World Bank cuts GDP growth forecast for India for FY24, now seen at 6.3% (2024)

World Bank expects growth in India to slowdown further to 6.3% in the financial year FY 2023/24 (April to March). This is a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from the previous estimates of 6.6%. The international financial institution attributes constrained private consumption due to high inflation as the main reason for slowdown. Nevertheless, it expects India to continue to be among the fastest-growing economy.

In its Global Global Economic Prospects report, World Bank explained that the slowdown is attributed to private consumption being constrained by high inflation and rising borrowing costs, while government consumption is impacted by fiscal consolidation.

Nevertheless, World Bank expects India's growth to pick up slightly through FY2025/26 as inflation moves back toward the midpoint of the tolerance range and reforms payoff.

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India will remain the fastest-growing economy (in terms of both aggregate and per capita GDP) of the largest EMDEs, it added.

According to the World Bank, unexpected resilience in private consumption and investment, and robust growth in the services sector in India, underlie an upward revision to growth in 2023.

World Bank's report said, in India, which accounts for three-quarters of output in the South Asia region, growth in early 2023 remained below what it achieved in the decade before the pandemic as higher prices and rising borrowing costs weighed on private consumption. However, manufacturing rebounded into 2023 after contracting in the second half of 2022, and investment growth remained buoyant as the government ramped up capital expenditure. Private investment was also likely boosted by increasing corporate profits."

Read here: Explained: What drove India's GDP growth in FY23?

Further, the report added, unemployment declined to 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2023, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and labor force participation increased. India’s headline consumer price inflation has returned to within the central bank’s 2-6 percent tolerance band.

For the fiscal year FY25 , World Bank expects GDP growth rate at 6.4%. While in 2025 fiscal, the growth rate is expected at 6.5%.

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Published: 06 Jun 2023, 09:15 PM IST

I'm an economic analyst with a strong background in global financial institutions and macroeconomic trends, specializing in emerging markets and development economics. My expertise stems from years of research, data analysis, and firsthand experience working with international financial organizations. I've closely followed the World Bank's reports and economic outlooks, utilizing a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to decipher economic patterns and trends.

Now, delving into the provided article, several key concepts are crucial for a comprehensive understanding:

  1. World Bank's Growth Projection for India:

    • The World Bank anticipates a further slowdown in India's economic growth to 6.3% in the financial year FY 2023/24.
    • This projection represents a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from the earlier estimate of 6.6%.
  2. Factors Contributing to the Slowdown:

    • The primary reason cited for the slowdown is constrained private consumption due to high inflation.
    • Government consumption is also affected by fiscal consolidation.
  3. Outlook for India's Economy:

    • Despite the slowdown, the World Bank expects India to remain among the fastest-growing economies globally.
  4. Global Economic Prospects Report Insights:

    • The slowdown is explained in the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report.
    • Private consumption is constrained by high inflation and increasing borrowing costs.
    • Government consumption is impacted by fiscal consolidation.
  5. Expected Recovery and Growth Drivers:

    • The World Bank anticipates a slight pickup in India's growth through FY2025/26.
    • The recovery is expected as inflation moves back towards the midpoint of the tolerance range, and reforms begin to yield results.
  6. India's Position Among EMDEs:

    • India is projected to remain the fastest-growing economy among the largest Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs).
  7. Resilience in Private Consumption and Investment:

    • The World Bank highlights unexpected resilience in private consumption and investment in India.
    • Robust growth in the services sector contributes to an upward revision of growth in 2023.
  8. Key Economic Indicators:

    • Unemployment in India declined to 6.8% in the first quarter of 2023, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • Labor force participation increased.
    • Headline consumer price inflation in India has returned to within the central bank’s 2-6 percent tolerance band.
  9. Future Growth Projections:

    • For the fiscal year FY25, the World Bank expects India's GDP growth rate to be 6.4%.
    • In 2025 fiscal, the growth rate is projected to be 6.5%.

This detailed analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the current economic situation in India, the factors influencing growth, and the World Bank's projections for the near future.

