During what month and year did the first recorded peak of a business cycle occur in the US?
The NBER determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in August 1929, and that a trough occurred in March 1933.
The most vigorous, sustained periods of growth, on the other hand, took place from early 1961 to mid-1969, with an expansion of 53% (5.1% a year), from mid-1991 to late in 2000, at 43% (3.8% a year), and from late 1982 to mid-1990, at 37% (4% a year).
The recovery phase is said to be the period between the previous trough and the time when the economy achieves its previous peak level of real GDP. The “expansion” phase is from that point until the following peak. A complete business cycle is defined by the passage from one peak to the next.
This period started from the end of the Napoleonic wars in 1815, which was immediately followed by the Post-Napoleonic depression in the United Kingdom (1815–30), and culminated in the Great Depression of 1929–39, which led into World War II.
What Is a Peak? A peak is the highest point between the end of an economic expansion and the start of a contraction in a business cycle. The peak of the cycle refers to the last month before several key economic indicators, such as employment and new housing starts, begin to fall.
The main reasons for America's economic boom in the 1920s were technological progress which led to the mass production of goods, the electrification of America, new mass marketing techniques, the availability of cheap credit and increased employment which, in turn, created a huge amount of consumers.
| Dates | Duration (months) | Annual GDP Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 1982– July 1990 | 92 | +4.3% |
| Mar 1991– Mar 2001 | 120 | +3.6% |
| Nov 2001– Dec 2007 | 73 | +2.8% |
| June 2009– Feb 2020 | 128 | +2.3% |
Terms in this set (28) The period of declining growth in the real GDP of a country between the peak of a business cycle and the trough is called a(n): Recessionary phase.
The four stages of the cycle are expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. Factors such as GDP, interest rates, total employment, and consumer spending, can help determine the current stage of the economic cycle. Insight into economic cycles can be very useful for businesses and investors.
Throughout its life, a business cycle goes through four identifiable phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough.
What business cycle is the United States in?
The COVID-19 pandemic created a recession in February 2020. For 11 years after June 2009, the American economy was in an expansion phase.
Third Quarter 2022
The U.S. is in the late-cycle expansion phase with moderate recession risk, while Europe faces rising near-term recession risks.
Business cycles as we know them today were first identified and analyzed by Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell in their 1946 book, Measuring Business Cycles. One of their key insights was that many economic indicators move together.
The period of U.S. history between 1921 and 1929, known as the Era of Prosperity, was dominated by the Republicans in the national government. The three Republican presidents who served during that time were: Warren G. Harding (1921–1923), Calvin Coolidge (1923–1929), and Herbert C. Hoover (1929–1933).
The U.S. economy grew rapidly after the Civil War, fueled by an astounding rise in wealth, wages, production, and corporate mergers, along with limited government regulation. The volume of stocks traded rose sharply with corporations' need for investment capital and the development of new technologies.
By 1850, the US population had reached 23,191,876; in 1851, the population of England and Wales was 17,927,609, plus 2,888,700 for Scotland (a total of about 20.8 million), plus 5.11 million for Ireland - significant drop because of the Famine.
The Great Depression was the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialized world, lasting from 1929 to 1939. It began after the stock market crash of October 1929, which sent Wall Street into a panic and wiped out millions of investors.
