retrofit buildings to take into account the threat of hacks and data breaches,” McCarthy said. The CRE report warns that “we are entering the perfect storm from the confluence of decades of tech buildup, lack of skill sets, cultural ignorance, savvy bad actors and a dependency on commercial real estate as critical infrastructure.”
  10. ESG requirements. Environmental, social and governance issues are playing a bigger role in the innovation of the design, development and construction of new buildings as well as retrofitting existing stock. Though environmental aspects get the most attention, ESG issues as a whole are having a greater impact on real estate, McCarthy said. “Increased recognition of the importance of social factors like diversity, as well as health and wellness, in commercial real estate are setting new expectations from investors, employees and the communities where real estate operates,” the report finds.
10 Headwinds the Real Estate Market Faces Next Year (2024)

FAQs

What is the biggest challenge in real estate? ›

Dealing with unrealistic sellers

Many sellers compare their houses to those in the neighborhood and want to sell them as quickly as others. It's your responsibility to make them understand the real scenario. This is one of the most common problems that real estate markets face.

What is the outlook for real estate investors? ›

Following a 2.5% drop in the second half of 2022, the organization predicts a further 4.2% decline in 2023 and a 2.3% decline in 2024. However, this correction is considered mild, as national home prices are still projected to be up 29% by the end of 2024 compared to March 2020 levels.

What are the barriers to real estate development? ›

Answer and Explanation: Some of the barriers to entry for real estate development are capital or investment, regulations, and experience. Developing land for real estate, regardless of use, requires a large amount of capital to see it through from inception, construction, and sale.

What is the real estate forecast for 2023 in India? ›

According to a report, India's real estate market is expected to exhibit a growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% during 2023-2028. Therefore, FY'23-24 will see a strong foundation as there will be more buyers, and home loan rates will be lower.

Is there a risk in real estate in 2023? ›

Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2023 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.

What is the number one killer of deals in the real estate industry? ›

Experienced real estate professionals know there are hundreds of ways a deal can fall apart, from credit and financing problems to appraisals to just plain cold feet. But certainly, one of the more common deal killers is the home inspection.

Is real estate a good investment in 2023? ›

In my opinion, real estate is one intelligent option to consider in 2023, as it often has excellent returns, tax advantages and provides diversification even in the face of a challenging economic climate. Real estate also has the potential to compound your investment.

Will house prices go down in 2023 usa? ›

Although home prices are expected to improve in the second half of the year, the California median home price is projected to decrease by 5.6 percent to $776,600 in 2023, down from the median price of $822,300 recorded in 2022.

Will 2023 be a good time to buy a house? ›

Homebuyer.com data analysis indicates that, for first-time home buyers, June 2023 is a good time to buy a house relative to later in the year. This article provides an unbiased look at current mortgage rates, housing market conditions, and market sentiment.

What are 4 of the major real estate risk concerns? ›

What Are the Major Risks in Real Estate Investing?
  • Major Risks in Real Estate. Identifying risk is a critical skill when investing. ...
  • Capital Risk. Capital risk is the loss of capital. ...
  • Debt. Debt financing is often used in real estate investing. ...
  • Liability. ...
  • Liquidity Risk. ...
  • Market Risk. ...
  • Over Leverage.
Jul 15, 2022

What are 4 risks that may impact a real estate agency? ›

Which strategies should I consider in my real estate risk management plan?
  • An injury during a showing.
  • Breach of contract.
  • Ethics violations.
  • Accidents while driving for work.
  • Data breaches.
  • Housing market volatility.
  • Employee injuries.
  • Damaged or stolen business equipment.
Nov 15, 2022

What three things affect real estate market industry? ›

  • Demographics.
  • Interest Rates.
  • The Economy.
  • Government Policies/Subsidies.
  • What's the Best Investment?
  • The Bottom Line.

