World natural resources may run out by 2040 - study (2024)

A study predicted that if the world's economy and population continue to grow at their current pace, natural resources will run out within 20 years.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
Updated: APRIL 2, 2023 10:31
World natural resources may run out by 2040 - study (1)

A recent study based on computational models claims that within the next decade, global human welfare will begin to decline.

The study was written by Gaya Herrington, a sustainability and dynamic system analysis researcher at the consulting firm KPMG, and published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology.

According to the study, simple supply and demand raises the following problem: If the world's economy and population continues at its current growth rate, the world's natural resources will eventually run out. Then, the economy and population will begin to shrink in order to match its supply.

A groundbreaking MIT study in 1972 titled "Limits to Growth" (LtG) was the first to try to solve the problem based on empirical data and computational analysis.

The 1972 study created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production based on used data from many fields, including population, fertility rates, pollution levels, food production, and industrial output.

The study then presented 12 possible scenarios for the future, based on different forecasts of human behavior. In most of the scenarios, incessant economic growth eventually overshoots the world's natural resources, rendering further economic growth impossible. Personal welfare would then begin to decline as a result.

"Business as Usual" (BaU) was one of the most famous of the 1972 scenarios. BaU predicted that global economic growth would continue as it had done before. When BaU was feeded into the computational models, the outcome was that around the 2040s the world's economy will begin to lose ground, and the world's population, food availability, and other resources would drop as a result.

The 2020 study looked at today's data and compared it to the 1972 predictions. The computer analysis showed that two of the 1972 predictions were very close to the current state of the global economy.

One of them was BaU.

According to the study: "The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity's goal in the twenty-first century."

BaU does not necessary end in a total collapse of human society. the researchers explained in the study. But, it will still create a sharp economic downturn that could destabilize the world as we know it.

However, according to the study, there is still another model within reach, if human behavior changes drastically.

While this scenario is least aligned with the 2020 data, humans may decide to deliberately limit their own economic output before the dearth of natural resources forces them to. This includes, among others, having smaller families and limiting industrial pollution and consumption of natural resources.

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World natural resources may run out by 2040 - study (2024)

FAQs

What natural resources is the world running out of? ›

What resources are in decline? Water – Even though you see water everywhere and our planet is 70% water, only 2.5% of that 70% is fresh water. The rest is salt water and not useful to humans at all. That small percentage of fresh water is mostly in the form of ice or permanent snow cover.

How long until we run out of natural resources? ›

So, if we continue at our current rate, it is estimated that all of our fossil fuels will be depleted by 2060. If we keep on mining the earth in such a damaging way, we might find new reserves that will push that date back.

What would happen if all the natural resources run out? ›

The environment is incapable of replenishing the resources if we use them too quickly. Once these resources are gone, humans around the world will suffer due to a lack of access to essential resources like water, food, materials for housing, and materials for heating.

What will happen to natural resources in 2050? ›

The global population, which is set to grow by 28 per cent, is predicted to use 71 per cent more resources per capita by 2050. Without urgent steps to increase efficiency, the global use of metals, biomass, minerals – such as sand – and other materials will increase from 85 to 186 billion tonnes per year by 2050.

What minerals are we running out of? ›

Six other resources are likely to be exhausted between 100 and 200 years: antimony, gold, boron, silver, bismuth, and molybdenum, while nine resources have an exhaustion period of between 200 and 1000 years: indium, chromium, zinc, nickel, tungsten, tin, rhenium, selenium, and cadmium.

What will happen to Earth in 2030? ›

But by the 2030s, as temperatures rise, climate hazards are expected to increase all over the globe as different countries face more crippling heat waves, worsening coastal flooding and crop failures, the report says.

How many years of oil is left in the world? ›

World Oil Reserves

The world has proven reserves equivalent to 46.6 times its annual consumption levels. This means it has about 47 years of oil left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).

How many years until we run out of natural gas? ›

Assuming the same annual rate of U.S. dry natural gas production in 2021 of about 34.52 Tcf, the United States has enough dry natural gas to last about 86 years.

Will we ever run out of water? ›

Water is the world's most vital resource. The world knows how to access it and deliver it to the people who need it. We won't run out of water, but this vitally important resource demands vitally important efforts to establish access to it for generations to come.

Could we survive without natural resources? ›

We cannot live without the clean air we breathe, the plants we eat, or the water we drink. We need natural resources to put roofs over our heads and heat our homes. We need them to survive and to thrive.

What will happen if our natural resources are exhausted? ›

If the natural resources were all exhausted, it would be impossible for living beings to survive. Fossil fuels are vital natural resources that are required for human life. They are utilized for the production of electricity which is used to run factories and other essential activities.

How long will it take for natural resources to run out? ›

Conclusion: how long will fossil fuels last? It is predicted that we will run out of fossil fuels in this century. Oil can last up to 50 years, natural gas up to 53 years, and coal up to 114 years. Yet, renewable energy is not popular enough, so emptying our reserves can speed up.

What are the risks of natural resources? ›

Risks to natural resources like e.g. water, soil or biodiversity are increasing. Natural resources are too often overexploited, poorly managed or polluted. Wetland encroachment, soil erosion, unequal water allocation and pollution are just some of the risks natural resources face.

What will happen to Earth in 2050? ›

There will be a significant rise in social and financial stratification. Large cities will grow and population density will increase. The most technologically and economically advanced countries will engage in a new space race and new crewed missions to the Moon. Technologies will progress stepwise.

What is the most scarce resource in the world? ›

Looking farther into the future, other sources claim that things like aluminum might run dry in about 80 years. Other studies indicate that rhodium, followed by gold, platinum and tellurium, are some of the rarest elements in terms of their percentage in the planet's crust and their importance to society.

What are the natural resources shortage? ›

At the current rate of consumption, oil will run out in about 30 years' time, tin, cadmium, lead and zinc in 40 years, copper, antimony and nickel in about 70 years. Most current utilization of aquatic animals, of the wild plants and animals of the land, of forests and of grazing lands is not sustainable.

What are three natural resources that we overuse? ›

In includes our consumption of:
  • Fossil fuels (and the release of CO2 into the atmosphere)
  • Fish and seafood.
  • Forest products.
  • Meat.
  • Cereals.
  • Build-up land (buildings, asphalt, concrete)

What is the most natural resource on earth? ›

Water is the most abundant natural resource on the planet, the source of countless ecosystem services, and critical to industrial, agricultural, household, and recreational activities.

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