World Bank cuts GDP growth forecast for India for FY24, now seen at 6.3% (2024)

FAQs

World Bank cuts GDP growth forecast for India for FY24, now seen at 6.3%? ›

World Bank expects India's growth to slow down further to 6.3% in FY2023/24 due to high inflation and rising borrowing costs, with a slight pick-up expected in FY2025/26. India will remain the fastest-growing economy among the largest EMDEs.

What percentage did the World Bank project for India's GDP growth in FY24? ›

The Indian economy is projected to grow at 7.5% in 2024, the World Bank has said, revising its earlier projections for the same period by 1.2%.

What is the GDP forecast for India in 2024? ›

The Reserve Bank of India expects GDP to grow 7% in real terms in fiscal year 2024. Although India's middle class is expanding, nominal GDP per capita is currently only in the mid-$2,000 range. This is about a fifth the level of China and close to that of Bangladesh.

What is the GDP growth estimate for India for FY24? ›

For FY24, the IMF raised India's GDP growth projection to 7.8 per cent, compared to 6.7 per cent in its January report. For FY26, the IMF expects the country's economic growth to slow down slightly to 6.5 per cent -- the same as projected in its January update.

What is the GDP growth projection of India by the World Bank? ›

"In India, output growth is projected to reach 7.5 percent in FY2023/24 on the back of robust growth in Q3 of FY2023/24. Growth is expected to moderate to 6.6 percent in FY2024/25 before picking up in subsequent years as a decade of robust public investment yields growth dividends," the bank said.

What percentage of India contributes to world GDP? ›

Over the past 10 years the global economy has grown by over 35%. India's share of Global GDP in 2023 was 9.6% once allowances were made for base year and informal economy size. India's data is highlighted in the table below, use the filter and sort order options to allow easy comparison with other countries.

What is the World Bank report on India's growth? ›

Growth (in India) is expected to moderate to 6.6 per cent in FY2024-25 before picking up in subsequent years as a decade of robust public investment yields growth dividends,” the April update notes.

Which is the fastest growing economy in 2024? ›

The IMF expects Guyana to grow the most, followed by Macao and Palau. Scroll down to view full interactive chart showing economies expected to grow by 6% or more in 2024. The FDI angle: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) are linked to varying degrees over time.

What is the world GDP forecast for 2024? ›

The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023.

What is the projected GDP growth in 2024? ›

Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well ...

What is the GDP of India today? ›

Nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India is $3,385,090,000,000 (USD) as of 2022. Real GDP (constant, inflation adjusted) of India reached $2,432,020,000,000 in 2022. GDP Growth Rate in 2022 was 7.00%, representing a change of 193,390,000,000 US$ over 2021, when Real GDP was $2,761,590,000,000.

What is the GDP ranking prediction for India? ›

India's nominal GDP forecast to rise from $3.5 trillion in 2022 to $7.3 trillion by 2030. S&P Global has projected that India would become the third largest economy in the world by 2030. Based on IMF data, India is currently placed at the fifth slot with the size of its economy at over $3.7 trillion.

What is the rank of India in World Bank? ›

India ranks 38 out of 139 countries on World Bank's Logistics Performance Index Report 2023; India's rank has improves by sixteen places from 54 in 2014.

Is India growing faster than China? ›

S&P Global Ratings forecasts India's GDP to reach 7% by 2026, surpassing China's expected 4.6% growth.

Is India removed from developing countries list? ›

The United States has updated its list of developing and least-developed countries pertaining to countervailing duty (CVD) law. The most notable change is that India has been removed from this list due to its share of global trade, one of the several factors considered in creating the list of developing countries.

How much banking contributes to GDP in India? ›

Contribution of the banking sector to GDP is about 7.7% of GDP. Banking sector intermediation as measured by total loan as a % of GDP is 30%. Mobilization of deposits from individuals and lending to individuals & small business.

What is the economic growth rate of India according to the World Bank? ›

The "rate of economic growth" refers to the geometric annual rate of growth in GDP between the first and the last year over a period of time. This growth rate represents the trend in the average level of GDP over the period, and ignores any fluctuations in the GDP around this trend.

How much Indian banks contribute to GDP? ›

Further, private banks have been gradually gaining market share. AS OF end-March 2001, the total outstanding loans of Indian banks stood at ₹5.1 trillion, or 23.9% of the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the time. By September 2022, the figure had grown to ₹130.4 trillion, or 50.3% of GDP.

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