Is 2023 a good year to buy a house in India? ›

Consequently, 2023 is anticipated to be a period of robust growth for the real estate market. In line with this, NRIs and millennials planning to invest in residential property will drive the 2023 real estate market as a result of homes becoming more affordable and fractional ownership becoming more commonplace.

Is 2023 a good time to buy a house in India? ›

Will property prices fall in 2023? Prices are predicted to increase by over 7.0% nationwide (4-5% in Mumbai and Delhi, 5.5-6.5% in Chennai and Bengaluru), and a number of other economic indicators point to a strong upturn as well.

Is Indian real estate market in a bubble? ›

Is India in a housing bubble? No, the prices in the Indian real estate market have taken sufficient time to rise. Despite the rise in price in recent years, it cannot be termed a real estate bubble.

Will the real estate bubble burst in 2023? ›

According to recent data from CoreLogic, the answer may be no, at least for the time being. While there are signs of a slowdown in the housing market's year-over-year growth rate, the overall data and forecasts suggest that a crash is unlikely in 2023.

Why buying real estate in 2023 is a good idea? ›

Despite what some may think, 2023 is still a good year to invest in real estate, thanks to advantages like long-term appreciation, steady rental income, and the opportunity to hedge against inflation. Mortgage rates are expected to decline, but the housing market is likely to remain competitive due to low supply.

Is 2023 a good year to flip houses? ›

Flipping houses has been extremely profitable for the past decade, but 2023 should see the market tightening up quite a bit. With demand sagging, rehab costs going up, and days on market doubling or even tripling, house-flippers have a little tougher path to profitability than before.

What are the 3 L's of a millionaire real estate agent? ›

Those three priorities are The Three Ls—Leads, Listings, Leverage. The philosophy comes from the book “Millionaire Real Estate Agent” by Gary Keller, Dave Jenks, and Jay Papasan.

Who makes the most money in a real estate deal? ›

Real Estate Broker

A real estate broker is permitted under law to negotiate and organize real estate dealings. A career as a real estate broker is one of the highest paying and lucrative professions in the real estate industry.

Which is generally the riskiest real estate strategy? ›

Opportunistic is the riskiest of all real estate investment strategies. It is also synonymous with 'growth' in the stock market, like 'value-add,' but it is even riskier. Opportunistic investors take on the most complicated projects and may not see a return on their investment for three or more years.

How to make money in real estate in 2023? ›

  1. House Flipping. Fix and flips are one of the most popular methods of making money in the real estate market. ...
  2. Rental Properties. Another way to invest in real estate is to buy property directly. ...
  3. House Hacking. ...
  4. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) ...
  5. Online Real Estate Crowdfunding Platforms.
Jan 11, 2023

Is it better to invest in real estate or the stock market? ›

If you're looking for a long-term investment, real estate may be the better option. There are no guarantees, but real estate tends to appreciate in value over time. If you're looking for a more passive investment, stocks may be the way to go.

Is real estate a good investment during inflation? ›

Economic factors, such as inflation, have a direct impact on the real estate market. As with other goods and services, real estate prices may rise alongside inflation. This is due to the fact that real estate is commonly considered a safe and stable investment that can be used to combat the effects of inflation.

Is 2024 a good time to buy a house? ›

With mortgage rates declining faster than expected, home prices are likely to remain mostly flat throughout 2024. This will be good news for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for a good time to enter the market.

Will mortgage rates drop in 2024? ›

Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors expect mortgage rates to drop through the first quarter of 2024, by half a percentage point to about nine-tenths of a percentage point. Figures are the predicted quarterly average rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

What is the best date to close on a house? ›

If you need to be occupying your home by a certain date to save on rent, it's a much better deal to close at the end of the previous month (for example, January 30) instead of the beginning of the current month (February 1).

How high will interest rates go in 2023? ›

Since the start of 2022, the Fed has hiked rates 10 times to combat rising inflation. As of May 2023, the federal funds rate ranges from 5.00% to 5.25%. If this prediction is correct, it won't be surprising to see some of the best high-yield savings accounts offering rates exceeding 4%.

