Why Britain’s economy will overtake Germany’s (2024)

Why Britain’s economy will overtake Germany’s (1)Matthew Lynn

Our population’s growing – and we’re not in the eurozone

Why Britain’s economy will overtake Germany’s (2)

What’s the most surprising thing that could come out of the current economic upturn? A rapid revival in northern manufacturing? The City really getting behind small British businesses? Ed Balls admitting higher public spending wasn’t always the best way to promote growth? Any of these eventualities would be fairly amazing. But the biggest surprise would perhaps be this: a gradual realisation that the UK is on track to become the largest economy in Europe.

In the 19th century, at the height of the industrial revolution, the UK outproduced all of its European competitors. It steadily lost that position, however, ceding industrial leadership to the Germans and the French. In the next couple of decades that pattern will start to reverse. As the recovery gathers steam, we are likely to out-perform the rest of Europe. And that will change the way this country is perceived, both by global businesses and by investors.

The rankings of European economies are not set in stone. Right now, Germany is by far the biggest, with a GDP of $3.6 trillion. France stands at $2.7 trillion, the UK at $2.2 trillion, Italy at $2.1 trillion. If you count Russia as part of Europe, it slots into the table between us and the Italians. But over time, those positions have moved around. Back in 1987 the Italian economy overtook ours, a moment celebrated in that country as ‘Il Surpasso’, and indeed in the early 1990s Italy even overtook France. A couple of difficult decades later, Italy and Britain are tussling for fourth place.

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Why Britain’s economy will overtake Germany’s (3)

The next decade will be a lot better for us, however. Our recovery may look tepid by historical standards; the mountain of debt, public and private, is too enormous for a rapid acceleration of growth, and there is little sign of a surge of productivity to kick-start a really strong upturn.

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Why Britain’s economy will overtake Germany’s (2024)

FAQs

Will Britain's economy overtake Germany? ›

Predictions from UBS chimes with the latest predictions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has the UK outgrowing Germany in almost every year until 2028. The global watchdog also expects Britain's growth to outpace the eurozone in four of the next five years.

Why is the British economy so strong? ›

Among OECD members, the United Kingdom has a highly efficient and strong social security system, which comprises roughly 24.5% of GDP. The service sector dominates, contributing 82% of GDP; the financial services industry is particularly important, and London is the second-largest financial centre in the world.

Why is Germany's economy declining? ›

High interest rates, skilled labour shortages and the country's famed bureaucracy have, say industry figures, plunged the sector into crisis. In 2023 insolvencies in the construction sector rose more than 20%.

How did Germany overtake Britain? ›

After 1950, Germany overtook Britain in comparative productivity levels for the whole economy, primarily as a result of trends in services rather than trends in industry.

Is the UK's economy stronger than Germany's? ›

It means that the UK economy is now expected to have grown by 1.8% between the final quarter of 2019, before the COVID pandemic hit, and the second quarter of this year. That puts the country's economy ahead of both Germany (0.2%) and France (1.7%) during the same period.

Is the UK economy doing better than Germany? ›

Revised official statistics in September showed that the UK economy wasn't, contrary to earlier estimates, still smaller than prior to the pandemic. While the UK still lags behind the US on that score, and did slightly worse than France - it fared better than Germany.

Which country has the best economy? ›

The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No. 2. Even more striking, U.S. GDP was over five times that of the next two largest economies, Japan and Germany.

What are the positive effects of the British economy? ›

Impact of British Rule – Positive Aspects

Introduction of new technology and ideas: The introduction of new technology like steamships, telegraphs and trains completely changed the economic landscape of the Indian subcontinent.

Which is the richest country in the world? ›

In 2024, Luxembourg is the world's wealthiest nation by GDP per capita. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to evaluate the economic prosperity of nations and their citizens globally.

Is Germany in financial trouble? ›

Germany is struggling. It was the only G7 economy to shrink last year and is set to be the group's slowest-growing economy again this year, according to our latest projections. Some pundits say Germany's economic model is irreparably broken.

Does Germany have a strong or weak economy? ›

With a gross domestic product (GDP) of 4.121 billion euros in 2023, Germany is the third-largest economy in the world after the United States and China, and thus also the largest economy in Europe.

What's going on in Germany in 2024? ›

In 2024, Berlin will be in focus throughout Europe: The German capital is going to celebrate two charismatic events. In summer, the Olympic Stadium will host five matches and the final of the UEFA European Championship 2024.

Why did Germany lose against Britain? ›

Its lack of heavy bombers made it difficult to inflict strategically significant damage on British targets. The Luftwaffe's fighter force had no effective method of plotting the positions of Fighter Command aircraft and also lacked any means of ground-to-air control of its machines.

Why did Germany lose to Britain? ›

The decisive factors were British capability and determination, but German mistakes, before and during the battle, contributed significantly to the outcome. German rearmament was forbidden by the Treaty of Versailles at the end of World War I, but aircraft development continued under the guise of civil aviation.

Was Germany more powerful than Britain? ›

It's almost impossible to compare because the German army was massivly more powerful than the British army but the Royal Navy was much more powerful than the Imperial Navy. Britain had its overseas empire but Germany was more industrialised and had a significantly larger population within its European mainland empire.

Is the UK economy expected to grow faster than France and narrow gap with Germany? ›

The UK economy is expected to be 10.2 per cent larger than France in 2033, this is forecast to increase to 19.9 per cent by 2038. In that same period, the gap between the UK and Germany — which is nearly a third larger than the UK — is expected to narrow slightly to 28.8 per cent.

Why is Germany so much richer than the UK? ›

The dominance of different industries in the three economies is the cause of the divergence in GDP growth. Unlike the UK, Germany never abandoned its manufacturing base and sells China everything from vehicles to manufacturing equipment to electrical machinery to industrial chemicals.

Which country is better Germany or UK? ›

Both countries have a lot to offer, so it depends on what you are looking for in a country. If you want free tuition, affordable living costs, the ability to work while studying, and many job opportunities after graduation, then Germany is the place for you.

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