What would happen if the U.S. stopped trading with China? (2024)

What would happen if the US and China stopped trading?

Cutting China off from the U.S. would cost America hundreds of billions of dollars, report says. Expanding U.S. tariffs of 25% to all trade with China could cost the U.S. $190 billion a year in GDP, according to a report released Wednesday by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Rhodium Group.

Accordingly, ceasing the production of all China-made goods would lead to an overwhelming drop in all sorts of raw material. This will cause a commodities market crash which will in turn crash all financial markets and thus cause a worldwide financial crisis that will be almost impossible to recover from.

What Happens If China Stopped Exporting? By cutting back on China-made products, raw materials could be greatly reduced. The result of that event will be a commodities market crash, which may crash all financial markets that will plunge the world into a global financial crisis almost impossible to recover from.

It supports US jobs.

While expanding foreign trade can disrupt US employment, trade with China also creates and supports a significant number of American jobs. Exports to China support nearly 900,000 US jobs, and Chinese companies invested in the United States employ over 160,000 workers.

Today, the United States imports more from China than from any other country, and China is one of the largest export markets for U.S. goods and services. This trade has helped the United States in the form of lower prices for consumers and higher profits for corporations, but it has also come with costs.

First, total US debt is roughly $30 trillion. If China sold all its debt, it is only 3.6% of all outstanding US debt. A shock to the system maybe, on the day it happens, but just a temporary shock, not a death blow. Second, consider what's happened to our budget deficit the last couple of years.

U.S. goods imports from China totaled $434.7 billion in 2020, down 3.6 percent ($16.0 billion) from 2019, but up 19 percent from 2010. U.S. imports from are up 325 percent from 2001 (pre-WTO accession). U.S. imports from China account for 18.6 percent of overall U.S. imports in 2020.

China has steadily accumulated U.S. Treasury securities over the last few decades. As of October 2021, the Asian nation owns $1.065 trillion, or about 3.68%, of the $28.9 trillion U.S. national debt, which is more than any other foreign country except Japan.

Examples of the benefits to the US economy from trade with China include: China purchased $165 billion in goods and services from the United States in 2015, representing 7.3 percent of all US exports and about 1 percent of total US economic output.

BEIJING -- The U.S. is unlikely to survive without its Chinese trading partner, the world's No. 2 economy, China's top commerce official said on Saturday. "American and Western friends always think China cannot survive without the U.S.," said Commerce Minister Zhong Shan.

Is China important to the world?

China is playing a growing role in the world economy. It is one of the world's fastest growing countries and is the tenth largest exporter. China is also a significant recipient of foreign aid and a major borrower on international capital markets.

Aircraft, soybeans, motor vehicles and microchips are top U.S. exports to China. Since 2001, the share of these exports going to China has increased sharply. Soybeans and motor vehicles are targets of recent Chinese tariffs. Production of these two exports is geographically concentrated.

Machinery & Electrical: 24% of U.S. imports from China. Miscellaneous: 19% Metals: 10% Textiles: 8%

Among those who benefited most was US neighbor Mexico: Between 2017 and 2019, the country exported an estimated $4.7 billion more to the US as a result of the trade dispute. The added billions are especially significant for countries with lower GDPs, like Vietnam, Malaysia or Taiwan.

China produces many consumer goods at lower costs than other countries can. Buyers, including those in the United States, are drawn to low prices. Most economists agree that China's competitive pricing is a result of two factors: A lower standard of living, which allows companies in China to pay lower wages to workers.

How much money does the U.S. owe to China? China owns roughly $1.08 trillion worth of U.S. debt. 2 This amount is subject to market fluctuations. The value will change whenever China trades Treasury securities or when the prices of those bonds change.

"China would overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy in nominal US dollar terms by about 2030," the report's authors conclude. "But it would never establish a meaningful lead ... and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person than America, even by mid-century."

What is the cause of trade war between U.S. and China?

What began as a trade war over China's unfair economic policies has now evolved into a so-called cold war propelled by differing ideologies. U.S.-China bilateral relations took a nosedive in 2018 when then U.S. president Donald Trump's obsession with trade deficits led him to impose punitive tariffs on China.

China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than the United States.

Foreign governments who have purchased U.S. treasuries include China, Japan, Brazil, Ireland, the U.K. and others. China represents 29 percent of all treasuries issued to other countries, which corresponds to $1.18 trillion.