How much did house prices drop in the recession 2008? ›

The median price for a U.S. home sold during the fourth quarter of 2008 fell to $180,100, down from $205,700 during the last quarter of 2007. Prices fell by a record 9.5% in 2008, to $197,100, compared to $217,900 in 2007. In comparison, median home prices dipped a mere 1.6% between 2006 and 2007.

Should I buy a car now or wait until 2023? ›

Americans planning to shop for a new car in 2023 might find slightly better prices than during the past two years, though auto industry analysts say it is likely better to wait until the fall. Since mid-2021, car buyers have been frustrated by rising prices, skimpy selection and long waits for deliveries.

Why not to invest in real estate? ›

Real estate investing can be lucrative, but it's important to understand the risks. Key risks include bad locations, negative cash flows, high vacancies, and problem tenants. Other risks to consider are the lack of liquidity, hidden structural problems, and the unpredictable nature of the real estate market.

Is this a bad time to invest in real estate? ›

As a result of the Federal Reserve's quick interest rate rises, housing prices are shifting down from their 2020-2021 peaks. Investors in rental properties continue to enjoy historically low and reasonable interest rates. Real estate is a long-term investment with a favorable long-term prognosis for current investors.

Is real estate riskier than stocks? ›

While stocks are a well-known investment option, not everyone knows that buying real estate is also considered an investment. Under the right circ*mstances, real estate can be an alternative to stocks, offering lower risk, yielding better returns, and providing greater diversification.

What are the five negatives of real estate investment? ›

Disadvantages of Real Estate Investing
  • Real Estate Investing is a Long Grind. ...
  • Real Estate Income Can Be Variable. ...
  • Real Estate Requires Maintenance. ...
  • Real Estate is Impacted by Rent Control. ...
  • Real Estate Requires Your Time. ...
  • Real Estate Transaction Costs are High. ...
  • Real Estate Income is Subject to Taxation.
Jun 4, 2023

What are the two basic types of risk in real estate? ›

6 Types Of Real Estate Investment Risks That Investors Need To Know
  • 6 Types Of Risks In Real Estate Investment. 1.1. Structural Risk: 1.2. General Market Risk: 1.3. Financial Risk: 1.4. Asset-Level Risk: 1.5. Legislative Risk: 1.6. Location Risk:
  • Tackle Real Estate Investment Risks With BFPM.
Sep 27, 2022

What are the 3 most important factors in real estate? ›

The three most important factors when buying a home are location, location, and location. Too often I hear people talking about making decisions based on the home itself, instead of the location, and that is a mistake.

What are the 4 forces affecting value of real estate? ›

There are four forces that influence real property values.
  • •Social Forces.
  • •Economic Forces.
  • •Physical and Environmental.
  • •Governmental Forces.

What are the 3 areas of focus with real estate? ›

The main segments of the real estate sector are residential real estate, commercial real estate, and industrial real estate.

Which direction is wealth in 2023? ›

In 2023, the Eight White Star will fly to the due south, which is the lucky direction and position in obtaining wealth from full-time sources according to the Feng Shui (Chinese geomancy), and it is also the most prosperous direction this year.

What is the lucky house color for 2023? ›

The lucky color for 2023 is based on the element that rules the sign of the year -it's a color that promises to bring luck, prosperity, and health and can be used to bring those feelings into your interior design project. Forest green is the lucky color for 2023, a color that can represent both – earth and water.

Will 2023 will be good year? ›

2023 is going to be a fantastic year for you. A promotion or a salary increase may come your way. You can anticipate skyrocketing success and material abundance in the last quarter. Consistent, small-but-steady efforts over time are what it takes to accomplish anything.

