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Thu, 06 Aug 2015 07:01:51 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
- Share of long trades is unchanged at 56%
- Main resistance is located around 1,105
- Key demand can be found at 1,071
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: German Factory Orders (Jun), US Unemployment Claims (Jul 31), French and Spanish 10-y Bond Auctions, UK Manufacturing Production (Jun), Bank of England's Interest Rate Decision, Meeting Minutes and Quarterly Inflation Report
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Gold struggled to rebound from the lowest level since 2010 on Thursday after data showed business activity in the US services sector rose almost to a decade-high, pointing to a robust economic momentum and strengthening the case for a rate hike by the Fed as early as next month. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI surged to 60.3 last month, up from 56.0 in June, while non-manufacturing business activity index climbed to 64.9, compared with 61.05 a month earlier. Meanwhile, the drop in holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, continued on Wednesday, to 21.47 million ounces, the lowest level since September 2008.
Meanwhile, US private employers hired fewer workers in July than expected, reducing expectations of a robust jobs data in the government's payrolls report due Friday. American companies took on 185,000 workers in the reported month, which was the smallest increase since April and compared with economists' forecast for a 215,000 gain. Meanwhile, private payroll data in June was revised down to 229,000 from an originally reported 237,000 increase, which was the biggest surge since December. The ADP figures are typically released ahead of the US Labor Department's more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report, which includes both public and private-sector employment. Economists expect total US employment to have increased by 223,000 jobs in July.
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Upcoming fundamentals: Super Thursday in Britain
A lot of experts and analysts are calling today a "Super Thursday", due to a slew of data from the Bank of England. For the first time ever the central bank of any country will not only announce monetary policy decisions, but will also publish the minutes of the meeting at the same time. In addition to that, the BoE is also releasing its Quarterly Inflation Report today. The data is due at 11:00 GMT today, while markets are forecasted to remain increasingly turbulent until the press-conference of Mark Carney at 11:45.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD silent for second consecutive day
It seems that gold is preparing for a US jobs' report due on Friday, thus showing no intentions to hurry with uplifted volatility. Yesterday the bullion stayed broadly quiet for a second day in a row and traded around the 1,085 mark. Closest resistance and support are placed at 1,092 and 1,080, respectively. Despite that, both bulls and bears and now setting eyes on other technical levels, which tend to have greater importance in the mid-term. The former are aiming at 1,105 (recent highs) and the latter are targeting the five-year low of 1,071.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
In the one-hour chart the bullion's horizontal development is more visible at the moment. The future scenario is biased in favour of bears, as they may receive some extra momentum from the 200-hour SMA at 1,091 and local highs just above the 1,100 mark.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
Sentiment flat at SWFX market
Sentiment with respect to the precious metal was completely unchanged in the past 24 hours. The portion of long open positions is 56%, as it remains at the lowest level in two months.In the meantime, OANDA share of bulls stays at 67.45% of all current positions, while SAXO Bank traders are also firmly optimistic towards gold at the moment, as there are 67% of bullish trades opened by Wednesday morning.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast for the end of November is 1,150
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between Jul 5 and Aug 5 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,150 by the end of November. Though 43% of participants believe the price will be above this mark in ninety days. Alongside, 40% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,150 and 1,100 by the end of November of this year.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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