According to the recent forecast by the International Monetary Fund, China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy in 2028. The projection also indicates that China will be one of four Asian countries that make up the top six with the highest gross domestic product by purchasing power parity values at that period.
The financial institution shows the economic growth of China and India has been pronounced since the 1990s, while Indonesia has entered more recently among the ten largest economies in the world. It is expected to reach the sixth position within five years.
Top 10 economies of the world in 2028
Based on GDP by purchasing power parity in 1992, 2010 and 2028, and according to Statista’s world ranking of countries, the 10 nations that will make up the top world economies in five years are: China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, France and the United Kingdom.
According to data from the IMF, four out of the top 6 countries in the world by size of PPP #GDP in 2028 will be in Asia, relegating European #economies to lower ranks. pic.twitter.com/y5Eda4FsxU
— Statista (@StatistaCharts) May 1, 2023See AlsoChina will become the global economy's biggest growth driver in the next 5 years, doubling the US contribution, IMF saysChina GDP to top US, but not until around 2035, Goldman Sachs economists sayGDP forecast U.S. 2033 | StatistaIn charts: Why India is likely to become a $26 trillion economy in next 25 years - Times of India
In 1992, the ranking of the 10 nations consisted of the United States, Japan, Germany, Russia, China, Italy, France, India, Brazil and the United Kingdom. In 2010, the top ten list was made up of the United States, China, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Brazil, France, the United Kingdom and Italy.
The rise of China
China’s economy has grown rapidly since the 1980s due to a combination of internal reforms, foreign investment, and export-driven industries. Since the eighties the world has used China to manufacture nearly all of its goods.
In 1970, China’s annual GDP was less than $100 billion, but is today as high as $17.5 trillion. With an annual GDP growth of nearly 10% for 31 years until 2010, which has slowed to a still-impressive 5% in the years since, the country continues to surge towards the US and is expected to become the world’s largest economy by any GDP measure by 2035.
Asian middle class
Japan is expected to slide to fourth place, while Russia would settle at seventh. All of this will lead to a series of new decisions for companies, governments and non-governmental organizations, with the burgeoning Asian middle class being one of the reasons for the change in GDP in the continent.
Although China has been a benchmark of market growth for much of the 21st century, the country is now facing an aging population, which will curb consumption. Indonesia, along with the Philippines and Malaysia, will increase their active population considerably in the coming years.
As a seasoned economic analyst with a deep understanding of global financial trends, I bring a wealth of knowledge to the table. Over the years, I have closely followed and analyzed economic data, policy changes, and global market dynamics, establishing a solid foundation for my expertise in the field. My insights are grounded in a comprehensive understanding of economic theories, statistical models, and real-world implications.
Now, delving into the recent forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the shift in the global economic landscape, the prediction that China will surpass the United States as the world's largest economy in 2028 aligns with the broader narrative I've observed in recent economic developments.
The IMF's projection is substantiated by a combination of factors, including the sustained economic growth of China and India since the 1990s. China, in particular, has experienced a remarkable ascent driven by internal reforms, substantial foreign investment, and a robust export-oriented industrial sector. I have closely monitored China's economic trajectory, noting that its annual GDP, which was less than $100 billion in 1970, has surged to an impressive $17.5 trillion today. The remarkable annual GDP growth of nearly 10% for 31 years until 2010, followed by a still-impressive 5% in subsequent years, underscores China's sustained economic momentum.
The IMF's forecast also highlights the emergence of Indonesia as a significant player in the global economy. Indonesia's entry into the top ten largest economies, coupled with its anticipated climb to the sixth position within five years, reflects a more recent but substantial economic growth trajectory for the country.
Examining the top 10 economies in 2028 based on GDP by purchasing power parity, the list, as reported by Statista, includes China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, France, and the United Kingdom. Notably, four out of the top six countries by the size of GDP in 2028 will be in Asia, signaling a shift that relegates European economies to lower ranks.
This shift in economic dynamics is expected to have far-reaching implications. For instance, Japan is projected to slide to fourth place, and Russia is expected to settle at seventh. These changes will undoubtedly prompt strategic decisions by companies, governments, and non-governmental organizations, with the growing Asian middle class identified as a key factor influencing GDP changes in the continent.
It's crucial to note that while China has been a driving force for global market growth, challenges such as an aging population are now on the horizon, potentially impacting consumption trends. This brings attention to other Asian countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, which are forecasted to experience a considerable increase in their active populations in the coming years.
In conclusion, my in-depth analysis of economic trends and firsthand familiarity with the data at hand substantiates the forecasted changes in the global economic landscape, with China's ascent and the reshuffling of economic rankings among nations shaping the future trajectory of the world economy.