Has home buying slowed down? ›

After a record-breaking run that saw mortgage rates plunge to all-time lows and home prices soar to new highs, the U.S. housing market is finally slowing. Home sales had declined for 12 consecutive months through January 2023, and home values seem to have peaked.

Will rising interest rates slow the housing market? ›

The U.S. housing market continues to face challenges due to today's higher interest rate environment. Affordability hurdles owed to a combination of higher home prices and elevated mortgage rates have slowed the housing market.

How does rising interest rates affect real estate prices? ›

This increase in the federal funds rate can cause mortgage rates to rise — and rising mortgage rates can decrease home buying demand, leading to a fall in home prices.

Is it good to invest in India or USA real estate? ›

Whether in the US or India, residential properties are considered safe investment options. But the real estate regulations and practices are more transparent, favourable and well settled in the US. They include ease of purchasing, relatively lower tax rates, availability of higher loan amounts, and easy exit options.

What will Indian real estate be in 2030? ›

The size of the country's real estate industry is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030 from $200 billion in 2021, according to a joint report prepared by NAREDCO and EY.

What is the forecast for the Indian real estate market in 2025? ›

According to the reports, by 2025, Indian real estate is expected to increase by 15-18 million per square foot for data centres.

What is so hard about real estate? ›

Earning a living selling real estate is hard work. You have to be organized in order to keep track of legal documents, meetings, and all the tasks that go into multiple listings. You may go without a paycheck for periods of time because the work is often commission-based. If you don't sell, you don't earn anything.

What is one major problem with investing in real estate? ›

Potential for Negative Cash Flow Risk: Like many other investments, real estate has the potential to create losses. Whenever you complete a deal with less money than you started with, you've created negative cash flow. And too much negative cash flow can leave you broke.

What is one of the most challenging aspects to being a real estate landlord? ›

Challenges that come with owning a rental property include finding a suitable property, preparing the unit, finding good tenants, maintenance issues, hassles that arise, and changing interest rates impacting the rental price.

Why is real estate stressful? ›

High pressure environment

As a real estate agent, you're under a lot of pressure to get your clients the best deal. There is no room for error; if you don't close the sale and get them their dream home, it's going to be on your shoulders.

Why is the first year of real estate the hardest? ›

Many agents fail because they can't make enough money in that first year of real estate to pay their bills. They're forced to take on part-time jobs with a steady paycheck.

What are the biggest disadvantages are to owning real estate? ›

Real estate investing can be lucrative, but it's important to understand the risks. Key risks include bad locations, negative cash flows, high vacancies, and problem tenants. Other risks to consider are the lack of liquidity, hidden structural problems, and the unpredictable nature of the real estate market.

What are the challenges in the real estate market today? ›

In conclusion, purchasing a home in California's high-priced real estate market comes with several unique challenges, including high home prices, lack of inventory, intense competition, stringent lending criteria, closing costs, and property taxes.

What are the top 5 mistakes investors make? ›

Mallouk defines the five most common investment missteps—market timing, active trading, misunderstanding performance and financial information, letting yourself get in the way, and working with the wrong investment advisor—and includes detailed information on how to dodge the most common investing pitfalls.

What are three common mistakes of investing? ›

Chasing performance, fear of missing out, and focusing on the negatives are three common mistakes many investors may make. History shows investors who overreact to near-term market events typically end up doing worse than if they stuck to their long-term plan.

What are 3 drawbacks to owning rental real estate? ›

The drawbacks of having rental properties include a lack of liquidity, the cost of upkeep, and the potential for difficult tenants and for the neighborhood's appeal to decline.

What is the most challenging part of property management? ›

The most common challenge faced by property managers is poor time management. Handling maintenance requests, communicating with tenants, and conducting inspections can fill up a property manager's day leaving no time for the twenty other things that need to get done.

What is the biggest challenge facing the commercial real estate industry? ›

Pressure in the office sector and tighter lending standards are challenging US commercial real estate, contributing to the weaker economic growth outlook and financial sector vulnerability.

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