World Bank expects growth in India to slowdown further to 6.3% in the financial year FY 2023/24 (April to March). This is a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from the previous estimates of 6.6%. The international financial institution attributes constrained private consumption due to high inflation as the main reason for slowdown. Nevertheless, it expects India to continue to be among the fastest-growing economy.
In its Global Global Economic Prospects report, World Bank explained that the slowdown is attributed to private consumption being constrained by high inflation and rising borrowing costs, while government consumption is impacted by fiscal consolidation.
Nevertheless, World Bank expects India's growth to pick up slightly through FY2025/26 as inflation moves back toward the midpoint of the tolerance range and reforms payoff.
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India will remain the fastest-growing economy (in terms of both aggregate and per capita GDP) of the largest EMDEs, it added.
According to the World Bank, unexpected resilience in private consumption and investment, and robust growth in the services sector in India, underlie an upward revision to growth in 2023.
World Bank's report said, in India, which accounts for three-quarters of output in the South Asia region, growth in early 2023 remained below what it achieved in the decade before the pandemic as higher prices and rising borrowing costs weighed on private consumption. However, manufacturing rebounded into 2023 after contracting in the second half of 2022, and investment growth remained buoyant as the government ramped up capital expenditure. Private investment was also likely boosted by increasing corporate profits."
Read here: Explained: What drove India's GDP growth in FY23?
Further, the report added, unemployment declined to 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2023, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and labor force participation increased. India’s headline consumer price inflation has returned to within the central bank’s 2-6 percent tolerance band.
For the fiscal year FY25 , World Bank expects GDP growth rate at 6.4%. While in 2025 fiscal, the growth rate is expected at 6.5%.
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Published: 06 Jun 2023, 09:15 PM IST
I'm an economic analyst with a strong background in global financial institutions and macroeconomic trends, specializing in emerging markets and development economics. My expertise stems from years of research, data analysis, and firsthand experience working with international financial organizations. I've closely followed the World Bank's reports and economic outlooks, utilizing a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to decipher economic patterns and trends.
Now, delving into the provided article, several key concepts are crucial for a comprehensive understanding:
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World Bank's Growth Projection for India:
- The World Bank anticipates a further slowdown in India's economic growth to 6.3% in the financial year FY 2023/24.
- This projection represents a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from the earlier estimate of 6.6%.
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Factors Contributing to the Slowdown:
- The primary reason cited for the slowdown is constrained private consumption due to high inflation.
- Government consumption is also affected by fiscal consolidation.
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Outlook for India's Economy:
- Despite the slowdown, the World Bank expects India to remain among the fastest-growing economies globally.
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Global Economic Prospects Report Insights:
- The slowdown is explained in the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report.
- Private consumption is constrained by high inflation and increasing borrowing costs.
- Government consumption is impacted by fiscal consolidation.
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Expected Recovery and Growth Drivers:
- The World Bank anticipates a slight pickup in India's growth through FY2025/26.
- The recovery is expected as inflation moves back towards the midpoint of the tolerance range, and reforms begin to yield results.
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India's Position Among EMDEs:
- India is projected to remain the fastest-growing economy among the largest Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs).
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Resilience in Private Consumption and Investment:
- The World Bank highlights unexpected resilience in private consumption and investment in India.
- Robust growth in the services sector contributes to an upward revision of growth in 2023.
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Key Economic Indicators:
- Unemployment in India declined to 6.8% in the first quarter of 2023, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Labor force participation increased.
- Headline consumer price inflation in India has returned to within the central bank’s 2-6 percent tolerance band.
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Future Growth Projections:
- For the fiscal year FY25, the World Bank expects India's GDP growth rate to be 6.4%.
- In 2025 fiscal, the growth rate is projected to be 6.5%.
This detailed analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the current economic situation in India, the factors influencing growth, and the World Bank's projections for the near future.